Day: Saturday, September 19

Game Time: 11:00am CST

Location: Houchens Industries–L. T. Smith Stadium

Network: ESPNU

Series Record: The Hilltoppers and Flames have met twice ('95 and '96) with the Flames winning both matchups.

Betting Line: WKU -14.5 | O/U: 52

Quarterbacks

Despite 23 pass attempts and 17 carries in his debut, we know nothing of Piggy. Those numbers are still too small of a sample size. There's no question that he can run. Against a Louisville defensive front and pass rush that exceeded expectations, Piggy had 68 net rushing yards. Of 101 gained yards, he had 6 explosive runs of 10+ yards, and roughly 40 yards from quarterback scrambles and 50+ yards from designed runs. Through the air, though, Piggy went 10-of-23 for 129 yards, 5.6 yards per pass attempt, and 1 passing touchdown. Piggy and the Top's receiving corps had a difficult time connecting which could be attributed to the following:

1) The Cards ran a stout nickel-defense that left it hard for Tops' receivers to get open. 2) Often, Piggy's accuracy looked like it was there, but the pass appeared to have almost too much force for [mostly] short screen passes. 3) Some of Piggy's shortcomings could be attributed to weather, nerves, and familiarizing himself with his new squad in a game-time situation.

Former Auburn quarterback Malik Willis was named Liberty's QB1 on Monday, September 14. At Auburn he was backup to Jarrett Stidham in 2017 and 2018. During this time, he went 10-of-13 for 69 yards and 1 passing touchdown as well as 25 carries for 309 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. Willis battled for the position against former Maine QB Chris Ferguson. In 2018, Ferguson and the Maine Black Bears defeated WKU 31-28.

Willis - a dual-threat guy - brings to the table a big play threat which WKU's defense (particularly secondary) struggled against during the Louisville game. However, this will be his and the Flames' first game of the season.

Advantage: Even

Receivers

Losing Sloan was a hit to WKU's receiving corps, but potential was seen in Mitchell Tinsley and Craig Burt Jr. last Saturday. It was Tinsley who effortlessly caught Piggy's pass up the middle for a 12-yard touchdown: Piggy's first TD pass, Tinsley's first receiving TD, the Tops' first (and only) TD through the air, and gave the offense a bit of a heartbeat. Piggy and the receivers looked best when Piggy was able to execute designed runs that opened up the field for the passing game. And, of course, the Tops still have wideout Jahcour Pearson and tight end Joshua Simon. Sure, Pearson fumbled a 50-yard dime from Piggy, but the offensive woes were more extensive than the one play and one player, alone (see 4th & Goal at LOU 3). Simon was targeted twice without a reception. Like Piggy, there isn't a ton to say about the receivers until we see more. Going forward, the passing game has to spread the ball out and stretch the field more than they did against Louisville.

Liberty returns slot receiver DJ Stubbs and athletic tight end Johnny Huntley. In 2019, Stubbs had 32 receptions for 401 yards and 3 touchdowns. Huntley had 11 receptions for 196 yards and 1 touchdown. They'll also lean on redshirt freshman CJ Yarbrough and Chaffey College transfer Jaivian Lofton at receiver. Through two seasons at Chaffey, Lofton accumulated 72 receptions for 1,584 yards (22 yards per reception) and 20 touchdowns. He's a guy that can play wide or in the slot. If Willis is truly a big play threat, then Lofton will be his deep threat guy.

Advantage: WKU

Running Backs

Gaej Walker and Malik Staples each hauled in a touchdown after Louisville's punting woes. Otherwise, on the night, the Hilltoppers were never able to establish a ground game. While Piggy had 68 net rushing yards, Walker had 19, Noah Whittington had 16, and Staples and Jakairi Moses each had 8. Again, nothing groundbreaking here, but they'll have to do more.

Flames' running back Joshua Mack returns after a solid debut season in 2019. Last season, behind two-time 1,000-yard rusher Frankie Hickson, Mack posted 133 carries for 774 yards (5.8 yards per carry) and 7 rushing touchdowns. Running backs coach Bruce Johnson indicated that play will be given to Mack the first series of the game, then Peyton Pickett the second series, then ride the hot hand. Pickett had 24 carries for 83 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2019.

Advantage: WKU

Offensive Line

Last Saturday, WKU's offensive line did not look like their veteran-selves. Whether it be lackadaisical play or mismatched to Louisville's much improved defensive front, the Tops' allowed 3 sacks, 10 tackles for loss, and 3 quarterback hurries. Piggy was rarely given much time in the pocket and the ground game had no where to run. Additionally, the exchange between C Seth Joest and Piggy was a little rusty: possibly due to a lack of chemistry that will develop over time. Snaps often seemed high and left 5'10" Piggy reaching or wobbling for most.

