Analyzing the Enemy: FAU Owls (11/7/20)

Day: Saturday, November 7

Game Time: 5:00PM CST

Location: FAU Stadium

Network: Fox Sports/Stadium

Series Record: FAU leads the series 11-3. The last time the Tops defeated the Owls was in 2016. Of note, WKU alumnus and ex-WKU head coach Willie Taggart is the head coach of FAU.

Betting Line: FAU -6.5 | O/U: 39.5

Quarterbacks

On Monday, WKU head coach Tyson Helton announced that Tyrrell Pigrome ("Piggy") would start against FAU. Against BYU, Piggy went 19-30 (63.3%) for 106 passing yards, 3.5 yards per pass attempt, and 1 passing touchdown. Freshman Darius Ocean went 0-1. Although Piggy has yet to throw an interception, his season has been overshadowed by the same, monotonous performance each game.

The Owls are led by quarterback Nick Tronti. Through three games, the redshirt junior has gone 40-71 (56.3%) for 382 passing yards, 5.4 yards per pass attempt, 3 passing touchdowns, and thrown for 1 interception. He also has 35 carries for 81 yards, 2.3 yards per carry, and 2 rushing touchdowns.

Ironically, neither team has a quarterback that can throw well.

Advantage: Even

Receivers

WKU's receiving corps is led by wide receivers Mitchell Tinsley, Xavier Lane, Dayton Wade, and Craig Burt Jr. as well as tight end Joshua Simon. They combine for 97 receptions, 907 yards, 9.4 yards per catch, and 9 touchdowns. They've mostly looked decent despite inconsistent quarterback play. According to PFF, Dayton Wade is tied for third in the nation for most targets without a dropped pass.

The Owls are led by receivers TJ Chase, Aaron Young, and Jordan Merrell. They have combined for 19 receptions, 242 yards, 12.7 yards per catch, and 2 touchdowns. Having only played three games and a total of 40 receptions, there isn't much to talk about statistically. They are a revamped group and only Aaron Young has substantial numbers from 2019 (29 receptions, 367 yards, 12.7 yards per catch, and 3 touchdowns).

Advantage: WKU

Running Backs

Considering quarterback play, this game will be about the ground game.

WKU's ground attack has been questionable all season but seems to be improving. Through the first four games, Gaej Walker had 28 carries for 73 yards and 2.6 yards per carry (as well as 1 touchdown). From the UAB game onward, Walker has 43 carries for 201 yards and 4.7 yards per carry. Jakairi Moses - recently named on the 2020 Mayo Clinic Comeback Player of the Year Watch List - has 31 carries for 183 yards and 5.9 yards per carry. Against BYU, C.J. Jones had 3 carries for 23 yards and 7.7 yards per carry. Allowing the duo of Walker and Moses to be a one-two punch is imperative to opening up the offense.

One of FAU's early offensive strengths lies within their ground game. Led by Malcolm Davidson and James Charles, the two combine for 49 carries, 296 rushing yards, 6.0 yards per carry, and 2 touchdowns. As a unit, the Owls have 120 carries for 499 rushing yards, 4.2 yards per carry, and 4 touchdowns. They are a ground-and-pound team that rushes 63.0% of all plays. Charles tends to run up the middle (64.3% of carries) while Davidson tends to run up the middle (23.0% of carries) and right end (27.0% of carries).

Considering the Tops' rushing defense and their struggles...

Advantage: FAU

Offensive Line

Overall, WKU's offensive line looked more themselves last week. Comparatively, the BYU game was their third-highest overall offensive grade, their lowest pass blocking grade, but their highest run blocking grade of the season. While the ground game improves, it is difficult to protect a quarterback that is apt to scramble and leave the pocket. They've allowed 2.29 sacks per game. It should also be of note that WKU converted on 6-of-13 (46.2%) third downs against BYU compared to their 26.6% conversion rate going into that game.

FAU's offensive line has allowed 7 sacks through three games (2.33 per game); however, 5-of-7 sacks came from one game, alone (Marshall). They've, obviously, got an established ground game.

