Analyzing the Enemy: Marshall Thundering Herd (11/27/21)

Day: Saturday, November 27

Time: 2:30PM CST

Location: Joan C. Edwards Stadium

Network: CBS Sports Network

Betting line: Marshall -1.0 | O/U: 74.5

History: This will be the thirteenth meeting between WKU and Marshall with the Herd leading the series 8-4. Marshall has won the last four games in the series.

Quarterbacks

Through eleven games, WKU's Bailey Zappe has completed 381-of-532 pass attempts (71.62%) for 4,640 yards, 421.82 yards per game, 8.7 yards per pass attempt, and 48 touchdowns as well as 9 interceptions. He ranks #1 in total passing yards, #1 in passing yards per game, #7 in completion percentage, #1 in passing touchdowns, and has the sixth-best passer rating in the nation. Zappe leads all of Conference USA's statistical passing categories. Of passers with at least 26 [deep pass] attempts, he ranks #1 in PFF's Highest passing grades on deep pass attempts (96.9).

Against FAU, Zappe went 39-of-49 (79.5%) for 470 yards, 9.6 yards per pass attempt, and 6 touchdowns as well as 1 interception and 1 pick six.

WKU's passing game has a success rate of 53.7%, EPA/Pass of 0.291, PPA of 0.5, and explosiveness of 1.5.

Grant Wells leads the Herd having completed 270-of-404 pass attempts (66.8%) for 3,360 yards, 305.5 yards per game, 8.3 yards per pass attempt, and 15 touchdowns as well as 12 interceptions. He adds 53 carries for 61 yards, 1.2 yards per carry, and 6 rushing touchdowns. In Marshall's win at Charlotte, Wells went 21-of-28 (75.0%) for 267 yards, 9.5 yards per pass attempt, and threw for 2 touchdowns.

Marshall's passing game has a success rate of 48.1%, EPA/Pass of 0.052, PPA of 0.3, and explosiveness of 1.4.

Wells is a good, young player, but he can make questionable decisions at times. He leads the conference in thrown picks (12). Zappe has been commanding the offense and chasing records since Game 1.

Advantage: WKU

Receivers

WKU's receiver corps now has two 1,000+ yard receivers: Jerreth Sterns and Mitchell Tinsley. Sterns ranks #1 nationally in total yards (1,511), #1 in receiving yards per game (137.3), tied at #3 in receiving touchdowns (12), #1 in total receptions (123), #1 in receptions per game (11.2), and tied at #1 in PFF's Grade for Pass Routes of 20+ Yards. Tinsley ranks #19 nationally in total yards (1,042). Additionally, he averages 94.7 yards per game, 16.8 yards per reception, and has 10 total touchdowns. In the last two games, Tinsley has 19 receptions for 362 yards, 19.1 yards per reception, and 4 touchdowns.

The Hilltoppers have an immense amount of depth and they are all able to make plays in tight windows. Zappe will also connect with Malachi Corely, Daewood Davis, and [lately] tight end Joey Beljan. Corley has 62 receptions for 574 yards, 9.3 yards per reception, 52.18 yards per game, and 6 touchdowns. Davis has 35 receptions for 547 yards, 15.63 yards per reception, 49.73 yards per game, and 6 touchdowns. Beljan - mainly utilized in red zone situations - has 9 receptions for 82 yards, 9.11 yards per reception, 7.45 yards per game, and 5 touchdowns.

On the season, the entire unit averages 12.4 yards per reception, 10 receivers have at least 1 touchdown, and ranks #13 in PFF's Grade for Pass Routes.

Marshall's receiver corps is led by receivers Corey Gammage and Willie Johnson as well as tight end Xavier Gaines. Gammage leads with 62 receptions, 784 yards, 12.6 yards per reception, 71.3 yards per game, and 2 touchdowns. Johnson has 32 receptions for 625 yards, 19.5 yards per reception, 62.5 yards per game, and 3 touchdowns. Gaines is responsible for 38 receptions, 447 yards, 11.8 yards per reception, 40.6 yards per game, and 3 touchdowns. Ali is also used in the passing game. He ties with Gaines for the second-most receptions on the team and adds 320 yards, 8.4 yards per reception, 29.1 yards per reception, and 1 touchdown. The entire group averages 12.5 yards per reception, 8 receivers have at least 1 touchdown, and the group ranks #54 in PFF's Grade for Pass Routes.

So long as Zappe & Co. have the stage, they continue to overwhelm and burn defenses.

Advantage: WKU

Running Backs

The Tops' ground attack is led by Noah Whittington and Adam Cofield. Whittington accounts for 76 carries, 383 yards, 5.0 yards per reception, 42.56 yards per game, and 1 touchdown. Cofield is not far behind with 75 carries, 347 yards, 4.6 yards per carry, 31.55 yards per carry, and 4 touchdowns. Cofield is a good downhill runner while Whittington can show bursts and has ability to make positive gains in space. Freshman Kye Robichaux adds 47 carries for 214 yards, 4.6 yards per carry, 21.4 yards per game, and 1 touchdown. But he has also proven to be a utility player with 5 receptions for 71 yards, 14.2 yards per reception, and 1 touchdown.

