Analyzing the Enemy: Vanderbilt Commodores (9/24/2016)
In this edition of “Analyzing the Enemy,” we take a look at our enemy from the south. Residing one hour away from Bowling Green and nestled in the heart of Nashville, TN, the Vanderbilt Commodores will be heading north and visiting Houchens-Smith Stadium this weekend.
Day: Saturday, September 24
Time: 3:30PM CST
Location: Houchens-Smith Stadium
Network: CBSSports Network
Series Record: Vandy leads 3-1. However, Vandy's 3 wins come pre-World War II. In the modern era, WKU leads 1-0.
Betting Line: WKU by 8 via ESPN.com
This Saturday will mark the first time an SEC team travels to the Houch and the first P5 school to visit since Indiana in 2010. There is no doubt that the game is generating a lot of hype as the game is anticipated to sell out; this would be the first sell out in four years. Say what you will about Vanderbilt – yes, their record has been terrible since the departure of head coach James Franklin – but the SEC is the SEC and defeating a P5 school always boosts confidence.
Do not peg this as an easy win quite yet. While I truly believe the Hilltoppers will have a strong performance and silence any doubt, there are some events that have not gone WKU’s way this season. Let’s recap a bit:
-WKU opens the season with a solid win over Rice (46-14); Mike White throws 25-31, 517 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Ferby injured.
-WKU plays Alabama. Bama wins 38-10. Defense and special teams stepped up big time. White goes to the locker room after a nasty hit/body slam.
-WKU plays Miami(OH). WKU wins 31-24. A strong game from Nicholas Norris, Taywan Taylor, Nacarius Fant, Kylen Towner, defense, and special teams. As a whole, offense execution was not the offense we have grown to know, love, and trust. Ace Wales and D’Andre Ferby stood on sideline (Wales had hamstring injury from Alabama game). Forrest Lamp and Taywan Taylor walk off of the field with injury. Only Taylor returns.
Last year, the Hilltoppers defeated the Commodores at Vanderbilt Stadium 14-12. The first game of the season is, typically, pretty rough and unpolished. 2016 should be a different story as the matchup is the fourth game of the season for both teams.
Position Group Predictions
Quarterback
Mike White (WKU) vs. Kyle Shurmur (Vandy)
I suppose I will get back on my soap box…
WKU fans have grown accustomed to stout numbers out of their QBs. Anything less than 300 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 70% completion rate per game, fans start calling for the QB to be pulled. Settle down, folks. Let me put things into perspective. Brandon Doughty threw for 2857 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 65.8% completion rate in 2013. He remained QB1 the entire year. In 2014 and 2015, Doughty emerged as the most prolific quarterback in WKU history and led the nation in nearly every statistical category. Trust the system and have a little faith in Brohm’s decisions.
White is still QB1 and still the QB to beat (920 yards, 5 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 3 sacks, and 10.7 yards per attempt). Per ESPN Stats, White had the best Week 1 performance out of any quarterback in the nation over the past 10 years. Against Alabama, sure White had a less than desirable performance, but he was facing the #1 defense in the nation soooo….. The QB game against Miami(OH) was not up to Brohm’s standards. Agreed. However, the entire offense was struggling at times. The worst group of refs I have ever seen did not help the situation, either. White is still #14 in passing yards, #5 in yards per attempt, and #17 in total QBR.
Shurmur is not exactly having the best season. With 335 total yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 51.8% completion rate, it is not even fair to compare White and Shurmur. Vanderbilt is your classic, SEC, defensive-heavy team and depends on their run game to post points. However, with a 1-2 record, the Commodores will be forced to find a new strategy which may involve Shurmur throwing the ole pigskin around a bit more.
Advantage: WKU
Running Back
Other than defense, if there is one thing going Vandy’s way, it would be the run game. On the season, Ralph Webb has accumulated 377 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 5.6 yards per rushing attempt. Against Middle Tennessee, Webb ran for…brace yourselves…211 yards. A majority of Webb’s yards and both touchdowns come from the Middle Tennessee game.
Meanwhile, WKU is finally settling into a groove. Hopefully. An injured D’Andre Ferby and Ace Wales required freshman Quinton Baker to fill some big shoes, and he did: posting 103 rushing yards, 1 touchdown, and 12 receiving yards against Miami(OH). Wales might return for the Vanderbilt matchup and very little has been said about Ferby. Baker’s scatback tendencies (I say that loosely as Baker will infiltrate the defensive line, as well) will pick up big yardage for the Tops and keep the game at a fast tempo.
Advantage: Vanderbilt
Wide Receiver
All you need to know in one tweet:
Advantage: WKU
Tight End
Neither WKU nor Vanderbilt have been tight end heavy this season. However, WKU's ends have an advantage and opportunity with a high-powered offense and a more consistent quarterback than that of Vandy.
Advantage: WKU
Offensive Line
In front of every good running back is an offensive line that opens up the field.
In front of every great quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end is an offensive line with the second most experience in the nation and ranked in the top 15.
The latter describes WKU. BUTTTTTTT Forrest Lamp will be absent from the game after a minor injury sustained from the Miami(OH) game. No need to start throwing in the towels. This is still an extremely talented O-line with an immense amount of depth. No worries from this girl.
Advantage: WKU
Secondary
Unfortunately, WKU's rowdy secondary is now showing signs of instability. The Hilltoppers are ranked 116th in passing defense, allowing 292 passing yards per game. Nope. That is not going to work. Not okay with this girl.
Lesson #1: Swat the ball away. Do not go for the pick and end up tipping the ball that results in a touchdown.
Vanderbilt is not leaps and bounds better, as they are ranked 104th, but they are 12 places better than WKU.
Advantage: Vanderbilt
Linebackers & Defensive Line
We have heard all this talk about how Vanderbilt has a decent defense. They are SEC after all. Let that not diminish the fact that WKU's defense has been absolute key in the wins and kept the loss to Alabama from becoming an absolute blowout.
On paper, Vandy is no better than WKU's defense. Both teams have allowed around 25 points per game. WKU ranks 77th in total yards allowed while Vanderbilt is ranked 102nd. Also, WKU allows fewer rushing yards per game (32nd) than Vandy (93rd). And WKU allows fewer rushing yards than Vandy's previous opponents (South Carolina, Middle Tennessee, and Georgia Tech). Basically, WKU has an opportunity to shut out Vanderbilt's main weapon: their run game. Vandy relies on linebacker Zach Cunningham who has racked up 29 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, and 1 forced fumble. He is a stud, no doubt. However, WKU's top 5 tacklers out tackle Vandy's top 5 99-92.
Basically, this is a tie.
Advantage: Tie
Special Teams
This is not even a competition.
-Kylen Towner #2 in nation in kickoff returns
-Jake Collins #28 in punting average (44.0 yards)
-Nacarius Fant returned a punt for a touchdown against Miami(OH)
-Special Teams #7 in the nation in efficiency
Advantage: WKU
What to expect Saturday
Most likely, this will be a tight game. Intangibles such as playing at home and a potential sell out crowd will give WKU the edge. Should WKU's offense go back to their jaw-dropping performances, WKU will win. Should WKU's offense play like they did against Miami(OH), it will be a longgggg day at the Houch.
Vanderbilt is desperately seeking a win to boost morale. [Other than at home] What better place to win than on the road, against a team that defeated you last season, and just one hour north from your campus? Commodore fans entered the Georgia Tech game with hope and left with disappointment. Will Vandy continue in their old ways or find a way to scrape out a win?
Only time will tell.
Prediction
1st Half: 14-10
2nd Half: 14-7
Hilltoppers win 28-17
