Looking Ahead: Troy Trojans
This Saturday, the Hilltoppers will be in Troy, Alabama with the opportunity and expectation of beginning a 9-0 run for the remainder of their schedule.
The Trojans, who are 1-2, will be hosting the Hilltoppers in Veterans Memorial Stadium following a home loss this previous weekend against James Madison, 16-14.
What should the Hilltoppers expect?
Gunnar Watson, QB1: Watson has been a part of the Troy program since 2018, and has assumed the starting quarterback role since 2020. In 2022, the Sun Belt Championship MVP combined for 2,818 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions on top of his two rushing scores. So far in 2023, Watson has played relatively well, posting 698 passing yards, seven passing scores and three interceptions across three games. Watson isn’t a threat on the ground, having combined for -231 rushing yards since 2022. In the air, Watson has accumulated a 10.9% turnover worthy play rate, according to Pro Football Focus. WKU’s turnover-focused defense should trouble the sixth year veteran.
Their Run Game Is Below Average: How else can I say it? Across three games, the Trojans have posted 400 rushing yards and a single rushing score. The run game is ranked 91st in the nation. The Western Kentucky run defense is ranked 129th in the nation, so while Troy will have one of their better games on the ground, it won’t be the end-all.
Three 100+ Yard Receivers: The Trojans have spread the ball out to three primary receivers: Jabre Barber, Chris Lewis, and Devonte Ross, who have combined for 420 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 13.1 yards per catch. Tight end Ethan Conner has been an impact, hauling in six receptions for 75 yards and two scores. If Troy wants to maximize their chances at beating Western Kentucky, they’ll heavily employ their passing game underneath and keep a rotating room of fresh legs in the backfield.
Defensive Heavy, You’ll See Below…: While Troy doesn’t have much going on offensively, they can boast that they have a better defense than Wisconsin, Washington, Ole Miss through three weeks on paper. They have the 49th ranked run defense, the 42nd ranked passing defense, and 12th ranked first downs defense. In total, their defense sits at 47th, just below Alabama.
Richard Jibunor, The Sack Artist: A very cool fact here - Jibunor, a senior, has the most career sacks by an active player at the FBS level. The 2022 All-Sun Belt Third Team honoree has totalled 21 sacks in his career, with one so far in 2023, and 7.5 just last season. The six-foot-three, 230 pound Bandit is an athletic and rangy threat the Hilltoppers should keep a careful eye on.
Dell Pettus Alert: A 2019 Freshman All-American (PFF), Pettus started all 14 games for the Trojans last season. He’s currently having a lights out season, posting the highest defensive grade on the team (85.6), along with 17 tackles, a tackle for loss, and two pass breakups. On the other hand, through 14 targets, he has allowed nine receptions, with 24 yards after the catch.
D-FENCE! D-FENCE! Reddy Steward, Jayden McDonald, Javon Solomon: Steward is one of the better defensive backs in the entire nation. A 2022 First Team All-Sun Belt honoree, Steward has been consistently one of the best players for Troy since 2020. In 2022, he earned an electric 90.7 total defensive rating from PFF, including a 90.5 grade in coverage. So far this season, he’s posted a 73.6 grade (still very good), including 12 tackles, a tackle for loss, two interceptions and two breakups…in three games! McDonald, a linebacker, is coming off of a season-ending injury he sustained in 2022. Nonetheless, he’s been electric with 18 tackles, three tackles for loss, and a pass breakup. Defensive EDGE Solomon, another 2022 All-Sun Belt honoree, has been sensational in his career as a Trojan. In 2023, he's put up 11 tackles, two tackles for loss, two sacks, and two quarterback hits.
Did I scare anyone with that defensive fact? I hope not. Western Kentucky comes in boasting one of the best offenses in the nation. Though the Ohio State game knocked the Hilltoppers down the poll a bit, the passing offense still sits at 29th nationally with 796 yards, seven touchdowns, and a single interception coming from Austin Reed. The offense should pick up and explode for the next nine games.
On the defensive side of the ball, Western Kentucky isn’t faring well in any category aside from turnovers gained, being eight, which is tied for second in the nation. If WKU wants to take the Conference USA title, the defense has to be better.
Final score prediction: 38-24 | Western Kentucky victory