Analyzing the Enemy: Auburn Tigers (11/19/22)

Day: Saturday, November 19

Time: 3:00PM CST

Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium

Network: SEC Network

Betting line: Auburn -5.5 | O/U: 54.0

History: Auburn leads the matchup 2-0 with a win in 2003 and 2005.

Quarterbacks

WKU's Austin Reed is 299-of-439 (68.1%) for 3,548 yards (322.5 YPG), 8.1 yards per pass attempt, has 31 touchdowns (2.8 per game), 7 interceptions, and a QBR of 67.5. His aggressive style of play has produced success on the ground, as well. Quarterback sneaks for downs (or scores) have had favorable outcomes, as Reed accounts for 75 carries, 171 yards, and 7 touchdowns. In last week's 45-10 win over Rice, Reed went 23-of-33 for 377 yards (69.7%), 11.4 yards per pass attempt, had 6 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 1 rushing touchdown, and a QBR of 88.6. The Division II to FBS gunslinger ranks No. 2 nationally in total yards and tied at No. 2 nationally in touchdowns.

Auburn's Robby Ashford is 104-of-208 (50.0%) for 1,434 yards (143.4 YPG), 6.9 yards per pass attempt, has 6 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and a QBR of 49.4. There's work to be done through the air - a combination of Ashford, his receivers, and breakdowns in pass protection - but he's a great runner who can extend plays with his legs. Through ten games, Ashford has 127 carries for 552 yards, 4.3 yards per carry, 5 touchdowns, and an average long per game of 25.7 yards. Given an average depth of target at 9.0 yards and an adjusted completion percentage at 63.8%, should Ashford and his receivers find a modicum of a groove and consistency, they would make major strides. In last week's win over Texas A&M, Ashford went 6-of-13 (46.2%) for 60 yards, 4.6 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, and a QBR of 23.6.

Advantage: WKU

Running Backs

WKU has 326 carries (29.6 per game) for 1,630 net yards (148.2 YPG), 5.0 yards per carry, and 14 rushing touchdowns. Against Rice, lead rusher Kye Robichaux took the field for the first time post-MTSU injury. During the three game stretch without Robichaux, Davion Ervin-Poindexter, Jaikari Moses, L.T. Sanders and, now, potentially Markese Stepp have helped the entire offense maintain a well-oiled machine. This is an efficient group that does what it must (and more) with a success rate of 44.1% and rush PPA of 0.198.

It is no secret that Auburn prefers 'totin the rock' between Tank Bigsby, Ashford, and Jarquez Hunter. On the season, Auburn has 403 total carries for 1,900 yards (190.0 per game), 4.7 yards per carry, and 20 touchdowns. Bigsby holds the lion share of carries amongst running backs with 146 attempts for 797 net yards, 5.5 yards per carry, and 8 touchdowns. Hunter adds 80 carries for 432 net yards, 5.4 yards per carry, and 6 touchdowns. Like UAB, you know what you're going to get...the Tigers are going to run the ball (see 60.3% rush rate) and are mostly successful when they do so (40.7% success rate). This is a unit who has rushed for 200+ yards against Mercer (FCS), San Jose State, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Texas A&M.

Advantage: Auburn

Receivers

A high-octane offense is not a high-octane offense without reliable, explosive receivers. For WKU, close your eyes and draw a name out of a hat; each of them can produce any given Saturday. Four receivers have at least 500 yards, which includes Malachi Corley, Daewood Davis, Jaylen Hall, and Michael Mathison. Corley leads with 70 receptions for 953 yards, 13.61 yards per catch, and 7 touchdowns. Behind Corley is Davis with 60 receptions for 837 yards, 13.95 yards per catch, and 7 touchdowns. Corley and Davis, especially, are big play threats and dominant in the open field. Davis - an Oregon transfer - is speedy while Corley leads all FBS receivers in yards after catch (YAC) with 765. And, although not consistently utilized in the pass game each week, WKU touts two impressive tight ends in Joshua Simon (15 receptions, 176 yards, 5 touchdowns) and Joey Beljan (10 receptions, 144 yards, and 3 touchdowns).

Leading Auburn's receivers is Ja'Varrius Johnson with 24 receptions for 444 yards, 18.5 yards per catch and 2 touchdowns. Koy Moore adds 17 receptions for 266 yards, 15.65 yards per catch. The physical and versatile [Jarquez] Hunter has 14 receptions for 209 yards, 14.93 yards per catch, and 2 touchdowns. And, there is some tight end usage with John Samuel Shenker, who accounts for 20 receptions, 208 yards, 10.4 yards per catch, and 1 touchdown; however, he wasn't targeted against Mississippi State and no receptions against Texas A&M.

Advantage: WKU

Offensive Line

Heading into Week 12, WKU's offensive line ranks #4 nationally in pass blocking with a PFF grade of 85.0 and ranks #79 in run blocking with a 58.0. The o-line has allowed 39.0 tackles for loss, 12.0 sacks, and 19 quarterback hurries. In terms of advanced metrics, WKU's front contributes an average 3.23 line yards and allows a 13.6% stuff rate.

Auburn's o-line has allowed 66.0 tackles for loss, 25.0 sacks, and 24 quarterback hurries. They rank #68 in pass blocking with a PFF grade of 64.0 and #86 in run blocking with a 56.8. Overall, the o-line has been pretty porous and not doing a whole lot to pave paths: contributing only 2.83 line yards and allows a 22.3% stuff rate. They did stand out against the Aggies, and improved play calling could be a factor.

