Analyzing the Enemy: FIU Panthers (9/24/22)

Day: Saturday, September 24

Time: 2:30PM CST

Location: Houchens Industries - L.T. Smith Stadium

Network: CBS Sports Network

Betting line: WKU -31.0 | O/U: 65.5

History: WKU leads the matchup 9-6 and are 3-0 since 2019.

Quarterbacks

Now with three games under his belt, Austin Reed has proven to be an efficient, reliable, and explosive playmaker. In the IU heartbreaker, Reed went 33-of-43 (76.7%) for 329 yards, 2 passing touchdowns, and 1 interception. He added 10 carries for 18 yards and 1 touchdown. Since the home opener, Reed has bettered his game-to-game accuracy with completion rates of 58.8%, 71.0%, and 76.2% most recently against IU. Within the league, Reed has the highest efficiency rating.

FIU hasn't had the same success or consistency at the quarterback position. During the third quarter of Game 1, Gunnar Holmerg suffered a concussion. Grayson James took over and went 16-of-31 (51.6%) for 207 yards, 6.7 yards per pass attempt, and 4 touchdowns. James' efforts helped the Panthers come back and defeat Bryant 38-37 in overtime. However, in Game 2 against Texas State, James went 30-of-47 (63.8%) for 196 yards, 4.2 yards per pass attempt, and threw 2 interceptions. Then, during the final drive, Haden Carlson went 5-of-9 for 55 yards.

Advantage: WKU

Running Backs

With 465 total rushing yards, WKU is averaging 155 rushing yards per game: 52.5 more yards per game compared to 2022. It seems like the Tops have opted for a running back by committee approach, and last week, it was Kye Robichaux who shined with 14 carries, 135 yards, and 9.6 yards per carry. Through three games, Robichaux also leads the ground attack with 26 carries, 202 yards, 7.8 yards per carry, and 1 touchdown. The shifty Davion Ervin-Poindexter has 30 carries for 103 yards, 3.4 yards per carry, and 1 touchdown while Jakairi Moses has 13 carries for 76 yards and 5.8 yards per carry.

Through two games, FIU is averaging 24 carries and 64.5 yards per game. EJ Wilson Jr. accounts for 17 carries, 61 yards, 3.6 yards per carry, and 1 touchdown. In Game 1 against Bryant, Wilson was responsible for the Panthers' game-winning, two point conversion reception. FIU has not done much by way of running nor do the Panthers have eye-popping numbers, but they do have a success rate of 43.6%.

Advantage: WKU

Receivers

WKU's receivers and tight ends are a lethal combination of speed, depth, and explosiveness. Once they gain momentum, it his hard to stop them. Receiver Daewood Davis leads with 16 receptions for 279 yards, 17.4 yards per catch, and 2 touchdowns. Malachi Corley adds 17 receptions for 150 yards, 8.8 yards per catch, and 3 touchdowns. But it doesn't stop there...Jaylen Hall, Craig Burt Jr., Dalvin Smith, and Michael Mathison are also likely for at least one big play per game. Then, add tight ends Josh Simon and Joey Beljan who create mismatch issues for defenses. Simon had a big 47-yard touchdown pass against Hawai'i and it was Beljan's turn against Indiana. On 2nd & 8 in the 1st quarter, Reed connected with Beljan for a 26-yard touchdown: allowing WKU to take a 7-3 lead with the PAT.

Biletnikoff Award watchlist member (as is Davis) Tyrese Chambers leads with 18 receptions, 156 yards, 8.8 yards per reception, and 2 touchdowns. He is the Panthers' most utilized player overall as well as on 3rd downs and passing downs. With defenses trying to diminish his impact, guys like Kris Mitchell and tight ends Josiah Miamen and Rivaldo Fairweather could step up and become more germane.

Advantage: WKU

Offensive Line

Heading into Week 4, WKU's offensive line ranks #4 nationally in pass blocking with a PFF grade of 84.4 and ranks #69 in run blocking with a 61.6. Prior to the IU game, they had not allowed a single sack, and during last Saturday's game allowed 2.

FIU's o-line has allowed 4 sacks, 15.0 tackles for loss, and 8 quarterback hurries. They rank #131 in pass blocking with a grade of 20.3 and rank #128 in run blocking with a grade of 42.8. Youth and inexperience from the offensive line has been apparent; the quarterback(s) are often pressured and the ground game has not been able to make a lot of forward progress.

Advantage: WKU

Secondary

The Tops' secondary hung around and played tough against last week's Big Ten opponent. WKU entered the game with 4 pass breakups between the Austin Peay and Hawai'i game; against IU, they added 6 more. On the day, the unit allowed 33-of-55 pass attempts (60.0%) for 364 yards, 6.6 yards per pass attempt, and 2 touchdowns. However, penalties - warranted or not - provided IU opportunistic field position.

