Analyzing the Enemy: Rice Owls (11/12/22)

Day: Saturday, November 12

Time: 1:00AM CST

Location: Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

Network: ESPN+

Betting line: WKU -13 | O/U: 60.5

History: WKU leads the series 3-0.

Quarterbacks

WKU's Austin Reed is 276-of-406 (68.0%) for 3,171 yards (317.1 YPG), 7.8 yards per pass attempt, has 28 touchdowns (2.8 per game), 6 interceptions, and a QBR of 65.0. When needed, he can use his feet to pick up the first down or score. He adds 70 carries for 160 yards and 6 touchdowns. In last week's dominating win - one that had resemblance to the 73-0 FIU game - Reed went 23-of-38 (60.5%) for 409 yards, 10.8 yards per pass attempt, had 6 passing touchdowns, and a QBR of 76.9. His season passing yardage and touchdowns are both good for #3 in the nation.

Rice's TJ McMahon is 152-of-255 (59.6%) for 2,037 (226.3 YPG), 8.0 yards per pass attempt, and has 18 touchdowns (2.0 per game), 12 interceptions, and a QBR of 47.7. On the ground, he has 61 carries for 169 yards and 3 touchdowns. In Rice's 37-30 win over UTEP, McMahon went 21-of-31 (67.7%) for 334 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, and had 1 rushing touchdown. As of late, Rice has called more designed runs for McMahon: 135 of his 169 yards and 2 of 3 touchdowns coming from the Louisiana Tech, Charlotte, and UTEP games. Although he's one of Rice's most explosive quarterbacks in recent memory, he's risk-taking and prone to mistakes. Under pressure, he's thrown 7 of his 12 interceptions.

Advantage: WKU

Running Backs

WKU has 304 carries (30.4 per game) for 1,512 net yards (151.2 YPG), 5.0 yards per carry, and 13 rushing touchdowns. Against Charlotte, season leader Kye Robichaux did not see action due to an injury sustained during the MTSU game; however, Davion Ervin-Poindexter, Jaikari Moses, and Malachi Corley put together a 13 attempts, 136 yards, and 10.5 yards per carry performance. Obviously, having Robichaux back would make this group even more dangerous, but between Ervin-Poindexter, Moses, and L.T. Sanders, this is a capable, efficient group.

The Owls have totaled 312 carries (34.6 per game) for 1,359 net yards (151.0 YPG), 4.4 yards per carry, and 15 rushing touchdowns. Cameron Montgomery leads the group with 59 carries for 391 yards, and 6.6 yards per carry while Ari Broussard adds 91 carries for 251 yards, 2.8 yards per carry, and 9 touchdowns. But, Broussard hasn't seen action since the Louisiana Tech game and doesn't appear to be on Saturday's depth chart. Meanwhile, Juma Otoviano has seen an increased role. On the year, Otoviano has 28 carries for 177 yards, 6.3 yards per carry, and 1 touchdown.

Advantage: Even

Receivers

Malachi Corley leads the Tops' receiver room with 64 receptions for 863 yards, 13.48 yards per catch and 7 touchdowns. Behind Corley is is Daewood Davis with 56 receptions for 755 yards, 13.48 yards per catch, and 6 touchdowns. Last week, everyone got a piece of the pie as seven different receivers found the end zone: Corley, Davis, Dalvin Smith, Jaylen Hall, Michael Mathison, and tight ends Joshua Simon and Joey Beljan. Tight ends took on a bigger role than just blocking and accounted for 5 receptions for 77 yards, 15.4 yards per catch, and 2 touchdowns. Of receivers with at least 35 receptions, Davis, Corley, and Mathison rank among the conference's best in terms of total EPA.

Leading Rice's receivers is Bradley Rozner with 33 receptions for 721 yards, 21.85 yards per reception and team-most 8 touchdowns. He has had five games of 100+ yards and, last week, had 6 receptions for 142 yards, 23.6 yards per catch, and 1 game winning touchdown. Luke McCaffrey has 51 receptions, 656 yards, 12.86 yards per catch, and 6 touchdowns. The versatile McCaffrey also adds 11 carries for 137 yards and 1 rushing touchdown. Against Louisiana Tech, McCaffrey accounted for 10 receptions for 171 yards and 2 touchdowns (as well as 31 rushing yards and 1 rushing touchdown).

When WKU's tight ends are involved...

Advantage: WKU

Offensive Line

Heading into Week 11, WKU's offensive line ranks #5 nationally in pass blocking with a PFF grade of 84.8 and ranks #68 in run blocking with a 60.1. The o-line has allowed 38.0 tackles for loss, 12.0 sacks, and 18 quarterback hurries.

Rice's o-line has allowed 47.0 tackles for loss, 23.0 sacks, and 20 quarterback hurries. They rank #117 in pass blocking with a PFF grade of 45.1 and #125 in run blocking with a 44.9.

