Analyzing the Enemy: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (11/6/21)

Day: Saturday, November 6

Time: 2:30PM CST

Location: Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

Network: Stadium

Betting line: WKU -17.0 | O/U: 68

History: This will be the seventy-first meeting of MTSU and WKU. MTSU leads the "100 Miles of Hate" rivalry series 35-34-1. WKU has defeated MTSU the past two seasons: 31-26 in 2019 and 20-17 in 2020.

Quarterbacks

Through eight games, WKU's Bailey Zappe has completed 279-of-391 pass attempts (71.4%) for 3,407 yards, 425.9 yards per game, 8.7 yards per pass attempt, and 33 touchdowns as well as and 6 interceptions. He ranks #2 in total passing yards, #1 in passing yards per game, #5 in completion percentage, #1 in passing touchdowns, and has the ninth-best passer rating in the nation. Zappe claims all of Conference USA's statistical passing categories. He ranks #2 in PFF's Highest passing grades on deep pass attempts (97.6).

Against Charlotte , Zappe completed 33-of-45 pass attempts (73.3%) for 393 yards, 8.7 yards per pass attempt, and 4 touchdowns as well as carried in 1 rushing touchdown.

Not to sound like a broken record, but Zappe has not let off the gas once. He's consistent, efficient, explosive, competent, and everything you want out of a quarterback. His task this week is to remain the same against one of the league's better defenses.

WKU's passing game has a success rate of 52.0%, PPA of 0.514, and explosiveness of 1.5.

Chase Cunningham leads the Blue Raiders having completed 110-of-176 pass attempts (62.5%) for 1,318 yards, 164.75 yards per game, 7.5 yards per pass attempt, and 16 touchdowns as well as 3 interceptions. His featured mobility comes with 44 carries, 118 yards, and 2.7 yards per carry. In MTSU's 35-10 win over Southern Miss., Cunningham went 4-of-7 for 48 yards, 1 interception, and 1 sack before leaving the game with a leg injury. Mike DiLiello took over for the injured Cunningham and went 8-of-12 (66.6%) for 78 yards, and 6.5 yards per pass attempt. DiLiello led the team's ground attack with 11 carries for 77 yards, 7.0 yards per carry, and a pair of touchdowns.

Middle's passing game has a success rate of 39.2%, PPA of 0.297, and explosiveness of 1.6.

Note: Cunningham is, now, out for the rest of the season.

Advantage: WKU

Receivers

WKU's receiver corps is led by Jerreth Sterns who ranks #1 nationally in total yards (1,166), #1 in receiving yards per game (145.78), #1 in receiving touchdowns (11), #1 in total receptions (93), #1 in receptions per game (11.68), and tied at #1 in PFF's Grade for Pass Routes of 20+ Yards. Last week, Sterns had 10 receptions for 89 yards, 8.9 yards per reception, and 1 touchdown.

The receivers' depth continues to put stress on the opposing secondaries and has provided Zappe with a multitude of weapons to carve up defense upon defense.

Mitchell Tinsley has 40 receptions for 627 yards, 15.7 yards per reception, and 5 touchdowns. Malachi Corley has 48 receptions for 484 yards, 10.1 yards per reception, and 4 touchdowns. Daewood Davis and Craig Burt Jr. combine for 35 receptions, 586 yards, 16.74 yards per reception, and 5 touchdowns. On the season, the receiving corps averages 12.4 yards per reception, 9 receivers have at least 1 touchdown, and ranks #24 in PFF's Grade for Pass Routes.

MTSU's receiver corps is led by Jimmy Marshall and Jarrin Pierce with 31 receptions each. Marshall has 404 yards for 13.0 yards per reception and 5 touchdowns while Pierce has 367 yards for 11.8 yards per reception and 5 touchdowns. Jaylin Lane adds 19 receptions for 255 yards, 13.4 yards per reception, and 3 touchdowns. Against Southern Miss., Pierce had 3 receptions for 75 yards and 25.0 yards per reception. Marshall and Lane combined for 5 catches and 29 yards. Through eight games, the receiving corps averages 11.6 yards per reception and 8 receivers have at least 1 touchdown. The unit ranks #44 in PFF's Grade for Pass Routes. They are a solid group, but only time will tell if the passing attack comes together under a new starting quarterback.

