Day: Saturday, October 30

Time: 3:00PM CST

Location: Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

Network: ESPN+

Betting line: WKU -17.5 | O/U: 73

History: This will be the fourth meeting between WKU and Charlotte. The Hilltoppers' lead the series matchup 3-1. In 2020, WKU defeated FIU by a score of 37-19.

Quarterbacks

Through seven games, WKU's Bailey Zappe has completed 246-of-346 pass attempts (71.1%) for 3,014 yards, 430.6 yards per game, 8.7 yards per pass attempt, and 29 touchdowns as well as and 4 interceptions. He ranks #2 in total passing yards, #1 in passing yards per game, tied at #6 in completion percentage, tied for #1 in passing touchdowns, and has the ninth-best passer rating in the nation. In Conference USA, Zappe sweeps the league's passing statistical categories. He consistently asserts one of the best EPAs, EPA per Play, and EPA per pass among passers with at least 300 pass attempts. And, for three consecutive weeks, Zappe ranks #1 in PFF's Highest passing grades on deep pass attempts (98.6).

Against FIU , Zappe completed 39-of-49 pass attempts (79.6%) for 382 yards, 7.8 yards per pass attempt, and 3 touchdowns.

Through resolute and competent play, Zappe has not had a single misstep: stifling defenses and priming the offense to score at his will.

WKU's passing game has a success rate of 51.6%, PPA of 0.497, and explosiveness of 1.6.

Chris Reynolds leads the 49ers having completed 128-of-193 pass attempts (66.3%) for 1,533 yards, 219.0 yards per game, 7.9 yards per pass attempt, and 16 touchdowns as well as 5 interceptions. The dual-threat quarterback also adds an element of mobility with 61 carries, 207 yards, 3.4 yards per carry, and 3 touchdowns; his legs make him an elusive threat to any defense. In Charlotte's 38-9 loss to FAU, Reynolds went 22-of-31 (71.0%) for 219 yards, 7.1 yards per pass attempt, threw for 1 touchdown and 2 picks as well as had 9 carries for 8 yards. Charlotte's passing game has a success rate of 44.9%, PPA of 0.36, and explosiveness of 1.5.

Reynolds is a steady, productive force, but he takes on a lot of the burden. If WKU's pass rush steps up as they did against ODU and FIU, it could be a long night for the 49ers' offense.

Advantage: WKU

Receivers

WKU's receiver corps is led by Jerreth Sterns who ranks #1 nationally in total yards (1,077.0), #1 in receiving yards per game (153.9), tied at #1 in receiving touchdowns (10), #1 in total receptions (83), #1 in receptions per game (11.9), and #7 in PFF's Grade for Pass Routes of 20+ Yards. Last week, Sterns totaled 14 receptions for 115 yards, 8.2 yards per reception, and 2 touchdowns.

But the strength of the receiving corps does not rest on Sterns' shoulders, alone. The entire unit has insurmountable depth and explosiveness. Even with a couple of drops against FIU, they were still overwhelmingly imposing and resilient.

Mitchell Tinsley has 34 receptions for 539 yards, 15.9 yards per reception, and 4 touchdowns. Malachi Corley has 43 receptions for 411 yards, 9.6 yards per reception, and 4 touchdowns. Daewood Davis and Craig Burt Jr. combine for 29 receptions, 500 yards, 17.24 yards per reception, and 4 touchdowns. On the season, the receiving corps averages 12.4 yards per reception, 9 receivers have at least 1 touchdown, and ranks #29 in PFF's Grade for Pass Routes.

Charlotte's receiver corps is led by wideouts Victor Tucker and Grant DuBose. Tucker leads with 37 receptions, 537 yards, 14.5 yards per reception, and 2 touchdowns. Against FAU, Tucker had 6 receptions for 105 yards and 17.5 yards per reception. DuBose accounts for 34 receptions, 536 yards, 15.8 yards per reception, and 5 touchdowns. Tucker ranks #37 in PFF's Grade for Pass Routes of 20+ Yards while the unit ranks #23 in PFF's Grade for Pass Routes. Comparatively, the 49ers may not have the passing attack nor depth at receiver like that of WKU, but Tucker and DuBose are standout, proven players who are apt to big plays and chunk yardage.

