Analyzing the Enemy: Appalachian State (2021 Boca Raton Bowl Edition)

As a Bowling Green resident and WKU alumna, I want to give a special thanks to App State Athletics and their fans for supporting my community and state during its time of need. Last Saturday's tornadoes devastated communities, families, and businesses, but your support and generosity brings a light to the darkness.

Day: Saturday, December 18, 2021

Time: 10:00 AM CST

Location: FAU Stadium

Network: ESPN

Betting line: App State -2.5 | O/U: 66.5

History: This will be the sixth meeting between the Hilltoppers and Mountaineers. App State leads the matchup 4-1. The two last faced each other on December 2, 2000 during the Division 1-AA Quarterfinal. They have not met since joining the FBS.

Quarterbacks

With one game left, Zappe is nose-to-nose with tying (and breaking) the nation's single season passing yards record and single season passing touchdowns record. 289 more yards would put Zappe past Texas Tech's B.J. Symon's 5,833 yards in 2003 while 5 more passing touchdowns would put him past LSU's Joe Burrow's 60 touchdowns in 2019.

Through thirteen games, WKU's Bailey Zappe has completed 442-of-639 pass attempts (69.2%) for 5,545 yards, 42650 yards per game, 8.7 yards per pass attempt, and 56 touchdowns as well as 11 interceptions. He ranks #1 in total passing yards, #1 in passing yards per game, #9 in completion percentage, #1 in passing touchdowns, and has the seventh-best passer rating in the nation. Zappe leads all of Conference USA's statistical passing categories. Of passers with at least 25 deep pass attempts, he ranks #2 in PFF's Highest passing grades on deep pass attempts (97.0).

During the C-USA Championship game, Zappe completed 36-of-59 pass attempts (61.0%) for 577 yards, 9.7 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Despite some dimes, the receiving corps struggled with dropped balls while the offensive line struggled with miscues that left Zappe in some vulnerable situations.

WKU's passing game has a success rate of 52.8%, EPA/Pass of 0.281, PPA of 0.48, and explosiveness of 1.5.

Chase Brice leads the Mountaineers having completed 227-of-367 pass attempts (61.9%) for 3,020 yards, 232.3 yards per game, 8.2 yards per pass attempt, and 23 touchdowns as well as 10 interceptions. Additionally, he has stayed in positive net rushing yardage with 65 carries for 174 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Brice has been inconsistent at best: completion percentages ranging from 40.0% to 74.1% and QBRs ranging from 32.5 to 92.0. He's been especially cold as of late. During the Sun Belt Conference Championship game against Louisiana, Brice went 12-of-30 (40.0%) for 119 yards, 3.9 yards per pass attempt, and 1 touchdown but did add 11 carries for 53 yards and 4.8 yards per carry.

App State's passing game has a success rate of 47.2%, EPA/Pass of 0.193, PPA of 0.4, and explosiveness of 1.7.

Advantage: WKU

Receivers

After Marshall made it a priority to contain Jerreth Sterns, the 2021 AP Second Team All-American responded with 10 receptions for 179 yards, 17.9 yards per reception, and 2 touchdowns during the C-USA Championship game. Now, the Zappe-Sterns connection gets to play in a grand finale on Saturday. Sterns ranks #1 nationally in total yards (1,718), #1 in receiving yards per game (132.2), tied #3 in receiving touchdowns (14), #1 in total receptions (137), and #1 in receptions per game (10.5).

The Hilltoppers' aerial attack is strengthened and made dangerous by the depth and explosiveness beyond Sterns. Mitchell Tinsley has 80 receptions for 1,299 yards, 99.9 yards per game, 16.2 yards per reception, and 12 touchdowns. Last "Analyzing the Enemy," I described Sterns and Tinsley as a 'yin-yang' combination and the C-USA Championship confirmed as much.

Daewood Davis adds 41 receptions for 707 yards, 54.4 yards per game, 17.2 yards per reception, and 8 touchdowns. Malachi Corley accounts for 71 receptions, 690 yards, 53.1 yards per game, 9.7 yards per reception, and 7 touchdowns. The entire unit averages 12.6 yards per reception, 10 receivers have at least 1 touchdown, and ranks #13 in PFF's Grade for Pass Routes.

App State's key receivers are Corey Xavier Sutton, Malik Williams, and Thomas Hennigan. Sutton leads with 61 receptions for 904 yards, 69.5 yards per game, 14.8 yards per reception, and 7 touchdowns. Williams and Hennigan are nearly neck-and-neck with only 4 receptions and 7 yards separating the two. They combine for 106 receptions, 1,559 yards, 119.9 yards per game, 14.7 yards per reception, and 12 touchdowns. Statistically, there's a pretty big drop-off between Williams/Hennigan and the remaining receivers. Compared to WKU, they may not have the monumental depth, but they are certainly efficient. The unit averages 13.3 yards per reception, 7 receivers have at least 1 touchdown, and they rank #5 in PFF's Grade for Pass Routes. The Mountaineers will be without Sutton due to injury.