Advantage: WKU

Running Backs

The Tops' ground attack isn't flashy - nor do they have to be with Zappe & Co. - but is certainly reliable and efficient. After three consecutive 100+ yard games, WKU posted a gain of 101 yards and net of 76 yards against Charlotte. Noah Whittington, Adam Cofield and Zappe combined for 16 carries, 93 yards, 5.8 yards per carry, and 2 touchdowns. In total, the ground attack has 197 carries for 808 net yards (101.0 yards per game), 4.1 yards per carry, and 7 rushing touchdowns. Cofield leads the group with 63 carries, 317 yards, 5.0 yards per carry, and 4 touchdowns. So far, the unit boasts a 54.0% success rate, PPA of 0.09, and explosiveness of 0.62.

Middle's ground game is led by Chaton Mobley and Martell Pettaway. The two combine for 86 carries, 359 yards, 4.2 yards per carry, and 4 touchdowns. There's plenty of unknowns surrounding DiLello as a passer, but he has proven to be a threat with his legs: accounting for 22 carries, 118 yards, 5.4 yards per carry, and 3 touchdowns. The unit has four 100+ yard games, one 200+ yard game, and has totaled 267 carries for 837 yards, 3.1 yards per carry, and 7 touchdowns through eight games. They have a success rate of 38.6%, PPA of 0.008, and explosiveness of 0.94.

Advantage: Even

Offensive Line

WKU's pass blocking remains #1 in PFF's Grade for Pass Blocking with an 89.7. Undoubtedly, the Tops' passing success is a tribute to the steadfast offensive line. They also rank #53 in PFF's Grade for Run Blocking with a 68.7. WKU's o-line has allowed 10 sacks as well as a stuff rate of 14.0%.

MTSU's pass blocking ranks #108 with a PFF Grade of 49.0 while run blocking ranks #109 with a grade of 56.7. The Blue Raiders' o-line has allowed 19 sacks (11 of the 19 sacks were on Cunningham and in part a reflection of his mobile tendencies) as well as a stuff rate of 16.5%.

Advantage: WKU

Secondary

WKU's secondary has allowed 169-of-276 pass attempts (61.2%) for 2,062 yards (257.75 yards per game), 7.47 yards per pass attempt, and 11 passing touchdowns (1.4 passing touchdowns per game). During the Charlotte game, the Tops allowed 12-of-24 pass attempts (50.0%) for 129 yards and 5.3 yards per pass attempt. They allowed an EPA per pass of -0.55 and success rate of 0.32 on passing plays.

Antwon Kincade, A.J. Brathwaite Jr., Kahlef Hailassie, Miguel Edwards, Kaleb Oliver, Beanie Bishop, and Omari Alexander combine for 212 total tackles, 8.0 tackles for loss, 1.0 sack, 3-of-5 interceptions, 17 pass breakups, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 forced fumble. WKU moved up from #66 to #55 in coverage with a PFF Grade of 73.9. They allow a passing success rate of 43.7%, PPA of 0.28, and explosiveness of 1.4.

Through seven games, the Blue Raiders have allowed 182-of-306 pass attempts (59.5%) for 1,925 yards (240.6 yards per game), 6.29 yards per pass attempt, and 13 touchdowns as well as recorded 13 interceptions. They also allow a 42.2% success rate, PPA of 0.29, and explosiveness of 1.4. MTSU's opponents have averaged 38 pass attempts per game as well as 6.29 yards per pass attempt. Against WKU, they'll face an aerial assault that averages 49.1 pass attempts per game as well as 8.8 yards per pass attempt. To this point, most opponents had not yet faced a team, like WKU, with such an established, potent aerial attack. Middle has faced seven teams who've thrown for 30+ pass attempts in their respective matchup. However, WKU's 30.0% increase in pass attempts coupled with the Tops' consistent success and efficiency through the air may be what sets them apart from Middle's previous opponents. Nonetheless, the Blue Raiders have a lot of depth and will be one of the best secondaries WKU has faced.

Reed Blankenship, Gregory Grate, Teldrick Ross, Decorian Patterson, and Quincy Riley combine for 199 total tackles, 12.0 tackles for loss, 8-of-13 interceptions, 22 pass breakups, 1 quarterback hurry, 4 fumble recoveries, and 4 forced fumble. Riley is responsible for four of the Blue Raiders' interceptions. Blankenship leads the defense with 72 total tackles, 8.0 tackles for loss, 8 pass breakups, 3 fumble recoveries, and 2 forced fumbles. MTSU ranks #41 in coverage with a PFF Grade of 78.9.

