Day: Saturday, November 30

Time: 1:00 PM CST

Location: Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

Network: ESPN+

Betting line: WKU -8.5 | O/U: 47.5

History: MTSU leads the rivalry 35-32-1. Last year, the Blue Raiders defeated the Hilltoppers by a score of 29-10 at Floyd Stadium. However, WKU has won 3 of the last 4 meetings.

Quarterbacks

Heading into his eighth start, it is safe to say that WKU's Ty Storey is more than a game manager. The graduate transfer made an immediate and needed impact starting Game 4 of the season. Since then, he has been irrefutably consistent, accurate, explosive, and tough. On the season, Storey has gone 183-of-264 (69.3%) for 1,915 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Able to extend plays with his feet, Storey has also had 93 carries for 184 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns. And last week, it was Storey who shined while the league's best quarterback made uncharacteristic mistakes. Against Southern Miss., Storey went 20-of-30 for 225 yards and 2 passing touchdowns.

On the season, MTSU's Asher O'Hara is 192-of-302 (63.6%) for 2,315 passing yards, 17 passing touchdowns and 7 interceptions. And while those numbers are certainly respectable, it is his added mobility that makes him a weapon. O'Hara currently has 170 carries for 900 rushing yards, 5.3 yards per carry, and 9 rushing touchdowns. He has no less than 32 rushing yards in a single game this season and averages 81.8 rushing yards per game. In last week's win over Old Dominion, O'Hara went 18-of-25 (72.0%) for 185 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, and had 14 carries for 78 yards. As a bit of a measuring stick...WKU's defense faced a dual-threat quarterback in Charlotte's Chris Reynolds earlier this season and held him to 37 rushing yards.

If we are looking at pure talent between the two quarterbacks, it is arguably an even advantage. However, given what MTSU's passing defense allows and what WKU's defense has been able to do...

Advantage: WKU

Receivers

The Hilltoppers' passing attack has come alive as of late, and that is thanks to playmakers like Lucky Jackson and Jahcour Pearson. WKU might not be racking up 300+ yards through the air each game, but between the aforementioned wideouts and Storey, they are able to take the top off of defenses with a couple of explosive plays per game. It was Jackson's game throughout the Charlotte, Marshall, and FAU matchups: accumulating 30 receptions for 503 yards and 1 touchdown. Since the Arkansas game , Pearson has 17 receptions for 208 yards and 2 touchdowns. In last week's Analyzing the Enemy, it was stated "if the speedy Jacquez Sloan or tight ends Joshua Simon or Kyle Fourtenbary step up in a big way, WKU's passing attack could be just as lethal [as USM's]." The Hilltoppers found several guys, and it opened up the game in a big way. In addition to Pearson's stats, Simon had 2 receptions for 51 yards and Quin Jernighan had 4 receptions for 50 yards and 1 touchdown.

Three Blue Raider receivers have over 400 yards receiving: Jarrin Pierce, Ty Lee, and Jimmy Marshall. O'Hara might not have Brent Stockstill's arm and accuracy, but having those three wideouts certainly makes his job easier. Pierce has 39 receptions for 524 yards and 3 touchdowns, Lee has 44 receptions for 474 yards and 2 touchdowns, and Marshall has 31 receptions for 459 yards and 6 touchdowns. Marshall has scored at least one touchdown in each of the past four games.

Advantage: WKU

Running Backs

With his previously mentioned numbers, it should not be surprising that O'Hara leads MTSU's ground game, as well. He is the Blue Raiders best threat out of the backfield and responsible for 47.7% of the team's total rushing yards. Behind O'Hara is Terelle West with 39 carries for 290 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Gaej Walker leads WKU with 212 carries for 996 yards, 4.7 yards per carry, and 7 touchdowns. Walker ranks second in the league in total rushing yards. And, again, Storey sticks his nose down and is able to extend plays with his feet (see above rushing stats). Additionally, wide receiver Jacquez Sloan has been adding an extra dimension to the ground attack: successfully running and scoring off of a reverse against Arkansas and Southern Miss. For three consecutive games, Sloan has had 1 carry and averaged 18.6 yards per carry.

WKU's rushing defense ranks among one of the best in the league: allowing 134.8 yards per game, 3.8 yards per carry, and 11 touchdowns. MTSU's rushing defense has allowed 190.0 yards per game, 4.8 yards per carry, and 18 touchdowns. O'Hara will scramble and pick up some positive yards, but WKU's defense has proven capable of reacting and limiting those plays and yards.

Advantage: WKU

Offensive Line

For back-to-back games, WKU's offensive line has not allowed a single sack against Storey while the ground game has averaged 199.5 yards. The Tops' o-line ranks #117 in line yards, #98 in standard downs yard lines, #127 in passing downs yard lines, #100 in opportunity rate, #14 in power success rate, #88 in stuff rate, #25 in sack rate, #30 in standard downs sack rate, and #29 in passing downs sack rate.

Likewise, MTSU has not allowed a single sack for back-to-back games while the ground game has averaged 126.5 yards. The Blue Raiders' o-line ranks #30 in line yards, #20 in standard downs line yards, #66 in passing downs yard lines, #16 in opportunity rate, #10 in power success rate, #66 in stuff rate, #41 in sack rate, #91 in standard downs sack rate, and #6 in passing downs sack rate.

