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Published Oct 25, 2019
Analyzing the Enemy: Marshall Thundering Herd (10/26/19)
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Hannah Page  •  InsideHilltopperSports
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@hanalei91

Day: Saturday, October 26

Time: 1:30 PM CST/2:30 PM EST

Location: Joan C. Edwards Stadium

Network: Facebook Live

Betting line: MRSH -4 | O/U: 45.0

History: Marshall leads the "Moonshine Throwdown" series 6-4. The Thundering Herd, currently, hold a two game win streak, having defeated the Hilltoppers in 2017 and 2018. Last year, Marshall defeated WKU at Smith Stadium by a score of 20-17.

Position Breakdown

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Quarterback Comparison
StoreyGreen

Pass attempts per game

28

28.1

Completions per game

19.5

16.3

Completion %

69.6%

57.9%

Passing yards per game

201.3

196.7

Yards per pass attempt

7.2

7.0

Adjusted yards per attempt

7.7

6.6

Passing TDs per game

1.25

1.42

INT per game

0.25

0.85

Quarterback

WKU is, now, 4-0 with Ty Storey as the starting quarterback. He has been the epitome of consistency [especially] for three consecutive weeks: going 21-of-30 against Charlotte and Army as well as 21-of-28 against ODU. He is a triple threat who can pass, rush, and - as made apparent in the Charlotte game - receive. Simply put, Storey finds a way to put up numbers. Against Army, Storey had 0 passing touchdowns, however, he was responsible for 2 rushing touchdowns. Last week, against Charlotte, Storey posted 2 passing touchdowns, 1 receiving touchdown, and 0 rushing touchdowns. Whatever it takes.

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Marshall's Isaiah Green has not found as much consistency or accuracy as Storey, but his performances against ODU and FAU could be a spark that is turning into a flame. Against ODU, Green went 19-of-31 for 175 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, and had 11 carries for 59 yards and 1 rushing touchdown. Then, against FAU, Green went 15-of-24 for 206 passing yards and 2 passing touchdowns (and 1 interception).

Advantage: WKU

Receivers

Marshall's receiving corps is headlined by tight end Armani Levias and wideout Willie Johnson. Levias has 22 receptions for 269 yards, 12.2 yards per reception, and 2 touchdowns. Johnson has made the most of his 8 receptions, totaling 205 yards, a whopping 25.6 yards per reception, and 2 touchdowns. Receiving, he has longs of 60, 48, 23, and 29 yards. The speedy utility man is also an explosive threat on the ground with 5 carries, 82 rushing yards, 16.4 yards per carry, and 2 rushing touchdowns; he has long runs of 40, 27, and 18 yards.

In last week's win over FAU, Marshall's tight ends - Levias, Xavier Gaines, and Devin Miller - were the difference makers. The offense utilized three tight ends on the field, which created matchup problems and exploited smaller FAU defenders. The trio accounted for 9 receptions and 104-of-206 receiving yards.

WKU has three receivers with 200+ yards and two receivers with 300+ yards. Jahcour Pearson and Lucky Jackson have alternated as the leading receiver a couple of times this season. Currently, Jackson leads the Tops with 404 yards from 30 receptions, 13.5 yards per reception, a long of 69 yards, and 1 touchdown. Last week, Jackson put on a show with 5 receptions for 141 yards, 28.2 yards per reception, one 69 yard touchdown off of a flea-flicker, and threw an 8-yard touchdown pass to Storey on a trick play. Pearson has 40 receptions for 384 yards, 9.6 yards per reception, a long of 50 yards, and 4 touchdowns.

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In addition, freshman tight end Josh Simon has stepped up as a big play threat with 11 receptions for 190 yards, 17.3 yards per reception, a long of 77 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Earlier this week, Simon was named to the FWAA Freshman All-American Midseason Watch List.

Between Jackson, Pearson, Simon, Jacquez Sloan, Quin Jernighan, and Kyle Fourtenbary, Storey has a lot of reliable options in the passing attack.

Advantage: Even

Running Back

Against a typically subpar Charlotte rushing defense, WKU's Gaej Walker had 21 carries for 70 yards, 3.3 yards per carry, and a long of 17 yards. Prior to the Charlotte game, Walker had posted back-to-back 100+ yard games against the likes of Army and ODU. While it may not have been his best statistical performance, Walker was still able to pick up necessary yardage and primed WKU to score. Prior to the matchup, the mobile Storey had been averaging 12.6 carries and 33.3 yards per game. During the Charlotte game, Storey had 11 carries for -2 yards.

For the second-straight week, WKU will face the league's best running back. Last week, the Tops rushing defense was able to hold Charlotte's Benny LeMay to a season low of 45 yards and 3.0 yards per carry. This performance, in addition to a monstrous game from Marshall's Brenden Knox, secured Knox's standing in the leader board. Knox now has 118 carries for 719 yards, 6.1 yards per carry, 7 touchdowns, and 102.7 yards per game. He has three 100+ yard games. In last week's win over FAU, Knox had 23 carries, 220 yards, 9.6 yards per carry, and 2 rushing touchdowns. 74.1% of his yardage was after contact.

Both teams have strong rushing defenses that have been able to hold off typically strong ground attacks.

Advantage: Marshall

Offensive Line

Behind Knox's success is a veteran offensive line that ranks #16 in line yards, #18 in standard downs line yards, #15 in opportunity rate, #66 in power success rate, and #37 in stuff rate. They have been paving the way for Knox's production.