Advantage: WKU

Secondary

WKU's secondary has allowed 218-of-354 pass attempts (61.6%) for 2,361 yards, (236.1 per game), 6.67 yards per pass attempt, 15 touchdowns, and account for 11-of-13 interceptions as well as 26-of-33 pass breakups. Kahlef Hailassie leads the DBs with 58 total tackles, 8.0 tackles for loss, 3.0 sacks, 2 interceptions, 8 pass breakups, 1 quarterback hurry, 1 fumble recovery, and 2 forced fumbles. Kaleb Oliver adds 45 total tackles, 1.0 tackle for loss, 2 interceptions, 1 pass breakup, 2 quarterback hurries, and 1 fumble recovery. After allowing North Texas to do quite a bit of damage through the air and downfield, the Tops bounced back in a big way against Charlotte: allowing 19-of-34 pass attempts (55.9%) for 223 yards, 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Still, the Tops have to watch out for big plays after allowing passes of more than 15 yards six times during, both, the Charlotte and North Texas games.

Rice's secondary has allowed 147-of-240 pass attempts (61.3%) for 1,811 yards (201.22 per game), 7.55 yards per pass attempt, and 19 touchdowns as well as forced 4-of-6 interceptions. Gabriel Taylor, Kirk Lockhart, and George Nyakwol combine for 96.0 total tackles, 3.0 tackles for loss, 1.0 sack, 3 interceptions, 6 pass breakups, 1 quarterback hurry, and 2 forced fumbles. Aside from the Charlotte game, this has been a pretty consistent group. However, they've yet to face an aerial attack like WKU. Prior to the matchup, the Owls have faced opponents who average 26 pass attempts per game; WKU averages 42. The uptick in pass attempts coupled with talented, explosive Hilltopper receivers may prove to be overwhelming.

Advantage: WKU

Linebackers

JaQues Evans, Derrick Smith, Will Ignont, and Jaden Hunter have a combined 222 total tackles, 19.0 tackles for loss, 11 sacks, 1 interception, 6 pass breakups, 6 quarterback hurries, 2 fumble recoveries, and 2 forced fumbles. Last week, Evans had 7 total tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 1.0 sack, and 3 quarterback hurries. Rice will bring a lot of different looks, and the Tops will need to be on their toes, playing fluid, and adapting as the game progresses.

For the Owls, Chris Conti, Myron Morrison, Treshawn Chamberlain, and Josh Pearcy combine for 173 total tackles, 18.0 tackles for loss, 8.0 sacks, 2 interceptions, 7 quarterback hurries, 2 fumble recoveries, and 1 forced fumble. Pearcy accounts for 7.5 of the tackles for loss and 5.5 of the sacks.

Advantage: Even

Defensive Line

The Hilltoppers have allowed 384 carries for 1,428 yards, 142.8 yards per game, 3.7 yards per carry, and 11 rushing touchdowns. Juwuan Jones leads the group with 34 total tackles, 3.0 tackle for loss, 1.5 sacks, 1 pick six, 2 quarterback hurries, and 1 fumble recovery. Against Charlotte, Lorenzo Hernandez, Terrion Thompson, and Mike Allen combined for 6 total tackles, 2.0 tackles for loss, and 2.0 sacks. McMahon and his receivers are talented, but he's also vulnerable and fallible under pressure. The Tops will need to generate a consistent pass rush to force early, costly mistakes.

Rice has allowed 317 carries for 1,463 yards, 162.6 yards per game, 4.6 yards per carry, and 14 rushing touchdowns. Defensive end Ikenna Enechukwu leads with 32 total tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, and 5 quarterback hurries. His counterpart, Trey Schuman, has 16.0 total tackles, 5.0 tackles for loss, 4.0 sacks, 1 pass breakup, and 3 quarterback hurries.

Advantage: WKU

Special Teams

Punter Tom Ellard has punted 34 times for 1,478 yards, 43.47 yards per punt, with 14 landing inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Brayden Narveson is 12-of-17 on field goal attempts and 48-of-48 on extra point kicks. Upton Stout and Jaylen Hall combine for 10 punt returns for 80 yards (8.0 yards per return) and Michael Mathison has 10 kick returns for 215 yards and 21.5 yards per return.

Rice punter Conor Hunt has punted 31 times for 1,286 yards, 41.48 yards per punt, and has 4 punts land inside of the 20-yard line. Hunt's average yards per punt and punts inside of the 20-yard line is below WKU's opponent average. To this point, opponents flipping the field has forced WKU into many three-and-outs and uncomfortable situations. Give the Hilltopper offense an inch though, and they'll score. Kicker Christian VanSickle is 9-of-9 on field goal attempts and 31-of-31 on extra point kicks. Sean Fresch, McCaffrey, and Tyson Thompson combine for 11 punt returns for 143 yards (11.92 yards per return). Otoviano and Dean Connors combine for 15 kick returns for 280 yards (18.67 yards per return).

Advantage: WKU

Rice can score and they can hang with teams, as evident by their 30.0 points per game, wins over UAB, UTEP, Louisiana Tech, and Louisiana, and close losses to Houston and FAU. But during their last three outings, the Owls have allowed 42.3 points per game. No matter, this Rice team is neither FIU nor Charlotte...they are better and more consistent.

There's still a lot at stake in this game. Rice is seeking bowl eligibility, but this is also a must-win for both in terms of CUSA Championship standings. The odds are in favor for a UTSA-North Texas rematch, but with more games to be played, the victor of this game has a positive outlook should UTSA or North Texas falter the remainder of their respective schedules.

Limiting turnovers and mistakes will be key. The Owls have 19 turnovers (2.1 per game) while the Tops' defense is tied at No. 1 in the nation in forced turnovers with 24 (13 interceptions and 11 fumble recoveries).

WKU - 38

Rice - 23

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