Analyzing the Enemy: Illinois Fighting Illini (9/9/17)

Heading into the week 2 matchup, I am taking a different approach to predicting the game outcome. I will still conduct position group analysis and determine which team has the advantage. In addition, I will be breaking down some in-depth stats that I have not discussed before.

For example, comparing two quarterbacks based solely on passing yards does not tell the whole narrative. In the Battle of the Bluegrass, Tim Boyle threw 320 yards while Mike White threw 294. While Boyle had more yards, his team was playing from behind the entire game. When you are playing from behind, you pass more for quick, positive yardage. At the end of the day, White was the better quarterback: having a better completion percentage, a better yards per pass average, and a higher quarterback rating. In the same respect, WKU's receivers averaged more yards per reception on less receptions than that of EKU.

Day: Saturday, September 9

Time: 7:00PM CST

Location: Memorial Stadium

Network: Big Ten Network (BTN)

Series Record: Illinois leads 1-0. The last meeting was in 2014; the Illini defeated WKU 42-34.

Betting Line: WKU by 7.0 via ESPN.com (as of 9/8/17)

Quarterback

It should come at no surprise that White is the better quarterback in this matchup. White was relatively consistent with his averages from 2016 during the game against EKU. While White may have not produced the same 300+ yards and 2+ touchdowns that fans had become accustomed to, keep in mind that:

1) Aside from Lucky Jackson and Nacarius Fant, coach Sanford was giving a decent amount of playing time and experience to other receivers, as well. Xavier Lane was sitting out due to suspension.

2) It was the first game.

3) WKU ran the ball more than they passed. There was no reason to pad White's stats when WKU was going to win, and you must establish a run game early in the season.

Although Crouch played very little in 2016, some of his numbers were still reflected as a starting quarterback against Ball State. Crouch threw 1 interception, 1 touchdown, about the same yards per pass attempt, averaged nearly the same for average passer rating, and < 60% completion rate. He did pass for more yards, as well as had more attempts and completions (due to his starting role).

Considering, both, quarterback talent and the defense's they will respectively face...

Advantage: WKU

Running backs

As mentioned previously, EKU was the perfect game to establish any run game. Some statistics would read differently if we considered gross yardage. For example, WKU had 118.0 gross rushing yards and 3.7 gross yards per rush attempt. The above stats, however, include lost yards as a result of White being sacked 3.0 times. Also, WKU was without scatback Quinton Baker (suspension) during the opening game. Although D'Andre Ferby (57 yards, 2 touchdowns) and Marquez Trigg (61 yards, 1 touchdown) had a good game, Baker will add dimension to the running corps. With Baker, the run game will turn into a three-headed monster that is hard for opposing defenses to control.

Illinois' gross yardage would remain the same as the table indicates. Senior Kendrick Foster had a quiet game of only 15 yards on 8 attempts. This was pretty uncharacteristic of Foster who posted 720 rushing yards for 7 touchdowns (average 60 yards per game) in 2016. Head coach Lovie Smith said "We play multiple running backs...Some days, it's just not quite there the way you like. Just keep grinding. Kendrick is a good football player. Some days when (they're) not at the top of (their) game, you have to look at option two, maybe option three."

Also, let's consider that WKU's defensive line has been solid since 2016: limiting opponents to 74.8 yards per game in the last eight games. Illinois defensive line allowed 171.0 rushing yards against Ball State.

Advantage: WKU

Receivers

*also see passing stats

If Hilltopper fans were at all worried about receivers in 2017, their concerns were [fairly] well laid to rest. WKU was able to put up 264 receiving yards against a scrappy EKU secondary. Lucky Jackson led with 144 yards and 1 touchdown. One of the most exciting plays of the game was a 66 yard bomb from White to Jackson. 2016 did not see your typical tight end group, but Deon Yelder was able to put up 40 yards for the Tops against EKU...yet another positive to come out of the game. Xavier Lane will be returning this weekend, so receivers...receive...another boost.

By contrast, Illinois posted just 1 more yard than that of Lucky Jackson's total. The Illini were pressured all game by Ball State's secondary who, also, came up with an interception. However, Illinois had 12 fewer pass attempts than the Hilltoppers.

There are a lot of factors that play into deciding who receives the advantage for this position group: 1) sheer talent, 2) quarterback, 3) opposing secondary.

Advantage: WKU by a smidgen

Offensive line

Against EKU, the Hilltoppers' offensive line allowed just 1 quarterback hurry from the Colonels' defensive line. Alarmingly, though, the o-line allowed 3 sacks on White. It was difficult to distinguish if EKU's defensive line was putting up an impressive fight, WKU's offensive line was sluggish, or a combination of both.

Likewise, the Illini offensive line struggled against Ball State's defensive line. The o-line allowed 1 quarterback hurry from the Cardinals' defensive line and 4 sacks on Crouch.

Advantage: Tie

Secondary

...basically, I could not fit every statistical category into the Yahoo Rivals table template, so I stuck to those most applicable to the secondary: tackles, interceptions, pass deflections.

What you see are two complete, opposite sides of the spectrum. WKU's secondary accounted for 36/65 total tackles (55%) while Illinois' put up 23/94 total tackles (30.8%). This is not entirely surprising since EKU had 46 pass attempts while Ball State had 34 pass attempts. One opponent was airing the ball out more than the other.

Both secondaries will need to improve heading into week 2. Illinois struggled against Ball State's Riley Neal and receivers; the Illini will face an even better quarterback and receivers this week. Meanwhile, WKU has the coverage, but must create some turnovers.

Advantage: Slight edge to WKU, but this could easily be a tie

Linebackers

...again, I could not include ever statistical category.

You want your linebackers to be sharks: always moving, always hunting. The Illini did well at this, which resulted in 0.5 sacks and 1 interception. The interception (and a missed FG by Ball State) turned the game in an entirely different direction.

WKU linebackers only registered 16 total tackles, no sacks, no pass deflections, no quarterback hurries, no interceptions, and no forced fumbles. Playing conservative against an FCS squad, it is hard to determine if this is attributed to the number of plays ran, coverage calls, or defensive play calls.

Advantage: Illinois

Defensive Line

I could break down the stats, or I could shoot it straight.

One defensive line helped hold their opponent to 25 total rushing yards, while the other allowed 171 rushing yards.

Advantage: WKU

This game could go 100 different directions.

To say that WKU's performance against EKU was "concerning" or indicative of future performance is a bit presumptuous. While there is no confirmation nor denial that the Hilltoppers played conservatively against their FCS opponent, understand that:

1) It was the first game.

2) Sanford & Co. were breaking in some new guys. Experience is everything.

3) There were players sitting out due to suspension.

4) Why would you risk injury when your next game is against a Big Ten opponent AND you have a chance to win that matchup?

5) Sanford explained, against EKU, the Tops played a more traditional style of football. He went on to state that WKU will look different in every matchup.

WKU has more experience and depth than Illinois, so winning is a very solid possibility. However, against a Big Ten opponent - as evident by Ball State vs. Illinois - WKU will HAVE to create some turnovers. Additionally, the 0-line must protect White. It will be a fast-paced game that, likely, sees a lot of plays, man-to-man coverage, and quick passes.

Prediction

1st Half: 21-17

2nd Half: 14-13

WKU wins 35 - 30