Advantage: MTSU

Linebackers

Against Charlotte, WKU linebacker Will Ignont had 1 tackle, 0.5 tackle for loss, 0.5 sack, and 1 pass breakup while Demetrius Cain had 4 tackles, 1 quarterback hurry, and 1 interception. This season, Ignont and Cain have totaled 71 tackles, 6.0 tackles for loss, 4.0 sacks, 2 interceptions, 5 pass breakups, 2 quarterback hurries, and 1 fumble recovery. DiLiello is going to scramble...that much is known. And, to this point, MTSU's offense has been even-keel in their pass and rush rate. Any which way, WKU's linebackers should be prepared to step up and make big plays.

MTSU's linebacker corps is led by Jalen Davis, Jurriente Davis, and DQ Thomas. The three combine for 164 total tackles, 17.5 tackles for loss, 6.0 sacks, 2 interceptions, 11 quarterback hurries, and 5 fumble recoveries. Although they face the challenge of getting past WKU's #1 pass blocking unit and getting to the quick-thinking Zappe, WKU will be equally as challenged when facing a productive pass rush.

Advantage: MTSU

Defensive Line

WKU's rushing defense has allowed 331 carries to go for 1,395 yards, 174.4 yards per game, 4.2 yards per carry, and 18 touchdowns. Last week, the Tops' defense stifled Charlotte's passing game, and the 49ers were left to run: totaling 45 carries for 190 yards, 4.2 yards per carry, and quarterback James Foster hauled in the team's lone touchdown.

Additionally, the d-line has maintained consistent, timely pressure on the quarterback: exhausting the opponent's momentum and putting the ball back into WKU's hands. Last week, they were responsible for 3 sacks, 9 tackles for loss, and 1 quarterback hurry.

On the season, the d-line has totaled 234 tackles, 28.0 tackles for loss, 14 sacks, 10 pass breakups, 14 quarterback hurries, 3 fumble recoveries, and 6 forced fumbles. The Hilltoppers' rushing defense ranks #94 with a PFF Grade of 60.1 and the pass rush ranks #66 with a PFF Grade of 74.5. They allow a rushing success rate of 50.0%, PPA of 0.235, and explosiveness of 0.912. Defensive end DeAngelo Malone leads the line and defense with 58 total tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 4 quarterback hurries, and 3 forced fumbles. He's quick off the edge and could be a problem to the new Middle quarterback.

MTSU's rushing defense has allowed 307 carries to go for 1,223 yards, 152.9 yards per game, 4.0 yards per carry, and 13 touchdowns. Against Virginia Tech, Charlotte, and Liberty, the Blue Raiders allowed more than 200+ yards per game; however, they haven't allowed a 100+ yard performance for back-to-back games. Middle's rushing defense ranks #57 with a PFF Grade of 72.5. So far, they've allowed a rushing success rate of 48.3%, PPA of 0.087, and explosiveness of 0.688. The d-line has totaled 137 total tackles, 26.5 tackles for loss, 13.0 sacks, 1 interception, 3 pass breakups, 31 quarterback hurries, 5 fumble recoveries, and 5 forced fumbles. Jordan Ferguson leads the line with 36 total tackles, 14.0 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 11 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 3 forced fumbles. The pass rush ranks #105 with a PFF Grade of 67.1

Advantage: Even

Special Teams

Punter John Haggerty has punted 16 times for 843 yards, 52.69 yards per punt, and has 6 punts land inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Brayden Narveson is 13-of-15 on field goals and 37-of-37 on extra point kicks. Jerreth Sterns and DeAngelo Wilson combine for 15 punt returns, 180 return yards, and 12.0 yards per return. Beanie Bishop, Joey Beljan, and Jakairi Moses total 17 kickoff returns for 388 yards and 22.82 yards per return.

MTSU's Kyle Ulrich has punted 43 times for 1,916 yards, 44.56 yards per punt, and has 18 punts inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Zeke Rankin is 4-of-6 on field goals and is 26-of-27 on extra point kicks. Led by Jaylin Lane, the punt return crew totals 9 punt returns for 190 yards, 21.11 yards per punt return, and have 2 return touchdowns. Lane, Amir Rasul, and Frank Peasant combine for 10 kickoff returns for 211 yards and 21.10 yards per return.

Advantage: WKU

Both 4-4 teams are looking to inch their way closer to bowl eligibility and break 0.500. But more is at stake for WKU as they try to maintain their [tied] first place standing within the division.

The game is likely to be a story of WKU's high-octane offense vs. MTSU's productive defense. Within the conference, and definitely within the division, MTSU - coupled with the rivalry - will be one of WKU's toughest tasks. The rivalry, of course, always brings some heat and notoriously close games.

WKU - 37

MTSU - 21

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