Day: Saturday, September 25

Time: 7:00PM CST

Location: Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

Network: CBSSN

Betting line: Indiana -9.0 | O/U: 63.0

History: WKU and Indiana have met three times with the Hoosiers 3-0 in the matchup. Their last meeting was on September 19, 2015 with Indiana defeating WKU by a score of 38-35.

Quarterbacks

Despite WKU's loss to Army, it became clear that Bailey Zappe's video game numbers from Game 1 were no fluke. In similar fashion to his debut , Zappe completed 28-of-40 pass attempts for 435 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception, and picked up a rushing touchdown along the way against the Black Knights. Through two games, he leads the nation in passing yards per game and is #2 in total passing touchdowns, yards per pass attempt, and passer rating as well as #6 in completion percentage. Once Zappe gained even an ounce of momentum, it was nearly impossible for Army's (and UT Martin's) defense to contain him: typical of a well-executed Air Raid-style offense.

After a rough start to the season, and an injury to his non-throwing hand, Michael Penix Jr. remains the Hoosiers' QB1. Prior to the 2021 campaign, Penix has had three season-ending injuries including an ACL injury in 2020. At his best, and given each of his playing seasons have been cut short due to injury, Penix put up some big numbers. However, through three games, Penix has completed 42-of-87 pass attempts for 448 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Last week, Penix threw for a season-high 224 yards and 2 touchdowns but also had 3 interceptions in the loss to Cincinnati. The mistakes were costly as Cincinnati responded with 10 points from two of the three interceptions.

Advantage: WKU

Receivers

Losing tight end Joshua Simon to a season-ending injury after the UT Martin game was a blow to the Hilltoppers' receiving corps. However, Zappe still has a slew of targets at his disposal. Against Army, Jerreth Sterns led with 9 receptions for 171 yards and 2 touchdowns. Sterns currently leads the nation in receptions per game (8.1) and is second in the nation with 139.0 receiving yards per game. Also against Army, Mitchell Tinsley had 5 receptions for 93 yards and 1 touchdown. Heading into Saturday's matchup, WKU has five receivers with at least 100 receiving yards and at least 1 receiving touchdown. Those five receivers average 16.8 yards per reception. They each add a deep-threat level that is difficult for secondaries to cover even when they know it is coming.

D.J. Matthews Jr. and Ty Fryfogle lead the Hoosiers' receivers with 11 receptions each, a combined 276 yards, and 1 touchdown. Tight end Peyton Hendershot adds 9 receptions for 86 yards and 1 touchdown. Last week, Matthews had an impressive 120-yard game. Meanwhile, as noted by TheHoosier.com's Alec Lasley, Fryfogle - the 2020 Big Ten Receiver of the Year - has been grappling with drops. During the Cincinnati game, Fryfogle was targeted seven times but had 1 reception for 13 yards, and 3 consequential drops.

Until Penix and his targets consistently click...

Advantage: WKU

Running Backs

While the Hilltoppers' aerial attack has been on full display, the ground game has become questionably quiet. It wasn't so concerning against UT Martin as they still totaled 109 rushing yards and averaged 4.36 yards per carry. However, against Army, WKU had 19 carries for 42 total yards (2.2 yards per carry). Kye Robichaux led Game 1 with 9 carries for 44 yards (4.8 yards per carry) but did not have a carry against Army. Adam Cofield had 10 carries for 40 yards (4.0 yards per carry) against UT Martin but had 3 carries for just 2 yards in Game 2. Instead, it was Noah Whittington who led the Hilltoppers' ground game this time with 8 carries for 33 yards (4.1 yards per carry). Of course, WKU faced a tricky situation of trying to find balance between scoring quickly, keeping the ball out of Army's hands, and relieving a gassed defense. It was a Catch-22 and there came a time when scoring quickly (enter Zappe & Co.) was more of a priority than establishing any sort of ground game/controlling the clock. Finding their No. 1 guy sooner rather than later is crucial, at this point.

Indiana's passing game may be rusty, but there's a resemblance of stability in the ground game...it's just not very flashy. Running back Stephen Carr leads the team with 62 carries for 227 yards, 3.7 yards per carry, and 1 touchdown. Behind Carr is Tim Baldwin Jr. with 23 carries for 67 yards. Against Cincinnati, Baldwin had a costly fumble on the 2-yard line late in the fourth quarter that would have put Indiana ahead.

Neither team has a real exciting ground game, however, Indiana has averaged 136.0 rushing yards per game while WKU's rushing defense has allowed an average of 270.0 yards per game.

Advantage: Indiana

Offensive Line

After not allowing a single sack on Zappe during Game 1, the offensive line allowed 3 during the Army game (although the fault does not lie entirely on the line). They still gave Zappe all of the time and room to make big, explosive plays...and Zappe did exactly that.

Heading into the matchup, WKU's pass block ranks #3 with a PFF Grade of 87.2 and their run block ranks #106 with a PFF Grade of 54.6. Indiana's pass block ranks #92 with a PFF Grade of 49.6 and their run block ranks #66 with a PFF Grade of 63.1.