Advantage: WKU

Secondary

WKU's secondary has allowed 237-of-383 pass attempts (61.9%) for 2,522 yards, (229.3 per game), 6.58 yards per pass attempt, 15 touchdowns, and account for 15-of-17 interceptions as well as 30-of-37 pass breakups. Kahlef Hailassie and Kaleb Oliver - ballhawks and menaces all over the field - lead the DBs with 111 total tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, 4.0 sacks, 5 interceptions, 9 pass breakups, 3 quarterback hurries, 2 fumble recoveries, and 3 forced fumbles. Heading into last week's matchup, Rice had a record of *potential* in terms of damage through the air and downfield. However, WKU held the Owls' passing game to 19-of-29 pass attempts (65.5%) for 161 yards, 5.5 yards per pass attempt, 0 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Again, you know what you're going to get out of Auburn (running and lots of it), but the Tops will have to respect the pass. WKU ranks #42 in PFF's grade for coverage with an 82.4.

Auburn's secondary has allowed 190-of-323 pass attempts (58.8%) for 2,028 yards (202.8 per game), 6.28 yards per pass attempt, and 10 touchdowns as well as forced 2-of-3 interceptions. Keionte Scott, Zion Puckett, and Donovan Kaufman combine for 123 total tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, 1 interception, 6 pass breakups, 2 quarterback hurries, and 2 forced fumbles. Auburn did face Mississippi State's Air Raid and 62 pass attempts, so Reed's 39.9 won't feel completely foreign to this group. But, of course, an uptick in pass attempts, efficiency, and trying to stay in front of explosive receivers could prove to be overwhelming. Auburn ranks #32 in coverage with an 85.1.

Advantage: Auburn

Linebackers

JaQues Evans, Derrick Smith, Will Ignont, and Jaden Hunter have a combined 242 total tackles, 21.0 tackles for loss, 12.5 sacks, 1 interception, 6 pass breakups, 6 quarterback hurries, 3 fumble recoveries, and 1 forced fumble. Last week, Smith and Ignont combined for 14 total tackles while Evans had 4 total tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, and 1 fumble recovery touchdown. The linebackers will have their hands full, trying to stop the Tigers' ground game from getting past the second level. They'll need to focus on the run and have the ability to react in passing situations.

Auburn's Own Pappoe, Derick Hall (edge), and Cam Riley combine for 177 total tackles, 15.5 tackles for loss, 9.0 sacks, 1 interception, 2 pass breakups, 9 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 4 forced fumbles. Comparatively, WKU operates a more balanced offense. Minimizing the Tops' efficiency on the ground and generating a consistent pass rush could make WKU uncomfortable to the point they either play conservative, stall out, or make uncharacteristic mistakes.

Advantage: Even

Defensive Line

The Hilltoppers have allowed 424 carries for 1,596 yards, 145.1 yards per game, 3.8 yards per carry, and 12 rushing touchdowns. Juwuan Jones leads the group with 37 total tackles, 3.0 tackle for loss, 1.5 sacks, 1 pick six, 2 quarterback hurries, and 1 fumble recovery. Lorenzo Hernandez, Brodric Martin, and Terrion Thompson combine for 67 tackles, 8.0 tackles for loss, 5.0 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 9 quarterback hurries, and 1 forced fumble. Again, limit Auburn's productivity on the ground. WKU's run defense ranks #80 with a PFF of 72.0 and have allowed a rush success rate of 43.3% and PPA/rush of 0.082.

Auburn has allowed 384 carries for 1,814 yards, 181.4 yards per game, 4.7 yards per carry, and 24 rushing touchdowns. Defensive end Colby Wooden leads with 42 total tackles, 11.0 tackles for loss, 6.0 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 9 quarterback hurries, 2 fumble recoveries, and 3 forced fumbles.and 5 quarterback hurries. Marcus Harris has 14 total tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, 1 pass breakup, and 3 quarterback hurries. The Tigers' run defense ranks #100 with a PFF of 65.6 and have allowed a rush success rate of 46.5% and PPA/rush of 0.201.

Auburn's numbers aren't great here, but WKU has a bigger challenge when facing the run.

Advantage: Auburn

Special Teams

Punter Tom Ellard has punted 34 times for 1,478 yards, 43.47 yards per punt, with 14 landing inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Brayden Narveson is 13-of-18 on field goal attempts and 54-of-54 on extra point kicks. Upton Stout and Jaylen Hall combine for 11 punt returns for 126 yards (11.5 yards per return). Additionally, Hall boasts a punt return touchdown. Michael Mathison has 11 kick returns for 239 yards and 21.73 yards per return.

Auburn punter Oscar Chapman has punted 48 times for 2,122 yards, 44.21 yards per punt, and has 15 punts land inside of the 20-yard line. Kickers Anders Carlson and Alex McPherson are 14-of-20 on field goal attempts and Christian VanSickle is 9-of-9 on field goal attempts and 23-of-23 on extra point kicks. Scott, Dazalin Worsham, and Johnson combine for 16 punt returns for 128 yards, and 8 yards per return. The kickoff return crew - led by Hunter - has 17 returns for 264 yards, and 15.53 yards per return,

Advantage: Even

The Hilltoppers go into this game with a bad taste in their mouth from their 33-30 OT loss to Indiana and feel like that is a game they should have won. Statistically, WKU holds some key advantages over Auburn. But how do those stats stack up when facing SEC-level talent and the energy interim head coach Cadillac Williams has brought? The 5.5 point spread is the telltale; you'll see a WKU team who has been clicking on all cylinders as of late face an Auburn team that has seen positive changes with Williams.

WKU - 27

Auburn - 24

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