The Hilltoppers' o-line is opposite of Marshall's line: good at pass blocking (sack rate, standard downs sack rate, passing downs sack rate) and [statistically] below the national average in line yards, standard downs line yards opportunity rate, etc.

An interesting category of note is that WKU ranks #7 in power success rate (percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieve a first down or touchdown).

Both lines have a tough task of protecting their mobile quarterbacks.

Advantage: Even

Secondary

After missing the first six games due to injury, cornerback Roger Cray made the most of his season debut by picking off Charlotte's Chris Reynolds in the 3rd quarter: seemingly setting up the offense to move the ball to the Charlotte 30 yard line and Cory Munson's 48 yard field goal.

Devon Key, Antwon Kincade, and Ta'Corian Darden lead the secondary with a combined 115 total tackles, 7 TFLs, 1-of-6 INTs, 9 pass breakups, 1 quarterback hurry, and 1 fumble recovery.

Although WKU's passing defense ranks #2 in the league, they will have their hands full with the likes of Marshall's tight ends and speedy Willie Johnson. They cannot afford to get burned.

Nazeeh Johnson, Brandon Drayton, and Kereon Merrell lead the Herd's secondary with a combined 126 total tackles, 5.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks, 0-of- 3 INTs, 7 pass breakups, and 1 forced fumble. However, Marshall will be without Drayton as the redshirt junior safety was suspended following his arrest on strangulation and domestic battery charges.

Marshall's passing defense has allowed an average of 248.4 yards per game, 8.2 yards per pass, and a completion rate of 60.2%.

If the Herd's pass rush can rattle the usually composed and efficient Storey, the passing defense could have a big game.

Advantage: WKU

Linebackers

Marshall's linebacking corps is led by Tavante Beckett, Omari Cobb, and Tyler Brown. Combined, they have 145 total tackles, 17 TFLs, 7.5 sacks, 1 INT, 2 pass breakups, 8 quarterback hurries, and 2 forced fumbles. Last week, the defensive line put a lot of pressure on FAU QB Chris Robison, which allowed the linebackers to dial up the blitz. The three aforementioned linebackers totaled 20 tackles, 3.5 sacks, and 6 TFLs. WKU's Storey will undoubtedly be tested against the Herd's strong pass rush.

The Hilltoppers' linebacking corps is led by Kyle Bailey, who has been a stable and reliable presence in the pass rush as well as in the passing defense. He has 57 total tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 2 interceptions, and 4 quarterback hurries. Bailey eased into his new position seamlessly, and stepped up in a big way, but Malik Staples, Jaden Hunter, and Clay Davis will have to do more especially against the likes of Marshall's three-headed tight end trio.

Advantage: Marshall

Defensive Line

Hilltopper defensive end DeAngelo Malone leads the defensive front (and defense) with 58 total tackles, 16.0 TFLs, 9.0 sacks, and 10 quarterback hurries. He leads the nation and league in TFLs and leads the league in sacks. The junior is able to make tackles all over the field and teams continually have to prepare for him, specifically. His counterpart, Juwuan Jones, has totaled 28 tackles, 5.0 TFLs, 3.5 sacks, and 5 quarterback hurries. It is unclear if defensive tackles Jeremy Darvin and Lichon Terrell are still out, however, coach Kenny Martin has continued to rotate guys to ensure experience and depth. Last week, Jaylon George led with 4 total tackles and 1 TFL. The defensive front has been steadfast and are more than capable of putting pressure on the quarterback and stopping strong ground attacks.

Marshall's defensive front has several key players in Marquis Couch, Darius Hodge, Channing Hames, and Rodney Croom. Couch leads the front with 32 total tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, 1 pass breakup, and 3 quarterback hurries. The Herd's defense has been able to step up the past two weeks in part due to their depth on the defensive line.

Advantage: WKU

Special Teams

WKU placekicker Cory Munson is 18-of-18 on extra points and 10-of-16 on field goals. Punter John Haggerty averages 44.82 yards per punt with 8 inside of the 20 yard line. Kick return man Garland LaFrance is averaging 19.67 yards per kick return off of 15 returns.

Marshall placekicker Justin Rohrwasser is 21-of-22 on extra points and 7-of-7 on field goals. Punter Robert LeFevre averages 41.46 yards per punt with 12 inside of the 20 yard line. Kick returners Willie Johnson and Sheldon Evans lead with 18.0 and 18.43 yards per return, respectively. Punt returner Talik Keaton averages 13.6 yards per punt return.

Advantage: Even


Summary and Prediction

It is another edition of the "Moonshine Throwdown," and this year the stakes are high. WKU currently sits atop the East Division (4-0) while Marshall comes in right behind the Tops (2-1). The rivalry will be made even more heated given the circumstances. WKU's defense has done a tremendous job this season, while the offense has steadily improved play each game. Marshall has won back-to-back games against the likes of ODU and FAU while playmakers have emerged.

The Tops' defense has faced similar offenses, before. Nonetheless, they still need stuff the run, force Green to throw, and not get burned in the air. The offensive line will have to control the line of scrimmage against a Marshall defense who has posted 25 sacks. If WKU's defense gets gassed at all, it could spell trouble.

Prediction

WKU 30, Marshall 28

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