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Published Oct 14, 2016
Analyzing the Enemy: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (10/15/16)
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Hannah Page  •  InsideHilltopperSports
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@hanalei91

Legend says there is a rivalry that is only separated by 100 miles. They call it "100 Miles of Hate." In a showdown of epic proportions, the red and blue face off for bragging rights.

This year, it is for much more than bragging. This year, "100 Miles of Hate" could potentially determine the C-USA East winner.

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Day: Saturday, October 15

Time: 1:30PM CST

Location: Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

Network: ESPN3

Series Record: MTSU leads 33-30-1 (since 1914); MTSU leads 4-2 since WKU joined the FBS (2009). Last year, WKU won 58-28.

Betting Line: MTSU by 3 according to ESPN.com

It was a weird week in C-USA. After WKU's heartbreaking loss to Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss lost to UTSA and Marshall lost to North Texas. Meanwhile, MTSU was enjoying their bye-week, sipping on some sweet tea, and avoiding the madness.

I will not sugarcoat it, there are a lot of things that are not playing out in WKU's favor come Saturday. 1) The loss to Louisiana Tech ended the Hilltoppers reign as most [current] consecutive conference wins in the nation. 2) The Blue Raiders have had two weeks to prepare for WKU. 3) The game will be played at MTSU. 4) WKU still has an injury-riddled team.

This game, by no means, will be a shoe-in for MTSU. They may be favored by 3, but WKU was favored by 3 against LATech...


Position Group Predictions

To any Blue Raider fan reading this article, I am comparing positions not matchups.

Quarterback

Mike White (WKU) vs. Brent Stockstill (MTSU)

Statistically, you are looking at two quarterbacks who are neck and neck. White has posted 1,707 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Stockstill has put up 1,657 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. And while I believe both will play well come Saturday, I will give the home field advantage to Stockstill.

Advantage: MTSU

Running Back

Ace Wales is a huge asset to the Hilltoppers. Despite missing one game and having limited reps against an FCS team, Wales has produced 424 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns, and 97 receiving yards. Wales is the lone-wolf among running backs as D'Andre Ferby is out for the season. Quinton Baker can add relief, but WKU will utilize Wales as much as possible.

I'Tavius Mathers - an Ole Miss Rebels transfer - leads the Blue Raiders with 582 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, 267 receiving yards, and 2 receiving touchdowns. He is an extremely versatile player who can tear through a defensive line or catch the ball out of the backfield. The leading rusher/second-leading receiver will be a challenge, but WKU's defensive line only allows 2.7 rushing yards per attempt.

Advantage: MTSU

Receivers

Still, you absolutely cannot beat the Taywan Taylor/Nicholas Norris duo. Taylor has quietly accumulated 673 yards and 4 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the small but speedy Norris has been finding separation and making plays in space: recording 560 receiving yards, 8 receiving touchdowns, 128 rushing yards, and 1 rushing touchdown.

Richie James leads the Blue Raiders with 553 yards and 3 touchdowns. James will pose a threat to WKU's struggling secondary, while Taylor and Norris will probably be the best receiving duo the Blue Raiders face all season.

Advantage: WKU

Offensive Line

Regardless of the very last play against LATech, WKU's offensive line was healthy and back to normal. With Forrest Lamp's return, we saw a much more confident offense. I say it every week...

Advantage: WKU

Secondary

There is really no pretty way of saying it.

The Hilltoppers' secondary was burned over and over by big plays. 1st time, "that is normal." 2nd time, "umm let's fix this mistake before it becomes an issue." 3rd time, "Houston, we have a problem." A combination of events unfolded that revealed a vulnerable secondary. You have the safeties whose job is to not get beat deep; they were getting beat deep. The Tops were in cover two and the corners were not jamming the receivers. When they were in cover three or quarters, the Tops were letting the receivers blow by them. With WKU's Joe Brown out for the first-half of the game for a targeting call during the LATech game, the capable redshirt-sophomore Martavius Mims will step up.

MTSU has a pretty good passing defense: coming in at #39 in the nation. However, the Blue Raiders' secondary shows a smidgen of instability against pass heavy teams. Until proven otherwise...

Advantage: MTSU

Defensive Line + Linebackers

Despite's secondary's performance against LATech, WKU's front seven were - and have been - fairly solid. The Hilltoppers are #28 in total sacks, #21 in total tackles, #21 in rushing yards, and #6 in yards per rush attempt. WKU must contain Mathers to remain in the game.

After holding North Texas to 5 total rushing yards, MTSU's defensive line is feeling confident (especially after a bye-week). Defensive end Steven Rhodes told Murfreesboro's Daily News Journal: "I don't feel like they can run it on us...I feel like our defensive line is strong right now, and we can force WKU to be one-dimensional." However, the North Texas game was a bit of an anomaly. Prior to that game, the Blue Raiders were allowing an average 186.25 yards per game.

Advantage: Tie

Special Teams

I said the other day and I will say it again. WKU's special teams are a huge weapon and the epitome of production. It is no coincidence that the Tops are ranked #3 in special teams efficiency (up 2 spots from six days ago). I cannot say enough good things about this unit.

-Kylen Towner is the #2 kickoff return leader in the nation with 532 yards and averaging 33.3 yards per kickoff. Against LATech, Shaquille Johnson blocked a punt and Towner returned the punt for a 6 yard touchdown.

-Nacarius Fant averages 12.8 yards per punt and leads the nation in punt returns for touchdowns (2).

-Jake Collins averages 42.7 yards per punt: never putting WKU in a terrible position.

-Skyler Simcox should and will remain the starting kicker after nailing a 50 yard FG against Houston Baptist, and has remained perfect on XP and FG since then.

The Blue Raiders come in at #103 in special teams efficiency.

Advantage: WKU


What to expect on Saturday

When you tally my unofficial position group predictions, WKU and MTSU are 3-3-1. This is a must win for two strong teams. Both teams will be in attack mode, and it is very doubtful we will see another 30 point margin of victory from either team.

MTSU's Alex Dale also told the Daily News Journal: "I think we're good enough to drive WKU off the field. I think we'll like the outcome in the end." The Blue Raiders can talk the talk, but can they walk the walk? The proof will be in the pudding.

Prediction

Both teams will have to show up on their A-game, because this is anyone's game. However, for the sake of my weekly prediction...

1st Half: 30-24

2nd Half: 17-21

MTSU wins 47-45

*Hides from social media...changes username...moves to California where I lead a new life.*

Here's to hoping I am wrong!

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