Analyzing the Enemy: Charlotte 49ers (11/5/22)

Day: Saturday, November 5

Time: 11:00AM CST

Location: Jerry Richardson Stadium

Network: CBS Sports Network

Betting line: WKU -16 | O/U: 72.5

History: WKU leads the series 3-1.

Quarterbacks

WKU's Austin Reed is 253-of-368 (68.8%) for 2,762 yards (306.8 YPG), 7.5 yards per pass attempt, has 22 touchdowns (2.4 per game), 6 interceptions, and a QBR of 64.9. Last week, Reed went 24-of-49 (59.2%) for 320 yards, 6.5 yards per pass attempt, threw for 1 touchdown, 1 interception, and had a QBR of 37.1.

Charlotte's Chris Reynolds is 136-of-210 (64.8%) for 1,799 (257.0 YPG), 8.6 yards per pass attempt, has 19 touchdowns (2.7 per game), 9 interceptions, and a QBR of 68.6. Last week, and in one of his best games of the season, Reynolds went 16-of-19 (84.2%) for 254 yards, 13.4 yards per pass attempt, threw for 5 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and had a QBR of 94.3. However, his season has seen some lows, especially in those losses to UAB and FIU.

Both quarterbacks have something to prove going into this matchup. For Reynolds, can he back up last week's performance? For Reed, can he - as well as the Hilltoppers - bounce back?

Historically, yards per pass attempt and passing efficiency have a high correlation with wins. Reynolds takes the yards per pass attempt while Reed maintains the higher EPA. But given what Charlotte's passing defense has allowed...

Advantage: WKU

Running Backs

WKU has 287 carries (31.2 per game) for 1,381 net yards (153.4 YPG), 4.8 yards per carry, and 13 rushing touchdowns. The Tops have been without lead rusher Kye Robichaux for two weeks, but true freshman L.T. Sanders has stepped up and made an immediate impact. During the FIU, UAB, and North Texas games, Sanders has accumulated 33 carries for 269 yards, 8.2 yards per carry, and 1 touchdown. Davion Ervin-Poindexter has seen an uptick in production, as well. Between the UAB and North Texas games, Ervin-Poindexter has 26 carries for 145 yards, and 5.6 yards per carry.

The 49ers have totaled 262 carries (29.1 per game) for 980 net yards (108.9 YPG), 3.7 yards per carry, and 10 rushing touchdowns. Shadrick Byrd leads the group with 100 carries for 452 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, and 4 touchdowns. In route to Charlotte's program record 56 points, Byrd had a big day, contributing 141 all-purpose yards and 1 touchdown.

Advantage: WKU

Receivers

Malachi Corley leads the Tops' receiver room with 58 receptions for 701 yards, 12.1 yards per catch and 6 touchdowns. Close behind is Daewood Davis with 52 receptions for 699 yards, 13.4 yards per catch, and 5 touchdowns. Despite the outcome last Saturday, Corley and Davis as well as Jaylen Hall, Michael Mathison, and tight end Joshua Simon had a statistically sound day in terms of receptions and yards. But big gains and momentum were often nullified by penalties or three-and-outs.

Leading Charlotte's receivers is Elijah Spencer with 43 receptions for 802 yards, 18.65 yards per reception and 7 touchdowns. The sophomore has had three games of 100+ yards and, last week, had 5 receptions for 84 yards, 16.8 yards per catch, and 3 touchdowns. His 802 yards are good for second-most in the conference while his 89.1 yards per game are for third-most. Grant DuBose and Victor Tucker combine for 84 receptions for 937 yards, 11.2 yards per catch, and 14 touchdowns.

These are two talented groups of receivers. A key difference here, though, is depth and the secondaries each will be facing.

Advantage: WKU

Offensive Line

Heading into Week 10, WKU's offensive line ranks #5 nationally in pass blocking with a PFF grade of 85.3 and ranks #85 in run blocking with a 56.8. The o-line has allowed 37.0 tackles for loss, 11.0 sacks, and 14 quarterback hurries.

Charlotte's o-line has allowed 46.0 tackles for loss, 25.0 sacks, and 46 quarterback hurries. They rank #107 in pass blocking with a PFF grade of 51.3 and #72 in run blocking with a 62.4.

