12/21/2022 football Edit

Analyzing the Enemy: R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl (12/21/22)

Hannah Page • InsideHilltopperSports

Editor

@hanalei91

Day: Wednesday, December 21, 2022

Time: 8:00PM CST

Location: Caesars Superdome

Network: ESPN

Betting line: South Alabama -4.0 | O/U: 57.0

History: This will be the second meeting between WKU and South Alabama. The two last met in 2013 with the Jaguars defeating the Hilltoppers 31-24.

Quarterbacks

WKU's Austin Reed is 353-of-547 (64.5%) for 4,247 yards (326.7 YPG), 7.8 yards per pass attempt, has 36 touchdowns (2.8 per game), 10 interceptions, and a QBR of 66.5. Aggressive through the air and even on the ground, Reed is Mr. Reliable on QB sneaks for downs (or scores): accounting for 87 carries, 199 yards, and 8 rushing touchdowns. In the Tops' last outing, Reed went 28-of-52 (53.8%) for 410 yards, 7.8 yards per pass attempt, threw for 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, and had a 1-yard rushing touchdown in OT. The Division II to FBS QB1 ranks No. 2 nationally in total yards and passing touchdowns.

Carter Bradley leads the Jaguars having gone 240-of-373 (64.3%) for 2,975 yards (247.9 YPG), 8.0 yards per pass attempt, has thrown 25 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, adds 2 rushing touchdowns, and maintains a 61.6 QBR. The Toledo transfer made an immediate impact this season: breaking the program's single-season passing yards record as well as single-game passing yards record (420 yards vs. ULM). He's a quarterback who is better than his stat sheet. He may have a 64.3% completion percentage, but his adjusted completion percentage is 75.7% and indicates that he throws on target, but receiver drops have affected that number. Look for Bradley to attack the middle of the field, primarily behind the line of scrimmage as well as short center; those two zones, combined, account for 170 pass attempts, 1,426 yards, and 10 touchdowns.

Advantage: WKU

Running Backs

WKU has 388 carries (29.8 per game) for 1,876 net yards (144.3 YPG), 4.8 yards per carry, and 15 rushing touchdowns. Despite an injury sustained in Game 7, Kye Robichaux leads the group with 73 attempts, 496 net yards, 6.8 yards per carry, and 3 touchdowns. Although a healthy Robichaux is ideal, Davion Ervin-Poindexter, L.T. Sanders, and Markese Stepp were able to take care of business. Most recently, Ervin-Poindexter had 17 carries for 108 yards (6.4 yards per carry) and 1 reception for 29 yards against FAU. Against UAB, Sanders had 16 carries and went off for 120 yards. Considering the pass heavy offense, this remains an efficient group that does what it must (and usually more) with a success rate of 44.1% and rush PPA of 0.186.

South Alabama has 479 carries (39.9 per game) for 1,975 yards (164.6 YPG), 4.1 yards per carry, and 19 rushing touchdowns. The Jaguars are led by millennium rusher La'Damian Webb. Also a transfer (Florida State and Jones College), Webb has certainly made a splash with 197 carries, 1,014 rushing yards, 5.1 yards per carry, and 13 touchdowns. The versatile back also has 17 receptions for 184 and 1 touchdown. Within the Sun Belt, he ranks No. 4 in total rushing yards, No. 2 in rushing touchdowns, and No. 2 in yards per game. He's had three 100+ yard games: 124 yards vs. UCLA, 162 yards vs. Arkansas State, and 247 yards vs. Georgia Southern. Behind Webb is freshman Braylon McReynolds with 55 carries for 311 yards and 5.7 yards per carry. Despite Webb's heroics, the ground attack has a 39.7% success rate and PPA of 0.154. However, during the last two games of the regular season, WKU's rushing defense allowed 79 carries for 430 yards (215.0 per game) and 5 touchdowns.