Advantage: WKU

Running Backs

Eyes have mostly been on the Hilltoppers' potent passing attack, however, running backs Adam Cofield, Kye Robichaux, Noah Whittington, and Jakairi Moses have become a reliable and efficient group: consistently picking up the necessary yardage and maintaining an impressive success rate. The ground attack now has three consecutive 100+ yard games and four on the season. Last week, Cofield, Robichaux, and Moses combined for 25 carries, 148 yards, 5.92 yards per carry, and 1 touchdown. In total, the ground attack has 179 carries for 746 net yards (106.6 yards per game), 4.2 yards per carry, and 5 rushing touchdowns. Midway through the season, they boast a 55.8% success rate, PPA of 0.11, and explosiveness of 0.61.

For Charlotte, the surprise of the season has undoubtedly been what they've accomplished on the ground. Despite a lack of depth and experience heading into the season, Charlotte's ground attack has 262 carries for 1,126 yards (160.9 yards per game), 4.3 yards per carry, and 8 touchdowns. They now have five 100+ yard games and two 200+ yard games. Charlotte's ground game has a success rate of 41.4%, PPA of 0.13, and explosiveness of 1.07.

Obviously, they are an impressive group, but two of the three team's losses were when the opponent was able to contain the 49ers' ground attack and hold them to under 100 yards/3.0 yards per carry. Calvin Camp and Shadrick Byrd are the primary one, two guys combining for 148 carries, 708 net yards (101.1 yards per game), 4.8 yards per carry, and 4 touchdowns. Add on Reynold's mobility, and the ground attack is a likely challenge for most rushing defenses. Charlotte's ground game will have to step-up and take some pressure off of Reynolds, otherwise, WKU's pass rush may have a field day.

Advantage: Charlotte

Offensive Line

After their Game 7 performance, WKU's pass blocking moved up from the #2 position to #1 in PFF's Grade for Pass Blocking with an 87.8. WKU's success in the passing game has been a direct reflection of this strong, unwavering unit. They also rank #63 in PFF's Grade for Run Blocking with a 66.3. WKU's o-line has allowed 10 sacks as well as a stuff rate of 13.3%.

Charlotte's pass blocking ranks #101 with a PFF Grade of 50.7 while run blocking ranks #106 with a grade of 57.9. The 49ers' o-line has allowed 13 sacks (which is in part a reflection of Reynolds mobile propensity) as well as a stuff rate of 19.6%.

Advantage: WKU

Secondary

WKU's secondary has allowed 157-of-252 pass attempts (62.3%) for 1,933 yards (276.1 yards per game), 7.67 yards per pass attempt, and 11 passing touchdowns (1.6 passing touchdowns per game). During the FIU game, the Tops recorded 9 pass breakups - the most of the season - with 3 coming from DBs.

Antwon Kincade, A.J. Brathwaite Jr., Kahlef Hailassie, Miguel Edwards, Kaleb Oliver, Beanie Bishop, and Omari Alexander combine for 196 total tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 1.0 sack, 3-of-4 interceptions, 15 pass breakups, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 forced fumble. WKU moved up from #80 to #66 in coverage with a PFF Grade of 71.3. They allow a passing success rate of 45.0%, PPA of 0.33, and explosiveness of 1.4.

Through seven games, the 49ers have allowed 98-of-163 pass attempts (60.1%) for 1,565 yards (223.6 yards per game), and 16 touchdowns as well as recorded 2 interceptions. They also allow a 42.9% success rate, PPA of 0.4, and explosiveness of 1.88. Charlotte's opponents have averaged 23 pass attempts per game as well as 9.6 yards per pass attempt. Against WKU, they'll face an aerial assault that averages 49.7 pass attempts per game as well as 8.82 yards per pass attempt. The exponential 116.1% increase in pass attempts coupled with the Tops' consistent success through the air will inevitably put pressure on a 49ers' secondary at a rate they haven't been exposed.

Jon Alexander, Solomon Rogers, Trey Creamer, Geo Howard, and Lance McMillan combine for 107 total tackles, 3.0 tackles for loss, 9 pass breakups, 1 quarterback hurry, and 1 forced fumble. Alexander is responsible for the 49ers' two interceptions on the season. Charlotte ranks #109 in coverage with a PFF Grade of 55.0. Howard is listed as questionable (ankle) heading into the matchup.

Like last week, WKU's secondary has a statistical advantage but cannot afford to give up big plays to a more cohesive offense than that of FIU.

Advantage: WKU

Linebackers

Against FIU, WKU linebacker Will Ignont had 3 total tackles and 2 pass breakups and Demetrius Cain had 1 tackle for 1.0 tackle for loss/1.0 sack. This season, Ignont and Cain have totaled 66 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, 1 interception, 4 pass breakups, 1 quarterback hurry, and 1 fumble recovery. Given Reynolds' passing ability and his tendency to scramble, along with the fact that Charlotte runs at a rate of 55.3%, WKU's linebackers will need to be prepared for just about anything.

