Analyzing the Enemy: Western Michigan Broncos (First Responder Bowl)

Day: Monday, December 30

Time: 11:30 AM CST

Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium

Network: ESPN

Betting line: WKU -3 | O/U: 55

History: This will be the fifteenth meeting between the Hilltoppers and Broncos. Western Michigan leads the matchup 11-3-1. The two last faced each other in 1947 when the Broncos defeated the Hilltoppers by a score of 38-0.

Records: WKU enters the game 8-4 and tied for second in C-USA East. WMU enters the game 7-5 and second in MAC West.

Quarterback

After WKU lost starting quarterback Steven Duncan to a season-ending foot injury, Arkansas-transfer Ty Storey assumed the role seamlessly. WKU has since gone 7-2 under his command. Proving to be more than just a game manager, Storey is undeniably consistent, accurate, explosive, and simply makes plays. In his nine regular season starts, Storey is 206-of-294 (70.1%) for 2,209 passing yards, 12 passing touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. His completion rate is the seventh-best in the nation. The mobile playmaker also extends plays with his feet: having 105 carries for 246 rushing yards, 2.3 yards per carry, and 7 rushing touchdowns. As an added bonus to his resume, he touts an 8-yard receiving touchdown from Lucky Jackson. The pinnacle of his lone season on the Hill was when he returned to Fayetteville to face his previous team. He torched the Razorbacks by going 22-of-32 for 213 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, and had 17 carries for 77 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. Such a performance earned him, both, C-USA Offensive Player of the Week and Manning Award National Quarterback of the Week. On December 11, 2019, Storey was named the C-USA Newcomer of the Year.

Vetern and senior quarterback Jon Wassink enters the bowl game 222-of-371 (59.8%) for 2,904 passing yards, 19 passing touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Additionally, he has 63 carries for 293 rushing yards, 4.7 yards per carry, and 3 rushing touchdowns. WKU's rushing defense will pull out all of the stops to slow down and limit MAC Offensive Player of the Year running back LeVante Bellamy's impact, so Wassink will have to do even more with his arm and legs in order to make play. Even if able to effectively to do so, it is uncertain if Wassink's efforts would be enough to carry the team.

Advantage: WKU

Receiver

The latter half of WKU's season saw the passing attack come alive with the help of wideouts Lucky Jackson and Jahcour Pearson. Jackson leads the receiving corps with 77 receptions, 985 yards, 12.8 yards per reception, 3 touchdowns, and an 8-yard passing touchdown to Storey. The shifty Pearson has 71 receptions, 772 yards, 10.9 yards per reception, and 6 touchdowns. While the Hilltoppers are not high-octane or racking up yards similar to that of the 2014-2016 seasons, between Jackson and Pearson (and Storey), they are able to stretch the field with a few explosive plays per game. The Hilltoppers are made even more dangerous if they are able to get the ball into the hands of several receivers as they did against Southern Miss. and MTSU. Between the final two games of the regular season, tight end Joshua Simon and wide receiver Quin Jernighan were responsible for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Western Michigan's receiving corps is led by freshman wideout Skyy Moore with 47 receptions for 734 yards, 15.6 yards per reception, and 3 touchdowns. In the Broncos' final two games of the regular season, Moore accumulated 13 receptions for 287 yards and 1 receiving touchdown as well as 1 carry for a 2-yard touchdown. Tight end Giovanni Ricci has 47 receptions for 622 yards, 13.2 yards per reception, and 8 touchdowns. Defending against good tight ends can be a challenge, so it would not be surprising if Ricci has an impressive game.

Western Michigan has not been the greatest against the pass. Storey and his receiving corps have proven to be formidable against any and all defenses they have faced especially since Arkansas.

Advantage: WKU

Running Back

Gaej Walker, who converted from defensive back, leads the Hilltoppers ground attack with 226 carries, 1,115 yards, 4.9 yards per carry, 8 touchdowns, and 7 games in which he posted 100+ yards. He has been the Tops cemented go-to guy since Game 1 and is the first running back since Ace Wales (2016) to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark. Storey is the team's second-leading rusher with 105 carries for 246 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns. As of late, wide receiver Jacquez Sloan adds an extra dimension to the ground game. In back-to-back games, Sloan successfully ran and scored off of a reverse. For three consecutive games, Sloan had 1 carry per game and averaged 18.6 yards per carry.

LeVante Bellamy - the MAC Offensive Player of the Year - has 248 carries for 1,412 yards, 5.7 yards per carry, 23 touchdowns, and 8 games in which he has posted 100+ yards. Bellamy leads the nation (along with SMU's Xavier Jones) in total rushing touchdowns and is 11th in total rushing yards. Sean Tyler and Davon Tucker each have 300+ rushing yards and a combined 7 touchdowns. Bellamy is, currently, nursing a knee injury and it is not clear if he will play during the bowl game. Obviously, the goal is the shut down or at least limit Bellamy's yards per carry and ability to find the endzone. The last time the Broncos faced a top-30 defense, they were defeated 51-17 and Bellamy had 15 carries for 44 yards, 2.9 yards per carry, and 0 touchdowns.

While it might be a challenge to stop Bellamy, do not be quick to give the advantage to the Broncos. Western Michigan's rushing defense allows an average 186.5 yards per game, 4.8 yards per carry, and 1.5 touchdowns per game. Between the likes of Walker and Storey, WKU's ground attack can be methodical, disruptive, and can convert on crucial third and fourth downs.