WKU leans on the Air Raid while the ground game accounts for 33.3% of all plays. Nonetheless, the Tops are still effective on the ground with a high success rate of 50.2%, 271 carries for 1,071 yards, 4.0 yards per carry, 97.4 yards per game, and 10 touchdowns. They add a PPA of 0.08, EPA/Rush of -0.122, and explosiveness of 0.66.

The Herd have a pretty balanced offense and run at a 47.1% rate. Rasheen Ali carries the ground attack with 206 attempts for 1,142 yards, 5.5 yards per carry, 103.8 yards per game, and 20 touchdowns. Last week, during Marshall's win at Charlotte, Ali had 23 carries for a massive 203 yards, 8.8 yards per carry, and 3 touchdowns. Sheldon Evans has 63 carries for 279 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, 27.9 yards per game, and 5 touchdowns. The unit has 379 carries for 1,796 yards, 4.7 yards per carry, 163.3 yards per game, and 34 touchdowns. On the season, the Herd have a league-best success rate of 51.9%, PPA of 0.24, EPA/Rush of 0.122, explosiveness of 1.0, and five players with at least 1 rushing touchdown.

Advantage: Marshall

Offensive Line

For five consecutive weeks, WKU remains #1 in PFF's Grade for Pass Blocking with a grade of 93.2. They also rank #47 in PFF's Grade for Run Blocking with a 71.5. WKU's o-line has allowed 11 sacks as well as a stuff rate of 13.0%.

Marshall's pass blocking ranks #21 with a PFF Grade of 74.8 while run blocking ranks #34 with a grade of 75.2. The Herd's o-line has allowed 12 sacks as well as a stuff rate of 13.5%.

Both o-lines have excelled at protecting their offensive strengths, and both will be facing two of the league's best defenses in terms of pass rush and pressure.

Advantage: Even

Secondary

WKU's secondary has allowed 249-of-415 pass attempts (60.0%) for 2,944 yards (267.64 yards per game), 7.0 yards per pass attempt, and 15 passing touchdowns (1.4 passing touchdowns per game). Last week, the secondary held FAU to 25-of-43 pass attempts (58.1.%) for 276 yards, 6.4 yards per pass attempt, and 1 touchdown. After a combined 10 interceptions in two games, the Tops added 3 more, last week. Defensive backs Omari Alexander and Beanie Bishop were responsible for 2 of the 3.

Antwon Kincade, A.J. Brathwaite Jr., Kahlef Hailassie, Miguel Edwards, Kaleb Oliver, Beanie Bishop, and Omari Alexander combine for 271 total tackles, 11.0 tackles for loss, 1.0 sack, 11-of-18 interceptions, 19 pass breakups, 1 quarterback hurry, 2 fumble recoveries, and 2 forced fumbles. WKU ranks #19 in coverage with a PFF Grade of 84.5. They allow a passing success rate of 44.0%, PPA of 0.19, EPA/Pass of -0.022, and explosiveness of 1.5. WKU's defense leads the league and is #2 nationally with 18 interceptions on the season.

Marshall has allowed 184-of-339 pass attempts (54.3%) for 2,063 yards (187.5 yards per game), 6.09 yards per pass attempt, and 13 touchdowns as well as total 10 interceptions. They also allow a 41.9% success rate, PPA of 0.12, EPA/Pass of -0.051, and explosiveness of 1.5.

Cory McCoy, E.J. Jackson, Nazeeh Johnson, Brandon Drayton, Steven Gilmore, and Micah Abraham combine for 276 total tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, 8-of-10 interceptions, 21 pass breakups, 5 quarterback hurries, 2 fumble recoveries, and 1 forced fumble. Safety Cory McCoy leads the secondary with 60.0 total tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 1.0 sack, 2 interceptions, 2 pass breakups, 3 quarterback hurries, 2 fumble recoveries, and 1 forced fumble. Marshall ranks #52 in coverage with a PFF Grade of 74.5.

Although the Herd are statistically the best passing defense in the league, through their eleven games, opponents have averaged 30.8 pass attempts. Against WKU, they'll face a 60.1% increase in pass attempts from an efficient aerial assault. Meanwhile, Grant Wells will be the best quarterback WKU has faced since UTSA's Frank Harris. Neither team can afford to get beat over top.

Advantage: Even

Linebackers

The Hilltoppers' linebacker corps is led by Will Ignont and Demetrius Cain. The two combine for 88.0 total tackles, 7.0 tackles for loss, 5.0 sacks, 3 interceptions, 6 pass breakups, 3 quarterback hurries, and 1 fumble recovery. An even offensive game plan will force an even defensive game plan. In past performances, the defense could focus on one strength and force the offense in uncomfortable situations, but this week will prove to be a more difficult task.