Advantage: South Alabama

Receivers

Given such a high octane offense, it goes without saying that the Tops have a deep receiving room. Malachi Corley leads with 90 receptions for 1,179 yards (90.69 YPG), 13.1 yards per catch, and 9 touchdowns. He's made a name for himself as the team and nation's YAC leader with 909 yards and 10.1 yards after catch per reception. Behind Corley was the speedy Daewood Davis, but he will not be playing (injury, NFL Draft). No matter, WKU can still lean on receivers Jaylen Hall, Michael Mathison, and Dalvin Smith as well as tight ends Joshua Simon and Joey Beljan. In WKU's OT win over FAU, it was Simon's two-point conversion that sealed the deal.

Likewise, South Alabama has a deep set of receivers, three of which with at least 700 yards. Jalen Wayne leads with 56 receptions for 795 yards, 14.2 yards per catch, and 9 touchdowns. Next is Caullin Lacy with 58 receptions for 756 yards, 13.0 yards per catch, and 6 touchdowns. Devin Voisin rounds out the trio with 53 receptions for 714 yards, 13.5 yards per catch, and 4 touchdowns. Lacy tends to be targeted at shorter distances (7.8 ADOT) while Voisin and Wayne are a bit deeper (11.3 and 14.1, respectively). Voisin is listed as questionable with an arm injury sustained during the Jags' regular season finale.

Advantage: WKU

Offensive Line

WKU's offensive line ranks #4 nationally in pass blocking with a PFF grade of 84.8 and ranks #83 in run blocking with a 56.8. The o-line has allowed 48.0 tackles for loss, 14.0 sacks, and 22 quarterback hurries. In terms of advanced metrics, WKU's front contributes an average 3.2 line yards and allows a 13.8% stuff rate.

South Alabama's o-line has allowed 55.0 tackles for loss, 22.0 sacks, and 29 quarterback hurries. They rank #83 in pass blocking with a PFF grade of 60.1 and #98 in run blocking with a 52.8. Aside from poor pass protection, the o-line contributes 3.1 line yards and allows a 13.5% stuff rate.

Advantage: WKU

Secondary

WKU's secondary has allowed 273-of-443 pass attempts (61.6%) for 2,927 yards, (225.15 per game), 6.61 yards per pass attempt, 18 touchdowns, and account for 15-of-17 interceptions as well as 31-of-42 pass breakups. Kahlef Hailassie leads the DBs, but has opted out of the bowl game in preparation for the NFL Draft. Kaleb Oliver has 62.0 total tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, 3 interceptions, 1 pass breakup, 2 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery and 1 forced fumble. Talique Allen, Kendrick Simpkins, and Upton Stout combine for 118 total tackles, 3.0 tackles for loss, 4 interceptions, 7 pass breakups, 1 quarterback hurry, 1 fumble recovery, and 3 forced fumbles. WKU ranks #58 in PFF's grade for coverage with a 77.3. Individually, each DB has made a big play or forced a big stop at a clutch moment. But, as a group, they've also let a lot get by them. The Jaguars may run the ball more, but the passing game is extremely balanced between Wayne, Lacy, and Voisin and efficient with a success rate of 46.4% and PPA of 0.383.

South Alabama's secondary has allowed 245-of-417 pass attempts (58.8%) for 2,580 yards (215.0 per game), 6.2 yards per pass attempt, and 17 touchdowns as well as forced 9-of-12 interceptions. Jaden Voisin and Yam Banks are the leaders with a combined 121 total tackles, 12.0 tackles for loss, 1.0 sack, 7 interceptions, 15 pass breakups, 8 quarterback hurries, 2 fumble recoveries, and 1 forced fumble. Taking a look at the Jags' matchup against Georgia Southern can give us a better idea of what to expect given Georgia Southern's similarities to WKU. The Eagles are, also, a potent, pass-heavy offense led by Tyson Helton's brother, Clay, and offensive coordinator Bryan Ellis served as WKU's OC from 2019-21. Against Georgia Southern, the Jags allowed 26-of-45 pass attempts (57.7%) for 278 yards, 6.2 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception.