Advantage: WKU

Running Backs

The two teams couldn't be more opposite. WKU leans on the Air Raid, passing at a 66.9% rate and rushing 33.1%. App State runs the ball at a 58.0% rate and passes 42.0% of plays. The pass is WKU's identity and the run is App State's identity.

WKU's Noah Whittington, Adam Cofield, and Kye Robichaux combine for 230 carries, 1,104 yards, 84.9 yards per game, 4.8 yards per carry, and 7 touchdowns. When utilized, they are efficient, successful at picking up the necessary yardage, and keep the defense honest. However, situational football came into play against UTSA in the championship game. Playing from behind and needing to score quick, WKU only rushed 16 times for -9.0 yards and 1 touchdown.

Regardless of yards per game, WKU's ground game boasts a success rate of 50.2%, EPA/Rush of -0.103, PPA of 0.12, and explosiveness of 0.7.

The ground game is the heartbeat of App State's offense with Nate Noel and Camerun Peoples are at the helm. Noel leads with 196 carries for 1,078 yards, 83.0 yards per game, 5.5 yards per carry, and 4 touchdowns. Through 11 games played, Peoples has 153 carries for 825 yards, 75.0 yards per game, 5.4 yards per carry, and 14 touchdowns. Together, they account for 34.2% of the team's total offense and 39.0% of the team's total plays. The dynamic duo is hard to stop and could cause some problems for WKU's defensive front (as it was the case vs. UTSA).

App State has a success rate of 43.3%, EPA/Rush of -0.018, PPA of 0.17, and explosiveness of 0.97.

Advantage: App State

Offensive Line

Despite uncharacteristic miscues vs. UTSA, WKU remains #1 in PFF's Grade for Pass Blocking with a grade of 91.2. They also rank #53 in PFF's Grade for Run Blocking with a 70.4. They've allowed 15 sacks and a stuff rate of 12.9%. FAU's stadium should provide an atmosphere more conducive to what the Toppers have been accustomed to all season long.

The Mountaineers' pass blocking ranks #70 with a PFF Grade of 62.6 while run blocking ranks #49 with a grade of 70.2. App State's o-line has allowed 13 sacks as well as a stuff rate of 15.5%.

Even with their recent struggles, WKU's overall body of work means...

Advantage: WKU

Secondary

WKU's secondary has allowed 296-of-484 pass attempts (61.1%) for 3,395 yards (261.2 yards per game), 7.0 yards per pass attempt, and 19 passing touchdowns. Their 19 interceptions are the second-most in the nation. While they can be ball hawks, the secondary is not immune to getting beat deep when it matters most.

Antwon Kincade, A.J. Brathwaite Jr., Kahlef Hailassie, Miguel Edwards, Kaleb Oliver, Beanie Bishop, and Omari Alexander combine for 327 total tackles, 14.0 tackles for loss, 1.0 sack, 11-of-19 interceptions, 23 pass breakups, 1 quarterback hurry, 2 fumble recoveries, and 2 forced fumbles. WKU ranks #26 in coverage with a PFF Grade of 81.3. They allow a passing success rate of 41.8%, PPA of 0.21, EPA/Pass of -0.024, and explosiveness of 1.5.

App State has allowed 218-of-395 pass attempts (55.1%) for 2,686 yards (206.6 yards per game), 6.8 yards per pass attempt, and 12 touchdowns as well as a total of 15 interceptions. They also allow a 37.1% success rate, PPA of 0.1, EPA/Pass of -0.115, and explosiveness of 1.5.

Steven Jones, Kaiden Smith, Ronald Clarke, Shaun Jolly, and Madison Clarke combine for 173 total tackles, 10.0 tackles for loss, 1.0 sack, 6-of-15 interceptions, 18 pass breakups, and 2 fumbles recoveries. Steven Jones leads the secondary with 48.0 total tackles, 3.0 tackles for loss, 5 interceptions, and 8 pass breakups The Mountaineers rank #27 in coverage with a PFF Grade of 81.2.

Chase Brice may not be [UTSA's] Frank Harris, but WKU's preparation may be similar. Like UTSA, App State will efficiently and effectively run the ball. But quarterback play - especially on deep passes - can either make or break WKU's secondary (and defense). Brice has more pass attempts in short yardage range, but almost 40.0% of his yards come from deep 20+ yard passes while 52.2% of his touchdown passes are at that distance.

Through thirteen games, App State's opponents have averaged 28.7 pass attempts per game. WKU has averaged 50.0 pass attempts per game. The 74.2% increase in pass attempts is pretty hefty but even more so since 41 pass attempts is the most the Mountaineers have faced...and that was Game 1 vs. East Carolina.

Advantage: Even

Linebackers

The Hilltoppers' linebacker corps is led by Will Ignont and Demetrius Cain. However, Ignont will not be available to play on Saturday. Cain is responsible for 53.0 total tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, 2 interceptions, and 3 quarterback hurries. Next man up would be Matthew Flint or Nicholas Day. No matter who, they cannot let the Noel/Peoples duo consistently get past the second-level, or else this could be a UTSA-Part III.

