Day: Saturday, October 2

Time: 6:30PM CST

Location: Spartan Stadium

Network: FS1

Betting line: Michigan State -10.5 | O/U: 64.0

History: This will be the first meeting between the two programs.

Quarterbacks

Through three games, WKU's Bailey Zappe has completed 87-of-119 pass attempts (73.1%) for 1,224 yards, 408 yards per game, 10.3 yards per pass attempt, and 13 touchdowns as well as and 2 interceptions. He ranks #10 in total passing yards, #2 in passing yards per game, #8 in completion percentage, tied for #3 in passing touchdowns, and boasts the third best passer rating in the nation. Against Indiana, Zappe completed 31-of-44 pass attempts (70.5%) for 365 yards, 8.3 yards per pass attempt, and 3 touchdowns. After facing three vastly different opponents, Zappe has proven to be calm, consistent, reliable, explosive, and knows how to light up the scoreboard (and stat sheet).

Payton Thorne leads the Spartans having completed 62-of-100 pass attempts (62.0%) for 909 yards, 227.3 yards per game, 9.09 yards per pass attempt, and 10 touchdowns as well as 1 interception. In the overtime win against Nebraska, Thorne completed 14-of-23 pass attempts (60.9%) for 183 yards, 7.9 yards per pass attempt, and 1 touchdown as well as threw 1 interception. Through four games, he's been efficient and kept the ball out of defender's hands.

Zappe and WKU's aerial attack will be unlike anything Michigan State has faced so far. The Spartans have played two games in which the opposing quarterback threw for over 40 pass attempts...but neither of those opponents implement an Air-Raid style offense.

Advantage: WKU

Receivers

While Zappe is impressive enough as he is, the Hilltoppers' boast a deep and explosive group of receivers. Zappe's go-to guy, Jerreth Sterns, has 23 receptions for 360 yards, 120.0 yards per game, and 4 touchdowns. Other leaders include Mitchell Tinsley, Malachi Corley, Daewood Davis, and Craig Burt Jr. Sterns, Tinsley, Corley, Davis, and Burt Jr. combine for 68 receptions, 1,059 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Those five receivers average 15.6 yards per reception while Davis averages a 26.4 yards per reception, alone. Burt Jr. has a 100% reception percentage while Sterns and Tinsley average 82.1% and 87.5% reception percentage, respectively. Simply put, WKU's aerial attack is the whole package and they're hard to stop.

Like the Tops, the Spartans have depth at receiver, including two of their top three pass catchers from 2020: Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor. Through four games, Reed leads the Spartans with 16 receptions for 336 yards, 21.0 yards per reception, and 4 touchdowns. Nailor adds 10 receptions for 141 yards, 14.1 yards per reception, and 3 touchdowns. Reed, Nailor, Tre Mosley, and Connor Heyward total 47 receptions for 786 yards, 16.7 yards per reception, and 7 touchdowns.

Interestingly, both WKU's and Michigan State's go-to wideouts share a history with their quarterback. Sterns (as well as his brother and Ben Ratzlaff) was Zappe's top target while at Houston Baptist. Meanwhile, Reed went to high school with Thorne. Reed was probably going to be the go-to no matter the starting quarterback, but the Reed-Thorne duo and their history just adds that much more chemistry.

Advantage: WKU

Running Backs

In most Air Raid style offenses, it is not likely you will see the ground game accumulate huge yardage (*see any Mike Leach offense). Rather, the job of the running back in this type of offense is to a) pick up a healthy 4.0+ yards per carry/keep defense's honest and b) successfully execute running back screens. So far, WKU has totaled 64 carries (21.0 per game), 224 rushing yards (74.6 per game), and 3 rushing touchdowns (1.0 per game). They've averaged 3.8 yards per carry. More importantly, the Hilltoppers' leading rushers - Adam Cofield and Noah Whittington - are averaging 4.2 yards per carry. Against Indiana, the two combined for 16 carries, 81 yards, 5.0 yards per carry, and 1 touchdown.

Come Saturday, WKU's rushing defense will be facing the nation's leader in total rushing yards. Kenneth Walker III leads Michigan State's ground attack with 76 carries, 554 rushing yards (138.5 per game), 7.3 yards per carry, and 5 touchdowns. All 5 of Walker's touchdowns came during the first two games of the season. Behind Walker is Jordan Simmons with 26 carries for 145 yards and 5.6 yards per carry; a majority of those stats come from the Youngstown State game. As of September 29, Walker leads the nation in most forced missed tackles (40) by a running back.

Given WKU's rushing defense's struggles...

Advantage: Michigan State

Offensive Line

After not allowing a single sack on Zappe during Game 1 and then 3.0 during Game 2, the Hilltoppers' o-line did not allow a single sack during the Indiana game. Like Zappe, they have proven to be resilient no matter the opponent. And given WKU's dependency on the Air Raid's effectiveness and efficiency, the line must be steadfast in pass blocking. Heading into the matchup, WKU's pass block ranks #2 with a PFF Grade of 89.1 and their run block ranks # 57 with a PFF Grade of 64.8.

Through four games, Michigan State has allowed 8 sacks (2.0 per game) and in back-to-back games, the Spartans have allowed 3.0 sacks. Opposite that of WKU's line, Michigan State's pass block ranks #58 with a PFF Grade of 61.5 and their run block ranks #10 with a PFF Grade of 78.7. Obviously, Walker cannot be Walker without his line opening the way.

Both lines do a great job of protecting their offensive strengths.