Liberty returns three-of-five starters from 2019 in LT Tristan Schultz, LG Damian Bounds, and C Thomas Sargeant. Last season, they allowed 28 sacks and a loss of 199 yards. They'll be a bit lopsided as they have to fill the right tackle and right guard spots: a vulnerability that WKU's stout defensive front could exploit.

Advantage: WKU

Defensive Backs

Against Louisville, WKU's secondary had a difficult time defending the pass. They allowed 343 yards out of Micale Cunningham and were beat deep...a lot. Of those 343 yards, 260 yards were from 7 explosive pass plays (15+ yards). At one point, S Antwon Kincade was in line for an easy pick, but Dez Fitzpatrick flew in from his route and snatched the ball for a huge 70 yard touchdown. If big plays are Hilltoppper DB's kryptonite, then Liberty head coach Hugh Freeze and the passing attack are going to cash in on such fact. However, corner Omari Alexander was a bright spot for the Tops as a whole with 5 total tackles, 1.0 tackle for loss, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery and 1 blocked punt.

Corner Jimmy Faulks - a two-year starter - returns after 17 total tackles, 1 interception, and 2 pass breakups. Kei'Trel Clark was a staple at corner, however, he transferred to Louisville which is a hit to the Flames' secondary. Safety Javon Scruggs is the Flames' second-leading returning tackler: having 58 total tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 0.5 sacks, 2 interceptions, 5 pass breakups, 1 quarterback hurry, and 1 fumble recovery in 2019. They're a sneaky good group that could be able to capitalize on any miscommunications between Piggy and the receiving corps.

Advantage: Liberty

Linebackers

Coming back from a season-ending injury, Eli Brown made his return known. Against Louisville, Brown tied the team-high of 8 total tackles and added 1 tackle for loss. Kyle Bailey - who had a big 2019 season - came up with 6 total tackles and 0.5 tackles for loss. WKU is, currently, without Clay Davis due to injury. Tennessee transfer Will Ignont did not see playing time last Saturday. As a group, the linebackers did a fine job against Louisville, but nothing statistically amazing. They'll have to rattle Willis and Mack/Pickett especially given the Tops' possible concerns at secondary.

Liberty's Amarii Jenkins and Tyren Dupree are without a ton of starts, but they do have experience under their belt. Combined they totaled 56 total tackles, 3.0 tackles for loss, 3.0 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 1 quarterback hurry, 2 forced fumbles and 1 fumble recovery in 2019. It was Louisville's linebacking corps that brought the heat last week: delivering 27 tackles, 3.0 sacks, 9-of-10 tackles for loss, 1-of-2 pass deflections, and 1-of-3 quarterback hurries.

Advantage: WKU

Defensive Line

Despite a team sloppy start, defensive end DeAngelo Malone, per usual, still looks like NFL talent. Last week, he had 8 total tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 1.0 sack, and 1 forced fumble. It is almost a given, each week, that he'll give opponents fits. It should be no different against Liberty. DE Juwuan Jones adds another layer to their effectiveness.

As a unit, the defensive line did look gassed against a bigger and much improved Louisville offensive line. However, I'd expect the line to look better and revitalized against a Liberty team with some weak [or at least not as experienced] spots at right guard and right tackle. If Liberty's passing game doesn't find a rhythm, their ground game will be worn down.

It seems defensive ends are, also, Liberty's bright spots. In 2019, TreShaun Clark and Austin Lewis combined for 72 total tackles, 14 tackles for loss, 7.0 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 4 quarterback hurries, and 2 forced fumbles. Ralfs Rusins anchors the middle. In 2019, Rusins accumulated 60 total tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, and 2.0 sacks. The Flames' d-line should be outmatched against WKU's o-line, but if the Tops' play as they did against Louisville, Liberty could have a big day.

Advantage: WKU

Special Teams

WKU punter John Haggerty was named the Ray Guy Award Punter of the Week for his performance against Louisville (5 punts, 231 yards, 46.2 yards per punt, 3 punts inside of the 20). The Tops' didn't kick any field goals, but Brayden Narveson did go 3-for-3 on extra points. On returns, Omari Alexander had 1 punt return for 23 yards and Dayton Wade had 2 kick returns and an average of 19.5 yards per return.

All-Independent kicker Alex Probert transferred to Iowa State, leaving Jason Stricker and Penn State transfer Alex Barbin to battle for the job. Punter Aidan Alves improved last year and averaged 41.6 yards per punt.

Advantage: WKU

There were a couple times, WKU looked out for the count against Louisville. However, they never resigned to the vicissitudes of the game: showing improvement and life during the 4th quarter. But they cannot afford to play like that against any team. Should WKU defeat Liberty? Yes. But Liberty is a trap game and is no slouch, either. WKU can't find their identity in the second-half; they have to find it before the game even starts.