Analyzing the Enemy: UTSA Roadrunners (10/8/22)

Day: Saturday, October 8

Time: 5:00PM CST

Location: Alamodome

Network: ESPN+

Betting line: UTSA -6.5 | O/U: 73.0

History: UTSA leads the matchup series 2-1. The Hilltoppers and Roadrunners faced each other twice in 2021: once in the regular season and once in the CUSA Championship Game. UTSA won both and outscored WKU 101-87.

Quarterbacks

This game will feature two of CUSA's best quarterbacks: UTSA's Frank Harris and WKU's Austin Reed.

Through five games, Reed is 144-of-199 (72.4%) for 1,667 yards (333.4 YPG), 8.4 yards per pass attempt, has 16 touchdowns (3.2 per game), 4 interceptions, and a QBR of 70.4. Although he's not asked to use his legs a whole lot, Reed adds 2 rushing touchdowns. Prior to the Troy game, the passing game was averaging 35.75 pass attempts per game. The 56 pass attempts against Troy was 56.6% increase from the average. During the Troy game, Reed went 39-of-56 (69.6%) for 406 yards, 7.3 yards per pass attempt, and threw for 3 touchdowns and 1 interception.

Harris is 131-of-190 (68.9%) for 1,724 yards (344.8 YPG), 9.1 yards per pass attempt, and has 12 touchdowns (2.4 per game), 5 interceptions, and a QBR of 80.2. The mobile QB also adds 42 carries for 193 yards, 4.6 yards per carry, and 4 rushing touchdowns. Against MTSU, Harris went 27-of-36 (75.0%) for 414 yards, 11.5 yards per pass attempt, and had 2 touchdowns as well as 3 interceptions; he had 2 rushing touchdowns, as well.

In terms of leaderboard, it is almost split down the middle. Harris leads the league in passing yards and passing yards per game; Reed ranks #2 in both. Meanwhile, Reed leads the league in completion percentage, touchdowns, and efficiency; Harris ranks #2 in completion percentage and #3 in efficiency.

There's no denying the talent and impact of both gunslingers. The two are neck and neck. Whoever can handle defensive pressure, and whoever's respective secondary can bend and not break, will come out on top.

Advantage: Even

Running Backs

After two consecutive 200+ yard games, the Tops posted 29 carries for 64 yards, 2.2 yards per carry, and 0 touchdowns against Troy. It did not help matters that run blocking was allowing a stuff rate of 20.8%. But last Saturday's performance was not par for the course. Otherwise, WKU has 153 carries (30.6 per game) for 738 total yards (147.6 YPG), 4.8 yards per carry, and 7 rushing touchdowns. Kye Robichaux spearheads the ground attack with 47 carries, 315 net yards, 6.7 yards per carry, and 1 touchdown. Davion Ervin-Poindexter has 40 carries, 139 net yards, 3.5 yards per carry, and 3 touchdowns.

The Roadrunners are at 180 carries (36.0 per game), for 675 total yards (135.0 YPG), 3.8 yards per carry, and 10 rushing touchdowns. Brenden Brady leads the run game with 79 carries, for 304 net yards, 3.8 yards per carry, and 4 touchdowns. Behind Brady is Harris. Trelon Smith has seen action in three games and has accumulated 33 carries for 113 net yards, 3.4 yards per carry, and 2 touchdowns.

Keeping the opposing productive and explosive passing offense off the field will be each teams' MO. For that, you'll need a reliable ground game to sustain the drive and, eventually, run the clock. Both are capable, but WKU seems to have a slight advantage considering player personnel as well as what each rushing defense allows. However, efficient and effective quarterback mobility is something WKU has yet to face this season.

Advantage: Even

Receivers

Like the quarterbacks, we're looking at two of the best receiving rooms in the league. A key difference, here, is where WKU likes to spread the wealth, UTSA's production is very concentrated amongst a lethal, three-headed monster.

WKU's Daewood Davis is the go-to threat with 34 receptions, 476 yards, 14.0 yards per catch, and 4 touchdowns. Malachi Corley - although quiet against Troy - has 24 receptions for 296 yards, 12.3 yards per reception, and 5 touchdowns. It seems like the Tops are always in a better, more favorable position when Corley (and tight end play) is a factor. The welcomed surprise is Michael Mathison's emergence. Prior to Troy, Mathison had 19 receptions, 116 yards, and 6.1 yards per catch; in last week's matchup, alone, Mathison had 9 receptions for 160 yards, 17.8 yards per catch, and 1 touchdown. Davis had 12 receptions for 122 yards (10.2 yards per reception), and 1 touchdown.

UTSA's De'Corian Clark, Joshua Cephus, and Zakhari Franklin each have over 490 yards, account for 78.8% of receptions as well as 85.0% of yards, and at least 2 touchdowns. Against MTSU, Clark had 8 receptions for 139 yards (17.4 yards per reception), Franklin had 5 receptions for 98 yards (19.6 YPR) and 2 touchdowns, and Cephus had 7 receptions for 91 yards (13.0 YPR).

While both are extremely talented groups, UTSA's elite receivers have been a bit more consistent game-to-game.

Advantage: UTSA

Offensive Line

Heading into Week 6, WKU's offensive line ranks #6 nationally in pass blocking with a PFF grade of 82.9 and ranks #70 in run blocking with a 61.3. The o-line has allowed 23.0 tackles for loss (9.0 vs. Troy) 14.0 tackles for loss, 8.0 sacks (5.0 vs. Troy), and 7 quarterback hurries (1 vs. Troy). Barring a repeat of the Troy game, WKU's o-line is steadfast and it isn't time to worry. Guard Quantavious Leslie ranks #12 nationally in pass blocking while tackle Gunner Britton ranks #53.