Advantage: WKU

Secondary

Playing Army is a different ballgame given their triple-option offense. With that, the secondary's duties look a bit different when facing a team that runs the ball more than 90.0% of all plays. Even so, WKU's secondary allowed Army to complete 5-of-7 pass attempts for 77 yards and 1 passing touchdown. Indiana resembles the type of offense WKU's secondary/defense prepares for all season long. WKU ranks #60 in coverage with a PFF Grade of 71.5.

The game looks to be WKU's prolific aerial attack vs. Indiana's secondary. WKU leads the nation in passing yards per game as well as third down conversion rate. To this point, Indiana's passing defense has allowed 56-of-103 pass attempts (54.4%) for 551 yards (183.6 yards per game), 3 touchdowns, and have 1 interception. They rank #74 in coverage with a PFF grade of 66.9. As it is the case with most of the Hoosiers' defense, the secondary has done a fine job. They'll be made even better with the return of safety Devon Matthews from injury.

Because of the Army game, we have not really seen much of WKU's secondary and their capabilities. Penix and his receivers are talented but off-kilter, currently. If the Hoosiers' passing game makes major adjustments, it could be just as much of a challenge for WKU's secondary as it is for Indiana.

Advantage: Even

Linebackers

Against Army, WKU's linebackers accounted for 12 total tackles. Through two games, they have totaled 23 tackles, 1.0 tackle for loss, and 1 fumble recovery. Demetrius Cain and Will Ignont each have 9 total tackles and Ignont had 1 fumble recovery against UT Martin. WKU's linebackers will need to be committed to run support. The last thing the Hilltopper defense needs is a hard fought battle in the run game all evening. Forcing Penix into passing situations will be key to their success

Indiana's linebacker corps has totaled 36 tackles, 3.0 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, 3 pass breakups, 2 quarterback hurries, and 2 forced fumbles. Cam Jones leads the linebackers with 14 total tackles, 1.0 tackle for loss, 1.0 sack, 1 pass breakup, and 1 forced fumble. They will likely help in passing coverage and at times apply pressure to Zappe so he doesn't have time to dissect the defense in the pocket.

Advantage: Indiana

Defensive Line

WKU's bye-week couldn't have been more timely. Through two games, WKU's rushing defense has allowed 270.0 yards per game, 6 touchdowns, and a whopping 5.3 yards per carry. Indiana may not have Army's run game, but the Hilltoppers even allowed 201 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 5.9 yards per carry out of UT Martin. Allowing an average 5.3 yards per carry (or anything really over 4.0) yards per carry puts the opponent in a position to control the game and clock. They do, however, continue to do a fine job of putting pressure on the quarterback. On the season, they've totaled 75 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 3 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 2 forced fumbles. The Hilltoppers' rushing defense ranked #77 with a PFF Grade of 67.1 and the pass rush ranked #11 with a PFF Grade of 83.9. WKU's d-line will have to hold their ground and neutralize the Hoosiers' offensive line's initial push upfront: disrupting, both, the running game and force Penix into passing situations.

Through three games, Indiana's rushing defense has allowed 113.7 yards per game, 5 touchdowns, and 3.6 yards per carry. The Hoosiers' rushing defense ranks #72 with a PFF Grade of 69.0 and the pass rush ranked #53 with a PFF Grade of 73.8. They've totaled 34 tackles, 2.0 tackles for loss, 1 pass breakup, 1 quarterback hurry, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 forced fumble. Like the entire defense, the main focus will be applying pressure on Zappe: winning the one-on-one battles up front and getting to him.

Advantage: Indiana

Special Teams

During Game 1, John Haggerty punted once for 44 yards with the ball landing inside of the 20 yard line. Against Army, the Black Knights partially blocked a punt, giving the ball back to Army at Army's 47-yard line. Kicker Brayden Narveson is 1-of-1 on field goals and 13-of-13 on extra point kicks. Army did not punt, so Jerreth Sterns still has 2 punt returns for an average 15.5 yards per return from the UT Martin game. Beanie Bishop and Joey Beljan total 4 kickoff returns for 98 yards and 24.5 yards per return.

Indiana punter Zach Harding has punted 16 times for 669 yards, 41.81 yards per punt, and with 3 punts inside of the 20-yard line. Kickers Charles Campbell and Chris Freeman are 3-of-3 on field goals and 11-of-11 on extra point kicks. On punt returns the Hoosiers' have 8 returns for 152 yards, 19.0 yards per return, and a pair of touchdowns. On kick returns, they have 5 returns for 143 yards and 28.6 yards per return.

Advantage: Even

Statistically, this is a pretty even (and interesting) matchup. Where WKU thrives, Indiana struggles...where Indiana thrives, WKU struggles. No matter, Indiana is the bigger, more talented team. Call it a trap game for Indiana as the Hoosiers play WKU in between #8 Cincinnati and #6 Penn State. Regardless, the Hilltoppers have a lot of advantages heading into the game including a sell-out crowd, a high-octane offense, and a timely bye-week for rest & recovery.

It is a game that could go any which way, but I'll be a maverick and say WKU pulls off the upset and defeats their first Big 10 opponent.

WKU - 36

Indiana - 34

****

Talk about it on WKU CONFIDENTIAL.

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL.

Follow us on Twitter: @WKU_Rivals, @SeanW_Rivals, @TMansfieldMedia, @TheCaseyWarner.

Like us on FACEBOOK.