Charlotte's linebacker corps is led by Tyler Murray, Luke Martin, and Justin Whisenhunt. The three combine for 111 tackles, 9.0 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 7 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 3 forced fumbles. They'll have a tall task of getting past WKU's #1 pass blocking unit. But even if they get past that level, Zappe has probably already gotten rid of the ball. Committing to run support will be a challenge as well with WKU's productive running backs and an o-line with a low stuff rate.

Advantage: Charlotte

Defensive Line

After a shaky start to the season, WKU's rushing defense has gone back-to-back weeks holding opponents to under 120 rushing yards per game. Prior to the Old Dominion matchup, WKU was allowing 211.6 rushing yards per game; however, strong stands against ODU and FIU have moved that average down to 172.1. On the season, they've allowed 17 total touchdowns and 4.2 yards per carry. During the past two games, they've allowed 4 total touchdowns and 2.2 yards per carry.

In addition to improvement against the run, they've continued to put consistent pressure on the quarterback (and have even dialed it up as of late). After their season-best performance against ODU, they hit 'copy + paste' against FIU; the defensive line, specifically, was responsible for 18 tackles, 5.0 tackles for loss, 5.0 sacks, 3 pass breakups, and 3 quarterback hurries.

On the season, the d-line has totaled 209 tackles, 21.5 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks, 9 pass breakups, 14 quarterback hurries, 2 fumble recoveries, and 4 forced fumbles. The Hilltoppers' rushing defense ranks #97 with a PFF Grade of 59.1 and the pass rush ranks #83 with a PFF Grade of 71.2. They allow a rushing success rate of 53.0%, PPA of 0.326, and explosiveness of 0.88. Defensive end DeAngelo Malone leads the line and defense with 53 total tackles, 9.0 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 4 quarterback hurries, and 2 forced fumbles.

Charlotte has been prone to a porous rushing defense which has allowed 221.1 yards per game, 5.6 yards per carry, and 9 touchdowns. The 49ers' rushing defense ranks #125 with a PFF Grade of 43.6 and the pass rush ranks #118 with a PFF Grade of 64.5. So far they've allowed a rushing success rate of 46.0%, PPA of 0.28, and explosiveness of 1.2. The d-line has totaled 99 total tackles, 19.5 tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks, 3 pass breakups, 13 quarterback hurries, 3 fumble recoveries, and 3 forced fumbles. Markees Watts leads the line with 43 total tackles, 6.0 tackles for loss, 5.0 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 3 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 forced fumble. Same as the linebacker corps, the d-line will focus on pressuring Zappe but cannot sleep on the Tops' sneaky, productive ground attack.

Advantage: WKU

Special Teams

Punter John Haggerty has punted 15 times for 798 yards, 53.2 yards per punt, and has 5 punts land inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Brayden Narveson is 12-of-14 on field goals and 31-of-32 on extra point kicks. Jerreth Sterns and DeAngelo Wilson combine for 13 punt returns, 154 return yards, and 11.85 yards per return. Beanie Bishop, Joey Beljan, and Jakairi Moses total 16 kickoff returns for 358 yards and 22.38 yards per return.

Charlotte's Bailey Rice has punted 30 times for 1,242 yards, 41.4 yards per punt, and has 9 punts inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Jonathan Cruz is 4-of-7 on field goals and is 24-of-25 on extra point kicks. Geo Howard, Victor Tucker, and Cameron Dollar combine for 5 punt returns, 23 yards, and 4.6 yards per return. Shadrick Byrd, Calvin Camp, and Keith Pearson combine for 19 kickoff returns for 493 yards and 25.95 yards per return.

Advantage: WKU

The 49ers are off to their best start in FBS tenure. Even so, they are coming off of a rough 38-9 home loss to FAU. Charlotte has a well-rounded offense and averages a 33:00 time of possession (#9 in country), but the defense has let a lot get by them.

Meanwhile, WKU is looking to carry momentum from back-to-back wins against conference opponents. During both games, the offense continued to flex their prowess while the defense improved their play and stepped up tremendously when the offense was off to a slow start.

WKU appears to be clicking in all three phases, but don't count out the competitive 49ers. Statistically, they are more sound than ODU and FIU.

WKU - 40

Charlotte - 24

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