Advantage: WKU

Secondary

On the season, WKU's secondary has allowed 199-of-320 pass attempts (62.2%) for 2,138 yards, (237.56 per game), 6.7 yards per pass attempt, 14 touchdowns, and account for 9-of-11 interceptions as well as 23-of-30 pass breakups. Kahlef Hailassie leads the DBs with 52 total tackles, 8.0 tackles for loss, 3.0 sacks, 2 interceptions, 8 pass breakups, 1 quarterback hurry, 1 fumble recovery, and 2 forced fumbles. Kaleb Oliver adds 41 total tackles, 1.0 tackle for loss, 2 interceptions, 1 pass breakup, and 1 quarterback hurry. Heading into the North Texas-WKU matchup, North Texas' passing attack was inconsistent at best; but, when quarterback Austin Aune connected with his receivers, it was for big, explosive plays. WKU allowed the Mean Green passing attack to be, both, consistent (20-of-28) and explosive. In North Texas' first two drives, WKU allowed strikes of 25, 28, and 56 yards: such plays resulting in touchdowns. WKU cannot afford to get beat deep, nor get beat deep early.

Charlotte's secondary has allowed 170-of-242 pass attempts (70.4%) for 2,460 yards (273.33 per game), 10.17 yards per pass attempt, and 21 touchdowns as well as forced 5-of-6 interceptions. Wayne Jones, Geo Howard, and Solomon Rogers combine for 132 total tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, 3 interceptions, 6 pass breakups, 2 quarterback hurries, and 1 forced fumble. However, Jones is listed as out with a lower leg injury ahead of tomorrow's game. Statistically, WKU's passing game could have a big day barring self-inflicted mistakes.

Advantage: WKU

Linebackers

JaQues Evans, Derrick Smith, Will Ignont, and Jaden Hunter have a combined 202 total tackles, 17.5 tackles for loss, 9.5 sacks, 1 interception, 6 pass breakups, 3 quarterback hurries, 2 fumble recoveries, and 1 forced fumble. Last week, Evans amassed 15 total tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 1.0 sack, and 1 quarterback hurry.

For the 49ers, Prince Bemah, Chase Monroe, B.J. Turner, and Tank Robinson combine for 133 total tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, 9.5 sacks, 1 interception, 2 pass breakups, 6 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 forced fumble.

Advantage: WKU

Defensive Line

The Hilltoppers have allowed 337 carries for 1,267 yards, 140.8 yards per game, 3.8 yards per carry, and 11 rushing touchdowns. Juwuan Jones leads the group with 32 total tackles, 3.0 tackle for loss, 1.5 sacks, 1 pick six, 2 quarterback hurries, and 1 fumble recovery. WKU was able to hold North Texas to under their season average of 222.6 yards per game, but couldn't generate a consistent and timely pass rush to force mistakes. They should be able to do so against - what appears to be - a porous Charlotte o-line.

Charlotte has allowed 390 carries for 2,098 yards, 233.1 yards per game, 5.4 yards per carry, and 24 rushing touchdowns. Amir Siddiq leads with 38 total tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 3.0 sacks, and 4 quarterback hurries, and 1 forced fumble.

Advantage: WKU

Special Teams

Punter Tom Ellard has punted 33 times for 1,431 yards, 43.36 yards per punt, with 13 landing inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Brayden Narveson is 11-of-16 on field goal attempts and 40-of-40 on extra point kicks. Upton Stout and Jaylen Hall combine for 10 punt returns for 80 yards (8.0 yards per return) and Michael Mathison has 10 kick returns for 215 yards and 21.5 yards per return.

Charlotte punter Bailey Rice has punted 33 times for 1,422 yards, 43.09 yards per punt, and has 12 punts land inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Antonio Zita is 1-of-2 on field goal attempts and 31-of-31 on extra point kicks. DuBose and Tucker combine for 10 punt returns for 82 yards (8.2 yards per return) and Byrd has 24 kick returns for 518 yards and 21.58 yards per return.

Advantage: Even

Charlotte's interim head coach Pete Rossomando showed creativity during the Rice game: a fake punt, kick return reverse, and an onside kick. Early explosive passes and touchdowns from North Texas forced WKU to play from behind. WKU can't afford to fall for trickery and deception against Charlotte as the 49ers displayed a more than capable offense that can put up points.

The Tops should be able to bounce back, but not without a bit of an early fight from the 49ers.

WKU - 38

UNT - 24

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