Day: Saturday, October 12

Time: 6:00 PM CST

Location: Houchens Industries–L. T. Smith Stadium

Network: Stadium

Betting line: Army -5 | O/U: 42.5

History: The Hilltoppers lead the series 2-0. The two teams last met in 2014, when WKU defeated Army 52-24 at home.

Comparing Ty Storey and Kelvin Hopkins Jr. is made difficult by the fact that Army runs a flexbone triple option offense. Simply put, the quarterback does not pass often enough for one to truly evaluate his [passing] talent. However, in a 42-33 loss to Tulane, Hopkins attempted 4X as many passes as his average going into the game. Against the Green Wave, Army ditched its traditional ground game for a balanced attack. Until that game, Army stuck to its usual offense and held a 3-1 record: nearly upsetting Michigan in double overtime. [Last week] Hopkins went 9-of-24 (37.5%) for 170 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception.

In last week's win over Old Dominion, Ty Storey went 21-of-28 (75.0%) for 193 yards, 6.9 yards per pass, and threw for 1 touchdown and 1 interception. After starting two games, Storey has established himself as more than a consistent game manager. He has been able to execute whatever is asked of him whether through the air or on the ground as well as put up numbers.

In the Hilltoppers' favor, Army's secondary tends to show a bit of vulnerability against the pass.

Advantage: WKU

Receivers

Again, given Army's traditional offense, it is difficult to compare WKU's and Army's receivers.

Artice Hobbs IV and Camden Harrison lead the Black Knights as the only receivers with 100+ receiving yards. Hobbs has 142 yards, 4 receptions, 35.5 yards per reception, and 1 touchdown. Hobbs - when he does have the ball - is a threat. Harrison is responsible for 115 yards, 6 receptions, 19.2 yards per reception, and 1 touchdown. Against Tulane, Harrison picked up 90.0% of his season total receiving yards. Running backs Kell Walker and Brandon Walters have also been options.

Five Hilltoppers have at least 100+ receiving yards while two - Jahcour Pearson and Lucky Jackson - have over 200 receiving yards. Pearson leads WKU with 28 receptions, 291 yards, 10.4 yards per reception, and 3 touchdowns. Pearson - along with Jacquez Sloan - can be elusive and speedy. Tight end Josh Simon has been a big play threat while [TE] Kyle Fourtenbary has been reliable at securing the ball and getting the first down. Anyone - Pearson, Jackson, Sloan, Simon, etc. - with explosiveness and efficiency on their side will be heavily utilized to quickly attack and build the lead.

Army will likely control the clock given the offense they run. It is imperative that WKU's passing attack make the most of every possession.

Advantage: WKU

Running Backs

...aka Army's bread and butter.

On the season, the Black Knights have totaled 1,367 rushing yards (273.4 yards per game) and 17 touchdowns. They are led by halfback Connor Slomka and [QB] Kelvin Hopkins Jr. Slomka is responsible for 308 yards off of 74 carries, 4.2 yards per carry, and 3 touchdowns. Hopkins has 253 yards off of 63 carries, 4.0 yards per carry, and 5 touchdowns.

Army is extremely efficient on the ground with a success rate of 54.48%. Not only are they running the ball an average of 57.0 times per game, but they are successfully picking up the necessary yardage per down.

WKU's Gaej Walker is coming off of his third 100+ yard game this season. Against Old Dominion, Walker posted 114 yards off of 25 carries, 4.6 yards per carry, and 1 touchdown. Walker remains the cemented go-to guy out of the backfield.

On paper, WKU is statistically the best rushing defense the Black Knights will have faced, thus far: allowing 549 rushing yards off of 195 carries, 109.8 yards per game, 4 touchdowns, and forcing 4 fumbles. However, that rushing defense also struggled against the run-heavy Louisville Cardinals. Army has rushed no less than 193 yards in a game, thus far.

Advantage: Army

Offensive Line

You cannot be #8 nationally in rushing yards per game (273.4) and not have a strong front. This is evident by Army's o-line statistics. The Black Knights rank #30 in line yards, #18 in standard downs line yards, #34 in opportunity rate, #32 in power success rate, and #16 in stuff rate. However, during the rare plays in which Army opts to pass, the o-line [statistically] has not looked as stout in pass blocking (given the offensive scheme, they do not have to be great at it either).

The Hilltoppers' o-line is opposite that of Army: good at pass blocking (sack rate, standard downs sack rate, passing downs sack rate) and [statistically] below the national average in line yards, standard downs line yards opportunity rate, etc. On the season, they have only allowed 5 sacks.