Advantage: Even

Secondary

Last week, WKU allowed Zach Wilson to go 18-32 (56.3%) for 224 yards, 7.0 yards per pass attempt, and 3 touchdowns. In addition, corner Dionte Ruffin recorded his first career interception (and returned for 28 yards) which broke Wilson's all-time program-record streak of 184 consecutive passes without a pick. The secondary wasn't amazing, but they did play better than expected...against a Heisman hopeful, no less. But FAU is not BYU. They will not be throwing downfield a lot. Instead, they'll rely on short screen passes and jet sweeps. WKU has allowed 116-of-201 pass attempts (57.7%) for 1,330 yards, 6.62 yards per pass attempt, 190.0 yards per game, and 8 total touchdowns.

FAU's secondary is led by Zyon Gilbert, Jordan Helm, Teja Young, Romain Mungin, and Armani-Eli Adams. They have combined for 63 total tackles, 2.0 tackles for loss, 2 interceptions, 5 pass breakups, and 1 quarterback hurry. FAU has allowed 56-of-98 pass attempts (57.14%) for 691 yards, 7.05 yards per pass attempt, 230.3 yards per game and 3 total touchdowns.

Advantage: WKU

Linebackers

Last week, Eli Brown and Kyle Bailey accounted for 12 total tackles, 2 quarterback hurries, and 1 pass deflection. While teams continue to double team and make defensive end DeAngelo Malone ineffective, Brown and Bailey have to continue to step up.

FAU utilizes a 3-4 scheme and its linebackers are stout. Chase Lasater, Ahman Ross, Caliph Brice, Leighton McCarthy, and Chris Jones have totaled 93 tackles (31 per game), 13.0 tackles for loss, 8.0 sacks, 1.0 pass breakup, 7 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 forced fumble. This unit, in addition to defensive end Jaylen Joyner, give the Owls an unquestionable edge.

Advantage: FAU

Defensive Line

Week in and week out, the question is: "What happened to WKU's defensive line?" Last week, alone, the presumed NFL-talent DeAngelo Malone only had 1 tackle (as did DE Juwuan Jones). Overall, the rushing defense has not given up quite as much as they did in earlier games. Now, they have allowed 1,300 yards from 278 carries, 4.7 yards per carry, 185.7 yards per game, and 16 touchdowns. It seems like a tall task for the rushing defense to stop FAU's ground-and-pound and for the pass rush to make an emergence.

FAU defensive end Jaylen Joyner leads the front with 14 total tackles, 5.0 tackles for loss, 5.0 sacks, and 2 quarterback hurries. The rushing defense has allowed 320 yards from 108 carries, 3.0 yards per carry, 106.7 yards per game, and 1 touchdown. Not super good news for a WKU running game that is just finding itself.

Advantage: FAU

Special Teams

WKU's John Haggerty has averaged 44.25 yards per punt with 10 punts inside of the 20. Kicker Brayden Narveson has gone 6-of-6 on FG attempts and 14-of-14 on extra point kicks. The kick return game has averaged 14.65 yards on 20 kick returns. The punt return game has totaled 6 punt returns for an average of 4.17 yards per return.

FAU's Matt Hayball has averaged 44.56 yards per punt with 6 punts inside of the 20. Kicker Vladimir Rivas has gone 2-of-3 on FG attempts and 6-of-7 on extra point attempts. The kick return game has averaged 20.75 yards on 4 kick returns. The punt return game has totaled 7 punt returns for an average of 8.86 yards per return.

Advantage: Even

To this point, and due to COVID, Willie Taggart and his Owls have only played three games this season. Meanwhile, WKU will be playing their eighth game. It is tough to fairly evaluate a team that has played so few games (as well as predict the outcome). Thus far, it has been a low-scoring affair for both, so the spread and over/under make sense. Taggart's Owls have not been exactly been offensive juggernauts and the Hilltoppers have been unable to establish anything.

Could WKU win this game? Yes. But FAU has the parts to exploit two of WKU's biggest weaknesses: 1) a pass rush that can disrupt an already inconsistent and non-explosive quarterback and 2) a ground game that can get past a struggling rushing defense.