UTSA's o-line has allowed 25.0 tackles for loss, 11.0 sacks, and 13 quarterback hurries. They rank #112 in pass blocking with a PFF grade of 49.1 and #73 in run blocking with a 60.3. Right tackle Makai Hart could return this week, but that's not necessarily an immediate fix to the problem. WKU's pass rush is more than capable of exploiting such issues and forcing some costly mistakes.

Advantage: WKU

Secondary

On the season, WKU's secondary has allowed 116-of-192 pass attempts (60.4%) for 1,196 yards, (239.2 per game), 6.23 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdowns, and account for 7-of-9 interceptions as well as 13-of-16 pass breakups. The 9 picks are good for fourth-most in the country. Kahlef Hailassie leads the DBs with 31.0 total tackles, 5.0 tackles for loss, 3.0 sacks, 1 interception, 4 pass breakups, and 1 quarterback hurry. Kaleb Oliver adds 20 total tackles, 2 interceptions, and 1 pass breakup.

At the time, Troy was the best receiving unit WKU had faced. UTSA is a different story. Last week, WKU allowed 23-of-37 pass attempts (62.2%) for 280 yards, 7.6 yards per pass attempt (12.2 yards per reception), and 3 touchdowns. Linebacker Derrick Smith was able to come up with a pick in the second quarter. But with a group like UTSA, WKU will have to, once again, bring their A game. Harris and his receivers will inevitably hit a big play. Can WKU's secondary prove to be resilient and execute in the crunch time?

UTSA has allowed 102-of-162 pass attempts (63.0%) for 1,268 yards (253.6 per game), 7.83 yards per pass attempt, and 8 touchdowns as well as forced 2 interceptions. Clifford Chattman leads with 30.0 total tackles, 0.5 tackle for loss, and 4 pass breakups. Dywan Griffin is responsible for one of the two picks. Against MTSU, the Roadrunners allowed 35-of-57 pass attempts (61.4%) for 368 yards, 6.5 yards per pass attempt (10.5 yards per reception), and only 1 touchdown.

WKU's coverage ranks #47 with a PFF score of 78.9 and UTSA's ranks #100 with a score of 62.5. However, there's really no notable advantage. Both are facing explosive passing offenses and will be tested to a degree they've yet to experience.

Advantage: Even

Linebackers

JaQues Evans, Derrick Smith, and Will Ignont lead the linebacking corps and defense in terms of total tackles. The three combine for 88 total tackles, 8.0 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks, 1 interception, 3 pass breakups, and 2 quarterback hurries. Aaron Key has 2 fumble recoveries while Matthew Flint has 1. Niko Cooper has 1 forced fumble. The Tops will be busy: helping in the passing game but keeping an eye on Harris in scrambling situations.

The Roadrunners' defense is led by inside linebackers Jamal Ligon and Trevor Harmanson. Together, they account for 70 total tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 0.5 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 2 quarterback hurries, and 2 forced fumbles. Outside linebacker Trey Moore is also productive with 22 total tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, 1 pass breakup, and 1 quarterback hurry.

Advantage: Even

Defensive Line

Through five games, WKU's defensive line has totaled 70.0 total tackles, 9.0 tackles for loss, 4.0 sacks, 1 pick-six, and 15 quarterback hurries. Juwuan Jones leads the group with 21 total tackles, 2.5 tackle for loss, 1.5 sacks, 1 pick six, and 1 quarterback hurry. Terrion Thompson has 9.0 total tackles, 3.0 tackles for loss, 1.0 sack, and 2 quarterback hurries. The Tops' rushing defense has allowed 191 carries for 567 yards (113.4 per game), 3.0 yards per carry, and 5 touchdowns.

The Roadrunners have allowed 204 carries for 938 yards, 187.6 yards per game, 4.6 yards per carry, and 10 rushing touchdowns. They've totaled 85 total tackles, 13.0 tackles for loss, 4.0 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 11 quarterback hurries, and 1 fumble recovery. Asyrus Simon leads with 12.0 total tackles, 1.0 tackle for loss, 1 pass breakup, and 1.0 quarterback hurry.

Advantage: Even

Special Teams

Punter Tom Ellard punted 16 times for 703 yards, 43.94 yards per punt, with 6 landing inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Brayden Narveson is 7-of-10 on field goal attempts and 28-of-28 on extra point kicks. Upton Stout has returned 5 punts for 29 yards (5.8 yards per return) and Michael Mathison has 3 kick returns for 63 yards and 21.0 yards per return.

UTSA punter Lucas Dean has punted 15 times for 718 yards, 47.87 yards per punt, and has 5 punts land inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Jared Sackett is 6-of-8 on field goal attempts and 23-of-23 on extra point kicks. Cephus has 5 punt returns for 16 yards and 3.2 yards per return. Chris Carpenter leads the kickoff returns with 3 returns for 140 yards, 46.67 yards per return, and 1 return for a touchdown.

Advantage: UTSA

It should be another back n' forth game for the Hilltoppers. Neither team can afford a lackluster performance or one in which they lean into costly tendencies. Both have potent offenses and big time playmakers, but both have shown struggles (or, at least, room for growth) on both sides of the ball. They are so equal, I will forgo a score prediction and just opt for WKU +6.5 | Over 72.0.

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