Day: Saturday, November 9

Time: 11:00 AM CST

Location: Razorback Stadium

Network: SECN

Betting line: ARK -1.5 | O/U: 51.0

History: This will be the first meeting between the two teams.

Quarterback

The "storey-line," of course, is that WKU QB Ty Storey will face the team from which he transferred. In 2018, while at Arkansas, Storey went 143-of-250 (57.2%) for 1,584 yards, 11 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and had 67 carries for 146 yards and 1 touchdown. After the season, Arkansas head coach Chad Morris did not shy away from stating that he would like to upgrade the position whether it be from recruiting efforts or the transfer portal. Now a Hilltopper, Storey has found more consistent success. Through six games starting under center, Storey has gone 141-of-202 (69.8%) for 1,477 yards, 7 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and has 70 carries for 99 yards and 4 touchdowns. He has brought back a consistent and an explosive component that WKU had sorely missed for a while.

John Stephen Jones - the grandson of Cowboys' owner Jerry Jones - will get the start this Saturday. Jones will be the sixth Razorback quarterback to start in 2019. His previous playing time and statistics this season are not significant enough to draw conclusions nor the most indicative of his capabilities in a full game. Through two games, Jones has gone 10-of-16 (62.5%) for 74 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 9 carries for 17 yards. As relief, he led touchdown drives against Alabama and Mississippi State. Morris indicated that KJ Jefferson will be Jones' backup and expects both to play.

Advantage: WKU

Receivers

For the third-consecutive game, wideout Lucky Jackson has posted 100+ yards. The senior is playing his best ball, unfortunately, WKU has only gone 1-2 the past three games. Since the Charlotte game, Jackson has 30 receptions for 503 yards and 2 receiving touchdowns. Last week, against FAU, Jackson had 9 receptions for 194 yards (a career high), 21.6 yards per reception, and 1 touchdown. Despite FAU's best efforts, Jackson could not be stopped. The only time the Owls were able to get him was in triple coverage in the fourth quarter as they picked off Storey.

Rounding out the rest of the Hilltopper receiving corps are wide receivers Jahcour Pearson, Jacquez Sloan, and Quin Jernighan, as well as tight end Josh Simon. Last week, the speedy Sloan had his best game of the season with 6 receptions, 51 yards, a long of 21 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 carry for 16 yards.

Tight end Cheyenne O'Grady led the Razorbacks' receiving corps with 33 receptions for 372 yards, 11.3 yards per reception, and 3 touchdowns. However, after an undisclosed suspension, O'Grady opted to leave the program as of Monday, November 4. Three other receivers - Trey Knox, Mike Woods, and Treylon Burks - have at least 300 receiving yards. Knox missed a Wednesday practice with the flu according to Andrew Hutchinson at HawgBeat.com. The passing game, which has struggled to get the ball downfield, has collapsed amidst quarterback woes and young receivers. The hope is that Jones will bring the pass attack and young [but talented] receivers to life.

Advantage: WKU

Running Backs

Gaej Walker - the fourth leading rusher in the league - leads the ground attack with 169 carries, 783 yards, 4.6 yards per carry, and 6 touchdowns. He has had five games in which he ran at least 100 yards. As of late, WKU's ground game was stopped by Charlotte and FAU while Walker was able to post 102 yards and 2 touchdowns against Marshall. The mobile Storey, while not good for any explosive runs, has been able to extend plays and drives using his legs: keeping the defense honest and account for his running ability. The ground attack could have another big game against an Arkansas rushing defense that has allowed 221.0 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry.

Rakeem Boyd has been an offensive bright spot for the Razorbacks. On the season, he has 142 carries for 820 yards, 5.8 yards per carry, and 6 touchdowns. The utility man, also, has 15 receptions for 131 yards, and 8.7 yards per reception. While WKU's rushing defense ranks third in the league, they have allowed back-to-back games of 150+ yards rushing and 5.0+ yards per carry. If Boyd is able to find early success, he could open up the field for the young passing game with a lot of talent.

Advantage: Even

Offensive Line

Pass protection has not been friendly to Storey lately: a Catch-22 when your quarterback has mobile tendencies. Since the Charlotte game, Storey has been sacked 10 times (3.33 times per game). Last week, FAU's Keke Leroy (LB) was able to exploit Storey's blindside while a Hilltopper linemen was down, sacked Storey, forced the fumble, and Chris Tooley was able to scoop and score. That play, alone, arguably flipped momentum and the game.

The Razorbacks' line ranks #56 in line yards, #64 in standard downs line yards, #33 in passing downs yard lines, #45 in opportunity rate, #100 in power success rate, #70 in stuff rate, #28 in sack rate, and #32 in both standard and passing downs sack rate.

WKU's line ranks #118 in line yards, #87 in standard downs line yards, #128 in passing downs yard lines, #102 in opportunity rate, #11 in power success rate, #89 in stuff rate, #45 in sack rate, #56 in standard downs sack rate, and #46 in passing downs sack rate.

Arkansas is big up front and will pose a challenge to WKU's defense that has slipped a bit.

