Day: Saturday, September 17

Time: 11:00PM CST

Location: Memorial Stadium

Network: Big Ten Network

Betting line: Indiana -6.5 | O/U: 61.5

History: Indiana leads the series matchup 4-0. In their two most recent meetings, the Tops have lost to the Hoosiers by a combined 5 points.

Quarterbacks

After a strong starting debut, WKU quarterback Austin Reed backed up his Game 1 performance with another solid outing. Against Hawai'i, Reed went 22-of-31 (71.0%) for 271 yards, 8.7 yards per pass attempt, and had 3 touchdowns as well as 1 interception. What raised some brows was, perhaps, Reed's mobility and ability to make plays on the ground: posting 9 carries for 43 yards, 4.8 yards per carry, and 1 rushing touchdown.

Like WKU, Indiana is with a new starting quarterback in 2022. Missouri transfer Connor Bazelak has taken the reins and is 44-of-81 (54.3%) for 527 yards, 6.5 yards per pass attempt, and has 3 touchdowns as well as 2 interceptions.

Both Reed and Bazelak have a deep throw touch with the type receivers needed to capitalize on such plays. Reed is 8-of-17 for 237 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception when throwing deep 20+ yards. Bazelak is 5-of-11 for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Reed does, however, separate himself in accuracy and advanced metrics: leading Bazelak in EPA/pass, passing success rate, total EPA, explosive play rate, and EPA lost from turnovers and sacks.

Advantage: WKU

Running Backs

Excluding Reed's contributions to the ground attack, WKU had 20 carries for 98 yards, 4.9 yards per carry, and 2 rushing touchdowns against Hawai'i. Kye Robichaux led with 7 carries for 49 yards and 1 touchdown, while Davion Ervin-Poindexter - an Indiana transfer - had 9 carries for 42 yards and 1 touchdown.

Indiana's backfield will be the best WKU has faced, thus far. Leading the way is Auburn transfer Shaun Shivers. In Game 1 against Illinois, he took a hit that knocked the wind out of him. He bounced back, though, and scored the game-winning touchdown. In Game 2, he racked up 20 carries for 155 yards, 7.0 yards per carry, and 1 rushing touchdown.

Through the two games, Indiana is rushing an average 31 times for 135.5 yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry. With a 44.3% success rate, the Hoosiers have been able to efficiently pick up the necessary yardage and sustain drives.

Advantage: Indiana

Receivers

Tight ends Josh Simon and Joey Beljan may have been quiet against Austin Peay, but they weren't against Hawai'i. Reed connected with Simon on a 47-yard touchdown pass in which Simon drug several defenders with him. Beljan added a solid 19-yard grab. Wide receiver Malachi Corley saw more handoffs and jet sweeps than he did during his dominant Game 1 while Daewood Davis, Dalvin Smith, and Jaylen Hall combined for 10 receptions for 139 yards and 2 touchdowns. If Reed can connect with one of his many talented receivers early on, then the passing attack can truly overwhelm defenses.

Indiana receiver Cam Camper was a JuCo add who has made an immediate impact and asserted himself as Bazelak's top target. Camper has been targeted 28 times with 15 receptions and 199 yards. D.J. Matthews - back from a 2021 injury - has 10 receptions for 160 yards and 2 touchdowns. Idaho was a bit of a sluggish game, but in Game 1, both Camper and Matthews had 100+ yards.

In terms of WKU vs. Indiana receivers, it is pretty even keel. However, the Tops' tight end play could be a factor that separates the two.

Advantage: WKU

Offensive Line

Heading into Week 3, WKU's offensive line leads the nation in pass blocking with a PFF grade of 88.4 and ranks #65 in run blocking with a 62.0. Through the first two games, they have not allowed a single sack. Right tackle Gunner Britton has the fifth-highest pass blocking grade with a 90.4. Obviously, against a Big Ten defense, WKU's line will have to remain steadfast.

Indiana has only allowed 1 sack, but they have also allowed 9.0 tackles for loss and 4 quarterback hurries. They rank #116 in pass blocking with a grade of 47.8 and rank #112 in run blocking with a grade of 51.5. Pass blocking did, however, dramatically improve against Idaho. Under favorable conditions, the offensive line should learn more about itself - for better or for worse - against WKU.