In order to successfully run the triple option, you have to be good at the triple option. It all starts up front. Army's line is inherently going to be in possession of the advantage. There is built in room for error due to the QB's ability to read the defense and make adjustments with the option. This is not to say that Army is better or more talented than WKU's line, but the nature of the triple option lends itself to an innate edge.

Advantage: Army

Secondary

WKU's secondary has looked significantly improved during the last two games with 51 total tackles, 10 pass breakups, and 2 (of 5) interceptions. Now, the Hilltoppers' passing defense is one of the best in the league. However, Army will probably not pass the ball enough for WKU's secondary to accumulate any picks or pass deflections. The only situation in which Army chooses to pass more than their average is observable during the Tulane game: when they need to catch up. Just as WKU's offense will have to make the most of every possession, the Hilltoppers' secondary will have to make the most of any rarity in which Hopkins passes the ball. The secondary will be watching what the center and guards do, then decide whether to attack the middle of the field or play the pitch. They will more than likely run a lot of Cover 1 and bring an additional safety up to help defend against run.

Heading into tomorrow's matchup, Army's passing defense has allowed 186.8 passing yards per game. The allowed 62 passing yards during the Rice game seems to be a bit of an outlier as the Owls only passed for 14 times; opponents since then have averaged 28.5 attempts per game and 218.0 yards per game. Army had 1 interception against UTSA and 3 against Morgan State (FCS).

Advantage: Even

Linebackers

Kyle Bailey leads the linebacking corps with 42 total tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 2 interceptions, and 2 quarterback hurries. Eastern Kentucky transfer Damon Lowe totaled 9 tackles and 1 pass breakup against Old Dominion. During the third quarter, Lowe was ejected for targeting a Monarch receiver. Coach Helton appealed the suspension: arguing that Lowe did not meet 2/3 requirements to meet a targeting penalty. That appeal was denied, so Lowe must sit out the first half against Army.

Cole Christiansen and Arik Smith lead the Black Knights' linebacking corps with a combined 79 total tackles, 3.0 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, 2 quarterback hurries, 3 forced fumbles, and 1 fumble recovery. Normally, Army's pass rush has looked decent; however, against Tulane, they were unable to keep consistent pressure on the quarterback.

WKU's linebackers will face a unique - albeit difficult - opportunity. They will have to react from what they see (navigate through extra bodies, jam the middle, look for a gap and swarm the ball...). Bailey has stepped-up into his new position seamlessly, but Malik Staples, Jaden Hunter, and Clay Davis will have to do more.

Advantage: Army

Defensive Line

If there were a C-USA Defensive Player of the Year equivalent for the mid-season, WKU defensive end DeAngelo Malone would earn it outright. He's easily the front-runner for the post-season award. Malone leads the defense with 46 total tackles, 13.0 tackles for loss, 7.0 sacks, and 6 quarterback hurries. His counterpart - Juwuan Jones - has 21 total tackles, 5.0 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, and 3 quarterback hurries. And while the end position is difficult against the option, there are no two better, more productive guys than Malone and Jones. They will have their hands full and will have to slow play it. Defensive tackles Jeremy Darvin and Jaylon George have 34 total tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, 3 quarterback hurries, and 1 forced fumble. They have good size to clog up the middle.

Army's defensive front is led by tackles Kwanbena Bonsu and Jacob Covington who have combined for 36 total tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 quarterback hurry, and 3 fumble recoveries. Defensive ends Edriece Patterson and Jake Ellington have not been very productive, with 7 total tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, and 1.5 sacks.

Advantage: WKU

Special Teams

Army has used 3 different placekickers who are 19-of-19 on extra points and 2-of-3 on field goal attempts. Punter Zach Potter averages 42.42 yards per punt with 5 inside of the 20 yard line.

WKU placekicker Cory Munson is 13-of-13 on extra points and 6-of-9 on field goals. Punter John Haggerty averages 45.0 yards per punt with 7 inside of the 20 yard line. Kick return man Garland LaFrance is averaging 19.77 yards per kick return off of 13 returns. The Hilltoppers put in Dayton Wade at punt return last week. He returned 1 punt for 7 yards.

Advantage: WKU

Army's triple option will be unlike anything WKU's current roster has ever faced. The Hilltopper offense will have to make the most of every possession and strike early [and often]. Do not be surprised if the Tops come out aggressive, attempting some deep passes, on the first play and/or drive. The defense will have to play smart and disciplined. Explosive runs from Army are inevitable; however, the defense will aim to limit that number.

The Black Knights' matchup with Tulane was the perfect storm as the Green Wave was able to strike early, play explosive, and Army's defense made many mistakes. If WKU gets an early lead, it will take Army out of their comfort zone. If Army gets an early lead, they can control the ball and the clock.

Coin flip: WKU 24, Army 21

1st Half: 14 - 7

2nd Half: 10 - 14