Kahlef Hailassie, Kaleb Oliver, Dominique Bradshaw, Upton Stout, Talique Allen, Davion Williams, and C.J. Jones combine for 70 total tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, 3.0 sacks, 4-of-7 interceptions, 9 pass breakups, 2 quarterback hurries, and 1 forced fumble. Generally ball hawks (and still remain), they did allow 7 passes to go 15+ yards.

In terms of passing depth, most of FIU's completed passes and yards come from behind the line of scrimmage and 0-9 yards. Of the three competing quarterbacks, Grayson James has the most attempts, completions, yards, and touchdowns at the medium (10-19 yards) and deep level (20+ yards). If James doesn't start, the DBs probably don't need to worry about getting beat deep and can focus on the run and shorter passes: keeping the ball in front of them so they can be more aggressive in coverage. If James does start, the Tops will need to at least respect the deep ball.

Meanwhile, FIU has allowed 44-of-71 pass attempts (62.0%) for 575 yards, 8.1 yards per pass attempt, and 5 touchdowns as well as 11 passes of 15+ yards. CJ Christian, Demetrius Hill, Jamal Potts, Adrian Cole, and Henry Gray combine for 50 total tackles, 2.0 tackles for loss, 1 interception, 4 pass breakups, 2 quarterback hurries, and 1 forced fumble.

Advantage: WKU

Linebackers

JaQues Evans, Will Ignont, and now Derrick Smith lead the linebackers (and the defense) in terms of total tackles. The three combine for 64 total tackles, 7.0 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 1 pass breakup, and 1 quarterback hurry. Aaron Key and Matthew Flint have one fumble recovery, each. Smith becoming a consistent playmaker adds depth and dimension to the linebacking corps and certainly helps when bringing the pressure.

Donovan Manuel and Gaethan Bernadel also lead their linebacking corps as well as entire defense with 39 total tackles, 4.0 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, 1 pass breakup, and 1 fumble recovery. Alex Nobles adds 6 total tackles, a team high of 3.0 tackles for loss, and 1.0 sack.

Advantage: WKU

Defensive Line

Through two games, WKU's defensive line has totaled 43.0 total tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, 1 pick-six, and 11 quarterback hurries. Juwuan Jones leads the group with 16 total tackles, 1.5 tackle for loss, 0.5 sacks, 1 pick six, and 1 quarterback hurry. They've been an ever-present, contributing force and last week held a potentially explosive ground game to just 120 yards, 3.4 yards per carry, and 1 rushing touchdown. Specifically, they held the Shaun Shivers threat to 66 yards and 3.9 yards per carry. Brodric Martin had a busy day with 6 total tackles, 0.5 tackles for loss, 0.5 sacks, and 1 quarterback hurry.

FIU is going to try to pass the ball as they've yet to get anything going on the ground. WKU's defensive line and linebackers will have to bring early pressure and force whoever the quarterback into costly mistakes.

The Panthers have allowed 80 carries for 347 yards, 173.5 yards per game, 4.3 yards per carry, and 4 rushing touchdowns. Latarie Kinsler, Jeramy Passmore, Davon Strickland, and Will Prendergast combine for 17.0 total tackles and 3.0 tackles for loss, and 1.0 sack.

Advantage: WKU

Special Teams

Punter Tom Ellard punted 12 times for 529 yards, 44.08 yards per punt, with 4 landing inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Brayden Narveson is 4-of-7 on field goal attempts and 15-of-15 on extra point kicks. Upton Stout has returned 5 punts for 29 yards (5.8 yards per return) and Michael Mathison has 2 kick returns for 49 yards and 24.5 yards per return.

FIU punter Daton Montiel has punted 12 times for 539 yards, 44.92 yards per punt, and has 3 punts land inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Chase Gabriel is 3-of-3 on field goal attempts and 3-of-3 on extra point kicks. Tyrese Chambers has 2 punt returns for 15 yards and 7.5 yards per return. Lexington Joseph and EJ Wilson Jr. combine for 9 kickoff returns, 260 yards, and 28.89 yards per return.

Advantage: Even

The FIU game should be fairly similar to that of Hawai'i: two teams with new head coaches, trying to rebuild. It does bear repeating that WKU cannot sleep on the Panthers, especially when they have playmakers like Tyrese Chambers. Over the course of the last three seasons, WKU has averaged a scoring margin of 12.6 when playing FIU.

WKU - 45
FIU - 17

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