Advantage: South Alabama

Linebackers

JaQues Evans, Derrick Smith, Will Ignont, and Jaden Hunter have a combined 282 total tackles, 22.0 tackles for loss, 12.5 sacks, 1 interception, 9 pass breakups, 8 quarterback hurries, 3 fumble recoveries, and 1 forced fumble. If South Alabama's offensive line remains inconsistent at best, the Hilltoppers' pass rush will need to seize every opportunity and throw Bradley off early. But with a pretty sound passing attack and ground game, the Tops can't afford any lackadaisical efforts; don't let Webb get to the second level and be able to quickly react in passing situations. WKU ranks #78 in PFF's grade for pass rush with a 72.2.

Trey Kiser, James Miller, and Ke'Shun Brown lead the Jaguar linebackers with a combined 171 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 2 interceptions, 4 pass breakups, 5 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 2 forced fumbles. CJ Rias adds 33 total tackles, a whopping 10.0 tackles for loss, 4.0 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 3 quarterback hurries, and 1 forced fumble. South Alabama ranks #28 in PFF's grade for pass rush with a 82.9. Only time will tell if that grade stands the test of time against WKU's blocking.

Advantage: South Alabama

Defensive Line

The Hilltoppers have allowed 503 carries for 2,026 yards, 155.8 yards per game, 4.0 yards per carry, and 17 rushing touchdowns. Juwuan Jones leads the group with 39 total tackles, 3.0 tackle for loss, 1.5 sacks, 1 pick six, 2 quarterback hurries, and 1 fumble recovery. Lorenzo Hernandez, Brodric Martin, and Terrion Thompson combine for 82 tackles, 9.0 tackles for loss, 5.0 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 14 quarterback hurries, and 1 forced fumble. WKU's run defense ranks #89 with a PFF of 70.2 and have allowed a rush success rate of 42.8% and PPA/rush of 0.113.

South Alabama has allowed 342 carries for 1,051 yards, 87.6 yards per game, 3.1 yards per carry, and 8 rushing touchdowns. Jamie Sheriff leads with 39.0 total tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, 6.0 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 2 pass breakups, 4 quarterback hurries, and 1 forced fumble. Wy'Kevious Thomas, Brock Higdon, and Charles Coleman III combine for 70 total tackles, 18.5 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks, 5 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 forced fumble. Of course, those numbers only legitimize that PFF pass rush grade. The Jaguars' run defense ranks #43 with a PFF grade of 80.5 and have allowed a rush success rate of 39.4% and PPA/rush of 0.064.

Advantage: South Alabama

Special Teams

Punter Tom Ellard has punted 41 times for 1,747 yards, 42.61 yards per punt, with 17 landing inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Brayden Narveson is 15-of-21 on field goal attempts and 59-of-59 on extra point kicks. Upton Stout and Jaylen Hall combine for 14 punt returns for 135 yards (9.6 yards per return). Hall adds a punt return touchdown, as well. Michael Mathison has 19 kick returns for 420 yards and 22.11 yards per return.

South Alabama punter Jack Brooks has punted 53 times for 2,268 yards, 42.79 yards per punt, and has 16 punts land inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Diego Guajardo is 17-of-18 on field goal attempts and 44-of-45 on extra points. Caullin Lacy has 21 punt returns for 189 yards, 9.0 yards per return, and 1 return touchdown. Braylon McReynolds has 13 kick returns for 277 yards and 21.31 yards per return.

Advantage: Even

What to expect

The New Orleans bowl is shaping up to be WKU's offense vs. South Alabama's defense. South Alabama is the favorite and for good reason. The offense doesn't have to be flashy, just efficient. The defense has limited opponents to 19.4 points per game, they don't give up big plays, and they are able to get off of the field whether it be red zone stops or forcing three-and-outs. But, aside from Nicholls, Arkansas State, and Louisiana Tech, South Alabama is winning games only by an average 6.8 points.

Several national sites have been misinformed or assumed a [WKU] player in the transfer portal means they are not playing. It is to my understanding that most of them are playing. WKU with their offensive weapons will make for a solid matchup. South Alabama is not an explosive offense, and if the Tops defense can throw Bradley, Webb, or both off kilter, then this could easily favor WKU.

****

Talk about it on RED TOWEL TALK.

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL.

Like us on FACEBOOK.