Advantage: Even

Offensive Line

The Hilltoppers' o-line has allowed 18 sacks while the Broncos' have allowed 17. WKU's veteran line has been the backbone to a balanced offense: able to open up lanes for a successful ground game as well as protect the very mobile Storey. Likewise, Western Michigan's Bellamy would not have his success without help from his line.

Advantage: Even

Secondary

The Hilltopper secondary is led by Devon Key, Antwon Kincade, Ta'Corian Darden, and Trae Meadows. The four have combined for 241 total tackles, 10 TFLs, 5-of-9 INT, 21 pass breakups, 2 quarterback hurries, 2 fumble recoveries, and 1 blocked kick. For three consecutive games, WKU's secondary has forced at least 1 pick. The passing defense has allowed 2,406 yards, a completion rate of 53.4%, 200.5 yards per game, 7.4 yards per pass, and 16 touchdowns.

Justin Tranquill, A.J. Thomas, Patrick Lupro, Stefan Claiborne, and Anton Curtis lead the Broncos' secondary. The five have combined for 283 total tackles, 10.5 TFLs, 5-of-11 INT, 21 pass breakups, 2 quarterback hurries, 2 forced fumbles, and 2 fumble recoveries. Western Michigan's passing defense has allowed 2,737 yards, a completion rate of 66.8%, 228.1 yards per game, 7.2 yards per pass, and 19 touchdowns. The Broncos have not forced an interception since facing Bowling Green on October 26.

Neither quarterback is prone to costly mistakes nor turnovers. Both teams' pass rush will have to play aggressively and force them into such circumstances.

Advantage: WKU

Linebacker

Kyle Bailey, who converted from defensive back this season, leads WKU's linebacking corps and defense with 98 total tackles, 6.0 TFLs, 0.5 sacks, 2 INTs, 2 pass breakups, and 7 quarterback hurries. And after a fairly quiet start to the season, Clay Davis has emerged now with 50 total tackles, 3.0 TFLs, 1.0 sack, 2 pass breakups, 1 quarterback hurry, and 1 forced fumble. Against MTSU, Davis had an impressive 13 total tackles, 2.0 TFLs, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble, and 1 pass breakup.

Treshaun Hayward - the MAC Defensive Player of the Year - and Drake Spears lead the Broncos' defense with a combined 220 total tackles, 13 TFLs, 5.5 sacks, 2 INTs, 3 pass breakups, 4 quarterback hurries, 3 fumble recoveries, and 1 forced fumble. Alex Grace is responsible for 55 total tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 1 sack, 1 INT, and 1 pass breakup. The linebackers and pass rush are the Broncos' defensive strength.

Advantage: WMU

Defensive Line

Hilltopper defensive end and C-USA Defensive Player of the Year DeAngelo Malone leads the defensive front with 90 total tackles, 21.0 TFLs, 11.5 sacks, 16 quarterback hurries, 1 forced fumble, and 1 fumble recovery for a score. He is tied 11th nationally in sacks and 5th nationally in TFLs. The Broncos will have their hands full with Malone as he is able to make tackles all over the field. His counterpart, Juwuan Jones has 53 total tackles, 11.5 TFLs, 6.0 sacks, and 8 quarterback hurries. The two combined will pose a a huge threat to a WMU o-line that has been good against the pass rush.

Western Michigan's defensive line is led by defensive ends Ali Fayad and Timothy Collins. The two have combined for 91 total tackles, 23 TFLs, 11.5 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 7 quarterback hurries, 5 forced fumbles, and 1 fumble recovery. The Broncos rotate in quite a few players to keep their pass rush fresh.

WKU's defensive front - Malone, Jones, as well as tackles Jaylon George, Jalen Madden, and Jeremy Darvin - has been too much for most teams to handle.

Advantage: WKU

Special Teams

On the season, WKU placekicker Cory Munson has gone 14-of-24 on field goals and 37-of-38 on extra points. Should this game get close, making field goals is of utmost importance. Punter John Haggerty is averaging 46.21 yards per punt with 16 punts inside of the 20 yard line. Roger Cray has returned 5 punts for 28 yards and 5.6 yards per return. Between Garland LaFrance and Jacquez Sloan, the two have combined for 29 kick returns, 538 yards, and 18.55 yards per return.

Western Michigan placekicker Thiago Kapps has gone 8-of-13 on field goals and 46-of-48 on extra points. Punter Nick Mihalic is averaging 41.87 yards per punt with 8 punts inside of the 20 yard line. Keith Mixon has returned 9 punts for 4.3 yards per return. Additionally, Mixon has 25 kick returns for 706 yards and 28.24 yards per return.

Advantage: WMU

On paper, the odds are in WKU's favor. However, games are not won based on a previous stat sheet. This could be a very interesting matchup given Western Michigan's offense versus WKU's defense. Do no count out the Broncos' defense or the Hilltoppers' offense, though. Western Michigan defense does a good job turning over the ball, while WKU's offense can play smart, methodical ball.

Western Michigan wins if they can play as FAU did against WKU: force costly turnovers and score on those turnovers.

WKU wins if they play balanced as they have been as well as limit Bellamy. If WMU cannot ride Bellamy's coattails, it is not clear how they would perform.

Prediction

Tyson Helton (C-USA Coach of the Year) and his Hilltoppers win 28-20.

Other Facts

-WMU's nickname was once the Hilltoppers until it was changed to the Broncos.

-Each of WMU's five losses during the regular season were away games.

-WKU is riding a 3-0 streak.

-Last year's First Responder Bowl was canceled due to weather.