Marshall linebackers Eli Neal, Abraham Beauplan, and Charlie Gray combine for 208 total tackles, 22.5 tackles for loss, 10.0 sacks, 1 interception, 1 pass breakup, 16 quarterback hurries, 3 fumble recoveries, and 4 forced fumbles. Neal leads the entire defense with 83.0 total tackles, 7.0 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, 1 interception, 1 pass breakup, 7 quarterback hurries, 2 fumble recoveries, and 1 forced fumble.

Marshall's linebackers (and defensive line) will face the task of getting past WKU's stout pass blocking and to the efficient, explosive Zappe.

Advantage: Marshall

Defensive Line

WKU's rushing defense has allowed 427 carries for 1,667 yards, 151.5 yards per game, 3.9 yards per carry, and 21 touchdowns. Last week, they held FAU to 26 carries for 25 yards, 0.96 yards per carry, and 0 touchdowns. 35 carries for 124 yards, 3.5 yards per carry, and 2 touchdowns from Rice's ground game. They've brought the pressure especially in conference play and accounted for 3-of-3 sacks 3-of-6 tackles for loss, and 3-of-3 quarterback hurries against Rice.

On the season, the d-line has totaled 325 tackles, 38.0 tackles for loss, 20.0 sacks, 1 interception, 15 pass breakups, 21 quarterback hurries, 4 fumble recoveries, and 9 forced fumbles. The Hilltoppers' rushing defense ranks #86 with a PFF Grade of 63.6 and the pass rush ranks #77 with a PFF Grade of 73.8. They allow a rushing success rate of 47.1%, PPA of 0.18, EPA/Rush of 0.061, and explosiveness of 0.88. Defensive end DeAngelo Malone leads the line with 72.0 total tackles, 12.0 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, 3 pass breakups, 6 quarterback hurries, and 3 forced fumbles.

Marshall's rushing defense has allowed 500 for 2,111 yards, 191.9 yards per game, 4.2 yards per carry, and 15 touchdowns. Their rushing defense ranks #66 with a PFF Grade of 72.5. To this point, they've allowed a rushing success rate of 45.2%, PPA of 0.17, EPA/Rush of 0.079, and explosiveness of 1.0. The d-line totals 299 total tackles, 35.5 tackles for loss, 20.0 sacks, 3 pass breakups, 65 quarterback hurries, 3 fumble recoveries, and 3 forced fumbles. Owen Porter and Koby Cumberlander lead with 67.0 total tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, 7.0 sacks, and 15 quarterback hurries. The pass rush ranks #8 with a PFF Grade of 90.0.

While both lines have struggled against the run at times, both can dial up the pressure. Statistically, Marshall edges out WKU.

Advantage: Marshall

Special Teams

Punter John Haggerty has punted 26 times for 1,296 yards, 49.85 yards per punt, and has 9 punts land inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Brayden Narveson is 16-of-18 on field goals and 56-of-56 on extra point kicks. Jerreth Sterns and DeAngelo Wilson combine for 23 punt returns, 198 return yards, and 8.61 yards per return. Beanie Bishop, Joey Beljan, Jakairi Moses, and JaQues Evans total 27 kickoff returns for 606 yards and 22.44 yards per return. Kickoff specialist Cory Munson has 82 kickoffs for 4,846 yards, 59.1 yards per kickoff, 48 touchbacks, 5.0 tackles, and 1 successful onside kick.

Marshall's Robert LeFevre has punted 43 times for 1,684 yards, 39.16 yards per punt, and has 16 punts inside of the 20-yard line. Kickers Andrew Sanders and Shane Ciucci combine for 8-of-13 on field goals and 51-of-51 on extra point kicks. Willie Johnson, Talik Keaton, and Naquan Renalds combine for 17 punt returns for 119 yards, and 7.0 yards per return. Six players - led by Jayden Harrison and Sheldon Evans - combine for 27 kickoff returns for 626 yards, and 23.19 yards per return. Harrison and Ali each have a kickoff return touchdown.

Advantage: WKU

As fate would have it, the two rival schools will meet and play for the East Division crown. Winner takes on the [currently] undefeated UTSA Roadrunners. WKU is riding a wave of momentum. The Tops have won six-straight, have continued to flex their offensive prowess, and the defense has allowed an average 18.5 points during the last six games while forcing 15 turnovers in the last three games. During the past six games, WKU has won by a margin of 25.5 points per game. Marshall has a well-balanced offense with the defensive line to challenge one of the nation's best pass blocking units. The Thundering Herd have won five of their last six games. During their last five wins, Marshall has won by a margin of 21.8 points per game.

Both teams have a high Eckel Rate, so I'd anticipate this game to boil down to the trenches as well as whoever wins the turnover battle...no matter how numerous or infrequent those turnovers may be.

WKU - 36

Marshall - 34

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