App State is stacked at the linebacker position. Pick your poison between D'Marco Jackson, Trey Cobb, Nick Hampton, or T.D. Roof. The four lead the defense and combine for 309 total tackles, 50.5 tackles for loss, 19.0 sacks, 6 interceptions, 11 pass breakups, 20 quarterback hurries, 2 fumble recoveries, and 3 forced fumbles. Jackson leads with 114.0 total tackles, 18.5 tackles for loss, 6.0 sacks, 1 interception, 5 pass breakups, 12 quarterback hurries, and 1 forced fumble.

App State ranks #52 in PFF's Grade for Pass Rush with a 78.2; WKU ranks #79 with a 73.0.

Although Zappe has proven he can overcome just about any obstacle to make the play, it doesn't negate the fact that WKU has recently shown some weakness against pressure. App State is absolutely loaded and productive at linebacker.

Advantage: App State

Defensive Line

Until the championship game, WKU had shown improvement against the run especially the latter half of the season. But during that last game, WKU's rushing defense allowed 54 carries for 304 yards, 5.6 yards per carry, and 5 touchdowns. This season, they've allowed 521 carries for 2,097 yards, 161.3 yards per game, 4.0 yards per carry, and 27 touchdowns. During that game, the line did bring an assortment of pressure though, with 1.0 sack, 5.5-of-7.0 tackles for loss, 1 pass breakup, and 2 quarterback hurries.

The d-line has totaled 408 tackles, 50.0 tackles for loss, 25.0 sacks, 1 interception, 16 pass breakups, 27 quarterback hurries, 5 fumble recoveries, and 10 forced fumbles. The Hilltoppers' rushing defense ranks #77 with a PFF Grade of 66.9. They allow a rushing success rate of 46.2%, PPA of 0.17, EPA/Rush of 0.045, and explosiveness of 0.93. Defensive end DeAngelo Malone leads the line with 88.0 total tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss, 8.0 sacks, 3 pass breakups, 6 quarterback hurries, and 4 forced fumbles. WKU will be without lineman Jeremy Darvin due to injury.

App State's rushing defense has allowed 453 carries for 1,549 yards, 119.2 yards per game, 3.4 yards per carry, and 16 touchdowns. Their rushing defense ranks #31 with a PFF Grade of 78.7. To this point, they've allowed a rushing success rate of 35.1%, PPA of 0.025, EPA/Rush of -0.093, and explosiveness of 1.12. The d-line totals 150 total tackles, 30.0 tackles for loss, 9.0 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 19 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 forced fumble. Caleb Spurlin leads with 37.0 total tackles, 4.0 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, and 2 quarterback hurries.

Advantage: App State

Special Teams

Punter John Haggerty has punted 30 times for 1,449 yards, 48.3 yards per punt, and has 11 punts land inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Brayden Narveson is 22-of-27 on field goals and 64-of-64 on extra point kicks. Jerreth Sterns and DeAngelo Wilson combine for 15 punt returns, 143 return yards, and 9.5 yards per return. Beanie Bishop, Joey Beljan, Jakairi Moses, Craig Burt Jr., and JaQues Evans total 37 kickoff returns for 850 yards and 22.97 yards per return, and 1 return touchdown.

App State's Xavier Subotsch has punted 48 times for 1,957 yards, 40.77 yards per punt, and has 23 punts inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Chandler Staton is 19-of-20 on field goals and 52-of-52 on extra point kicks. Malik Williams and Thomas Hennigan combine for 21 punt returns, 140 yards, and 6.67 yards per return. Williams, Hennigan, Jalen Virgil, and Milan Tucker combine for 35 kickoff returns for 978 yards, 27.9 yards per return, and 2 return touchdowns.

Advantage: Even

It is a battle of conference runner-ups. C-USA vs. Sun Belt. Both offense's should shine: WKU's passing firepower vs. App State's "run the ball down your throat." WKU's high tempo vs. App State's methodical pace. Points will be scored. WKU averages 43.08 points per game while App State averages 34.23 points per game. If both teams come out swinging offensively, it is a matter of whose defense can do just enough. Can WKU's rushing defense bounce back after letting Sincere McMormick have a field day? Can App State dial up enough pressure and coverage to contain Zappe and his roster of reliable receivers during the first half (before they come out swinging in the second half)?

Money says App State will win. The Mountaineers are 10-3, have never lost a bowl game, have a perceived more well-rounded offense, and a defense that doesn't let a lot get by. But the last hoorah from Zappe, Sterns, and [now Texas Tech OC] Zach Kittley is shaping up to be one for the record books. If WKU can improve from back-to-back sluggish starts and nearly come back against UTSA, there's no reason to believe WKU will be down for the count on Saturday.

WKU has been there, faced that. But App State has yet to face the likes of a WKU. In a game that could go any which way...

WKU - 38

App State - 35

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