Advantage: Even

Secondary

The Hilltopper secondary is [statistically] led by Devon Key, Antwon Kincade, Ta'Corian Darden, and Trae Meadows. The four have combined for 224 total tackles, 10 TFLs, 5-of-9 INTs, 18 pass breakups, 2 quarterback hurries, and 1 fumble recovery. In back-to-back games (Arkansas and Southern Miss.), Kincade has come up with a pick. The passing defense ranks second in the league: allowing 2,105 total passing yards, 191.4 yards per game, a completion rate of 53.2%, 7.2 yards per pass attempt, and 13 touchdowns.

MTSU's secondary as well as defense is led by Jovante Moffat with 91 total tackles, 3 INTs, and 1 pass breakup. Kylan Stribling has seen an increase in his role since Reed Blankenship went down with an injury in October. Stribling has 38 total tackles, 1.0 TFL, 1 INT, 4 pass breakups, and 1 quarterback hurry. The Blue Raiders' passing defense has allowed the most yards (3,265) and yards per game (272.1). They have also allowed a 65.3% completion rate, 7.6 yards per pass attempt, and 22 touchdowns.

Given the weather forecast, neither team will likely air it out, but WKU's secondary has been more productive.

Advantage: WKU

Linebackers

Kyle Bailey leads WKU's linebacking corps and defense with 88 total tackles, 6.0 TFLs, 0.5 sacks, 2 INT, 2 pass breakups, and 7 quarterback hurries. Last week, Bailey was responsible for 11 total tackles, 1.5 TFLs, 0.5 sacks, 1 quarterback hurry, and 1 pass breakup. For the first half of the season this position group was fairly quiet and was not too disruptive; however, Clay Davis' increased role has boosted the defensive production and the pass rush has been able to force quarterbacks into more mistakes. Davis has 37 total tackles, 1.0 TFL, 1 pass breakup, and 1 quarterback hurry. With O'Hara's mobility, WKU may elect to use a spy to limit his effectiveness.

DQ Thomas, Chris Melton, and Khalil Brooks lead the Blue Raiders with a combined 166 total tackles, 21 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 4 pass breakups, 13 quarterback hurries, 2 fumble recoveries, and 2 forced fumbles.

WKU's linebacking corps will have a tall order of keeping O'Hara in check...

Advantage: MTSU

Defensive Line

Hilltopper defensive end DeAngelo Malone and last week's C-USA Defensive Player of the Week leads the defensive front with 83 total tackles, 20.0 TFLs, 10.0 sacks, and 15 quarterback hurries. To seal the win over Souther Miss., defensive lineman Jeremy Darvin forced a fumble and Malone scooped the ball and ran it in for a 5 yard score. He leads the league in, both, TFLs and sacks, and is third nationally in TFLs. MTSU will have their hands full as Malone is able to make tackles all over the field. His counterpart, Juwuan Jones has 49 total tackles, 9.5 TFLs, 5.0 sacks, and 8 quarterback hurries. The talented ends will put a lot of needed pressure on O'Hara.

The Blue Raiders' defensive line is also led by ends Tyshun Render and Trae Philpots. Render has 47 total tackles, 9.5 TFLs, 3.0 sacks, 1 INT, 5 pass breakups, 3 quarterback hurries, 2 fumble recoveries, and 2 forced fumbles. Philpots has 40 total tackles, 3.0 TFLs, 0.5 sacks, and 5 quarterback hurries.

The weather will make this a defensive game, and WKU's defensive front has been able to control the line of scrimmage.

Advantage: WKU

Special Teams

On the season, WKU's Cory Munson has gone 13-of-21 on field goals and 33-of-34 on extra points. Punter John Haggerty leads the league with 46.2 yards per punt with 14 inside of the 20 yard line. Roger Cray has returned 3 punts for an average of 8.33 yards per return. The kick return game has seen Garland LaFrance, Jacquez Sloan, and Dayton Wade with impressive returns. Combined, they average 20.03 yards per return.

MTSU placekicker Crews Holt has gone 9-of-12 on field goals and 33-of-35 on extra points. Punter Kyle Ulbrich averages 41.55 yards per punt with 9 inside of the 20 yard line. Ty Lee leads both kick and punt returns. On 4 punt returns, Lee has averaged 2.75 yards per return. On 3 kick returns, he has averaged 21.67 yards per return.

Advantage: Even

Theoretically, you stop O'Hara, you stop a vast majority of the Blue Raiders' production. Due to weather, both teams will likely depend on the run a bit more. Although O'Hara leads the ground attack, WKU cannot overlook guys like Terelle West, Jay McDonald, Chaton Mobley, or Brad Anderson. Although MTSU is 4-7, they have played a little better than their record indicates. WKU has to avoid costly turnovers and fumbles due to a a slippery football. The Hilltoppers will have to be a little more creative on the run selection so that Walker does not tire. Nonetheless, given the Tops' strength in the offensive line, just pound the ball and it should get the job done.

Prediction

WKU 27, MTSU 17