Advantage: WKU

Secondary

Momentum continued from Game 1 to Game 2 as the Tops came away with 4-of-5 interceptions against Hawai'i: Kaleb Oliver with 2, Upton Stout with 1, and B.J. Wagner with 1. On the day, the unit allowed 26-of-44 pass attempts (59.1%) for 266 yards, 6.0 yards per pass attempt, and 0 touchdowns. Kahlef Hailassie, Oliver, Dominique Bradshaw, Talique Allen, and Stout combine for 37 total tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, 4-of-7 interceptions, 3 pass breakups, and 1 quarterback hurry. The secondary can be some high-flying ball hawks, but they did allow 6 passes to go over 15 yards against the 'Bows. They had wiggle room to do so against Hawai'i's offensive woes, but they cannot afford the luxury against Bazelak, Camper, and Matthews.

Through the first two games, Indiana has allowed 34-of-59 pass attempts (57.6%) for 436 yards, 7.39 yards per pass attempt, and 5 touchdowns as well as 10 passes of 15+ yards. Their sole pick comes from Game 1 against Illinois, when Tommy DeVito's pass was intercepted by Josh Sanguinetti for no gain. The Hoosier secondary is experienced with several seniors and redshirt seniors, and they'll play just as aggressive (albeit, more talented) than Austin Peay.

Both secondaries are facing a deep ball threat and a solid group of receivers. The difference here might be Reed's moxie.

Advantage: Even

Linebackers

JaQues Evans and Will Ignont continue to lead the linebacking corps as well as the defense in terms of total tackles. Evans has 18 total tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, and 1 quarterback hurry. Ignont adds 14 total tackles and 0.5 sacks. Aaron Key and Matthew Flint have one fumble recovery, each. There's some unknowns with IU. Will Shivers be utilized as much as he has been? Will the passing game open up and play four full quarters?

Indiana's Cam Jones, Aaron Casey, Alfred Bryant, and Dasan McCullough make up four of the Hoosiers' top five tacklers. The four combine for 54 total tackles, 6.0 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 3 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 forced fumble. Cam Jones, himself, is a force. With Illinois at the Indiana two-yard line, the Fighting Illini were that close to an eight point lead. However, Jones kept Chase Brown out of the endzone. The subsequent failed fourth down conversion was the difference between 17-16 and 24-16. With a confident IU secondary, the linebackers will look to bully and blitz rather than drop back into pass coverage.

Advantage: Indiana

Defensive Line

Through two games, WKU's defensive line has totaled 25.0 total tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, 1 pick-six, and 7 quarterback hurries. Juwuan Jones leads the group with 10 total tackles, 1.0 tackle for loss, and was responsible for the pick six against Hawai'i. They've continued to see improvement against the run and have, now, allowed 84 carries for 251 yards, 125.5 yards per game, 3.0 yards per carry, and 3 rushing touchdowns. However, IU's ground game will be noticeably better and more effective than Austin Peay and Hawai'i. The Tops' will have to stop Shivers - utilized more than any other player on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd downs - and force the Hoosiers to pass.

Indiana has allowed 98 carries for 342 yards, 171.0 yards per game, 3.5 yards per carry, and 0 rushing touchdowns. The guys up front have totaled 25 total tackles, 3.0 tackles for loss, and 1.0 sack. JH Tevis leads with 8 total tackles and 2.0 tackles for loss. With most of the production and pressure by way of the linebackers...

Advantage: WKU

Special Teams

Punter Tom Ellard punted 9 times for 395 yards, 43.89 yards per punt, with 3 landing inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Brayden Narveson is 1-of-2 on field goal attempts and 12-of-12 on extra point kicks. Upton Stout has returned 3 punts for 19 yards (6.33 yards per return) and Michael Mathison has 1 kick return for 23 yards.

IU punter James Evans has punted 8 times for 342 yards, 42.75 yards per punt, and has 3 punts land inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Charles Campbell is 3-of-4 on field goal attempts and 5-of-5 on extra point kicks. Jaylin Lucas, Omar Cooper Jr., and D.J. Matthews Jr. combine for 3 kick returns for 72 yards and 24.0 yards per return.

Advantage: Even

WKU and Indiana may not be similar teams, schematically, but there are some situational parallels. Aside from being 2-0, both have faced quality FCS opponents. Since the Tops played Austin Peay, the Governors are on a 2-0 tear: outscoring their opponents 104-0. Meanwhile, Idaho kept it close to, both, Washington State and Indiana.

If history is any indication, this should be a close game, with neither granted time to shake off any cobwebs. Both will probably be each other's toughest matchup so far. But WKU has found more success in finishing drives while the defense ranks second nationally in turnovers, 19th in allowed pass play explosiveness, and 49th in allowed rush explosiveness, according to Action Network.

WKU - 31
Indiana - 28

****

Talk about it on RED TOWEL TALK.

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL.

Follow us on Twitter: @WKU_Rivals, @SeanW_Rivals, @robholmesiv, @TheCaseyWarner, @HanaLei91, @DBo83

Like us on FACEBOOK.