Advantage: Even

Secondary

Going into the Indiana game, WKU's secondary's capabilities were relatively unknown due to the nature of playing Army's triple-option offense. During the matchup, WKU allowed Michael Penix Jr. to complete 35-of-53 (66.0%) pass attempts for 373 yards and 7.0 yards per pass attempt. With his 15 total tackles, 1.0 tackle for loss, 1.0 sack, and 1 forced fumble against the Hoosiers, A.J. Brathwaite Jr. nabbed Conference USA's Co-Defensive Player of the Week accolade. Heading into the Michigan State game, Antwon Kincade leads the team with 26 total tackles. Overall, the defense has lacked big play performances. Through three games, the Tops only have 1 pick. Winning the turnover battle could prove to be essential versus a run-heavy offense like Michigan State who tends to control both the ball and the clock. Although opportunities may come few and far between, the secondary must capitalize when the chance arises. WKU ranks #80 in coverage with a PFF Grade of 66.3.

Through four games, the Spartans have allowed 109-of-171 pass attempts (64.0%) for 1,056 yards (264.0 yards per game), and 5 touchdowns. With four interceptions, they average 1.0 pick per game. As mentioned earlier, WKU's passing game will be different than that of Northwestern, Youngstown State, Miami, and Nebraska. While they've faced opponents who thew for over 40 pass attempts, that number was more situational. Xavier Henderson leads the secondary and team with 42 total tackles, 4.0 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, 1 interception, and 1 pass breakup. Angelo Grose adds 23 total tackles, 1 interception, and 3 pass breakups.

Advantage: Michigan State

Linebackers

Against Indiana, WKU linebackers Will Ignont and Demetrius Cain accounted for 16 total tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 0.5 sack, and 1 quarterback hurry. Through three games, they have totaled 34 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 0.5 sacks, 1 quarterback hurry, and 1 fumble recovery. Once again, they will need to be committed to run support and force Thorne into passing situations.

Michigan State's linebacker corps - led by Cal Haladay and Quavaris Crouch - has totaled 51 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, 3 pass breakups, 3 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 forced fumble. To this point, they have not faced a team that passes at this rate. Will they be able to cover or will they be able to put pressure on Zappe? No matter, they will need to throw off his timing and rhythm with his receiver corps to have success.

Advantage: Michigan State

Defensive Line

Through three games, WKU's rushing defense has allowed 224.0 yards per game, 9 touchdowns, and 4.8 yards per carry. Now a pattern, opponents and their ground attack have been able to consistently control the game and clock. Given Walker and his abilities, there's no reason to believe the Spartans will not do the same. The rushing defense has its struggles, but the defense has been able to put pressure on quarterbacks (especially last week). On the season, the d-line has totaled 97 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 5 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 2 forced fumbles. The Hilltoppers' rushing defense ranks #85 with a PFF Grade of 66.8 and the pass rush ranks #44 with a PFF Grade of 77.0. If WKU’s defense stands any chance this week, then it could come down to a battle in the trenches. WKU's d-line doesn’t necessarily have to win the battle, but they need to come up with enough stops to give Zappe and company possessions to score.

Michigan State's rushing defense has allowed 132.5 yards per game, 4 touchdowns, and 3.4 yards per carry. The Spartans' rushing defense ranks #64 with a PFF Grade of 71.9 and the pass rush ranked #16 with a PFF Grade of 82.6. They've totaled 82 tackles, 16.0 tackles for loss, 9.5 sacks, 4 pass breakups, 9 quarterback hurries, 2 fumble recoveries, and 3 forced fumbles. The Spartans' pass rush has ranked pretty high in PFF rankings, but they will have their hands full with the strongest pass attack they have faced thus far. Going against a strong Hilltopper o-line and a quarterback that gets rid of the ball fast will not be an easy task, however, getting pressure to Zappe will prove necessary for them to disrupt this offense.

Advantage: Michigan State

Special Teams

Punter John Haggerty has only had to punt 4 times. He has totaled 199 yards for an average of 49.75 yards per punt and has had 3 punts land inside of the 20-yard line. Against Indiana, Haggerty punted 3 times for 155 yards, 51.67 yards per punt, and had a long of 61 yards. Kicker Brayden Narveson is 2-of-2 on field goals and 17-of-17 on extra point kicks. Jerreth Sterns has 2 punt returns for an average 15.5 yards per return. Beanie Bishop and Joey Beljan total 7 kickoff returns for 170 yards and 24.29 yards per return.

Michigan State's Bryce Baringer has punted 17 times for 905 yards, 53.24 yards per punt, and with 7 punts inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Matt Coghlin is 5-of-9 on field goals and 18-of-18 on extra point kicks. Jayden Reed and Cade McDonald combine for 5 punt returns, 109 yards, and 21.8 yards per return while Reed has 1 punt return touchdown. Reed and Jalen Nailor total 6 kickoff returns for 148 yards, and 24.67 yards per return.

Advantage: Even

Michigan State has exceeded season expectations as they enter their Homecoming game 4-0 and ranked #17. However, WKU serves as the ultimate trap game. A 4-0/ranked team would usually be favored by more than 10 points against a 1-2 opponent. However, WKU's 1-2 record is misleading. The Hilltoppers rank #37 in PFF's Grade for Overall Performance, and they're the only team in PFF's Overall Top 50 with a losing record.

WKU's aerial attack will be a new challenge to Michigan State's defense while Walker (and an efficient Thorne) will be a challenge to a Hilltopper defense that continues to struggle against the run.

WKU - 28

Michigan State - 36

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