Advantage: Arkansas

Secondary

WKU's secondary is [statistically] led by Devon Key, Antwon Kincade, Ta'Corian Darden, and Trae Meadows. The four have combined for 185 total tackles, 10 TFLs, 2-of-6 INTs, 17 pass breakups, and 1 fumble recovery. Last week, FAU's 24-yard field goal attempt was blocked by Meadows while Key recovered and ran it for 39 yards. That turnover primed WKU to score, unfortunately, Storey threw a pick into triple coverage. The passing defense has allowed a completion rate of 55.7%, 7.6 yards per pass attempt, and 192.0 passing yards per game. However, throughout the past two games, WKU has allowed an average completion rate of 62.5%, 7.6 yards per pass attempt, and 244.5 passing yards per game.

Arkansas' Joe Foucha, Kamren Curl, Montaric Brown, and Jarques McClellion have combined for 180 total tackles, 3.5 TFLs, 2.0 sacks, 5-of-5 INTs, 12 pass breakups, 1 forced fumble, and 3 fumble recoveries. The passing defense has allowed a completion rate of 65.0%, 7.9 yards per pass attempt, and 222.2 passing yards per game. In last week's loss to Mississppi State, the Razorbacks allowed the Bulldogs to go 13-of-19 (68.4%) for 180 yards, 9.5 yards per pass attempt, and 2 touchdowns. The Bulldogs did not have to utilize the passing game as the ground attack demolished Arkansas' rushing defense. Looking at non-conference FBS matchups closer to that of WKU - Colorado State and San Jose State - Arkansas' passing defense allowed a 58.4% completion rate, 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 303.5 passing yards per game, 4 touchdowns, and 1 INT. 3 of the defense's 5 interceptions came during the first game against Portland State.

Advantage: WKU

Linebackers

For some time, WKU's linebacking corps was fairly quiet aside from Kyle Bailey. While Bailey continues to lead linebackers, Clay Davis has emerged the past couple of weeks. Bailey has 70 total tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 2 INT, and 6 quarterback hurries. Since the Marshall game, Davis has 16 total tackles and 0.5 TFLs. However, Hilltopper linebackers still need to improve in the areas of big plays and forcing turnovers.

Both De'Jon "Scoota" Harris and Bumper Pool lead the Razorback linebacking corps. Harris has 75 total tackles, 3.5 TFLs, 2 quarterback hurries, 1 forced fumble, and 2 fumble recoveries. Pool is responsible for 67 total tackles, 5.0 TFLs, 0.5 sacks, and 1 quarterback hurry; however, he is coming off one of his worst performances.

Marshall and FAU's pass rush, specifically linebackers, had big performances against WKU: forcing the Hilltoppers into critical and costly mistakes. Harris and Pool could have a productive day.

Advantage: Arkansas

Defensive Line

Defensive end DeAngelo Malone leads the line and defense with 71 total tackles, 17.0 TFLs, 9.0 sacks, and 13 quarterback hurries. He leads the league in, both, TFLs and sacks, and is second nationally in TFLs. In last week's loss to FAU, Malone had 9 total tackles, 1.0 TFL, and 3 quarterback hurries. Given Arkansas' inconsistency at quarterback, Malone could be making tackles all over the field. His counterpart - Juwuan Jones - has 42 total tackles, 8.0 TFLs, 4.5 sacks, and 7 quarterback hurries. Last week, Jones registered 4 total tackles, 1.0 TFL, and 1 sack. Defensive tackles have been pretty sound, as well. Jalen Madden has stepped up since Jeremy Darvin's injury. Madden had 4 total tackles and 0.5 TFL last week.

Arkansas' line is led by tackle McTelvin Agim who has 34 total tackles, 8.5 TFLs, 5.0 sacks, 3 quarterback hurries, 1 forced fumble, and 1 fumble recovery. Injuries have plagued an already thin line. Defensive ends have struggled this season.

WKU will likely load the box, pressure Jones, stop Boyd, and force Jones to beat them through the air.

Advantage: WKU

Special Teams

After missing a field goal and extra point at Marshall, WKU placekicker Cory Munson went 1-of-1 on field goals and 3-of-3 on extra points against FAU. On the season, Munson is 12-of-19 on field goals and 23-of-24 on extra points. Punter John Haggerty leads the league with 46.2 yards per punt and has 10 punts inside of the 20 yard line. Punt returner Roger Cray has returned 3 punts for an average of 8.33 yards per return. The kick return game has seen Garland LaFrance, Jacquez Sloan, and Dayton Wade with impressive returns. Combined, they average 20.36 yards per return.

Arkansas placekicker Connor Limpert is 12-of-15 on field goals and 24-of-24 on extra points. Punter Sam Loy averages 39.6 yards per punt with 13 inside of the 20 yard line. Treylon Burks has been the team's sole punt returner: averaging 10.2 yards per return. Kick returner De'Vion Warren averages 20.4 yards per return.

Advantage: Arkansas

It would be presumptuous to dismiss Arkansas due to their 2-7 record. There has to be some account for their schedule. With that being said, it has not been a pretty season for the Razorbacks, which includes a too close for comfort 20-13 win over Portland State (FCS). Meanwhile, the Hilltoppers' offense has come together under the likes of Storey, Jackson, Walker, Pearson, etc.; however, uncharacteristic mistakes have been costly as of late. The Topper defense, although still good and one of the best in the Group of Five, has been leaving too many guys open and has looked a bit gassed at some points. Unless Jones breathes new life into a nearly non-existent offense, I see this as a close game that could go either way. It is Arkansas' Senior Day, so that could provide and intangible boost.

Arkansas is playing for pride while WKU is playing for bowl eligibility.

Prediction

WKU 20, Arkansas 23