Analyzing the Enemy: MTSU (11/2/18)

Day: Friday, November 2

Time: 7:00PM CST

Location: Floyd Stadium

Network: CBSSN

Series Record: MTSU leads 33-32-1. In 2017, WKU defeated MTSU 41-38.

Betting Line: MTSU by 13.5

Quarterback

The Hilltoppers are all too familiar with Blue Raiders' Brent Stockstill. He is the program's all-time quarterback leader who has averaged 341.3 passing yards, a completion rate of 67.2%, and 2.3 touchdowns per matchup against WKU. This season, Stockstill is averaging 214.75 passing yards per game, a completion rate of 69.3%, 7.22 yards per pass attempt, and 1.9 touchdowns per game. He is fairly mobile with a total of 141 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns this season.

Meanwhile, freshman Davis Shanley remains WKU's starting quarterback. Against FIU, Shanley struggled: only throwing for 105 yards with a completion rate of 56.0% and 0 touchdowns. After FIU's Olin Cushion was ejected for targeting Shanley, Steven Duncan went in for Shanley and ran in a 1 yard touchdown. The Hilltoppers' next series saw Duncan pass for 39 yards and rush for 9 yards; D'Andre Ferby would post a 1 yard touchdown and Duncan would pass to tight end Kyle Fourtenbary for a 2 point conversion.

Despite continuity with who is starting, WKU has yet to find continuity in production.

Advantage: MTSU

Running Backs

This week is Halloween, so keeping with the theme...

WKU Football must be in a state of Stranger Things' "Upside Down World" (an alternate universe) as the passing game has been called into question and the struggling ground attack could be trending upward. The Tops have posted back-to-back 100+ yard games: 207 yards against ODU and 168 yards against FIU (in addition to a 4.5 yards per carry average). During those two games, Joshua Samuel was responsible for 170 rushing yards and 5.85 yards per carry.

Terelle West leads MTSU with 243 rushing yards, an average of 5.4 yards per carry, a long of 71 yards (TD), and 1 touchdown. Against Old Dominion, West saw his first 100+ yard game of the season and second of his career (120 yards, 9.2 yards per carry, and 1 touchdown). In their last two matchups/wins, the Blue Raider ground attack has averaged 120.5 rushing yards and 3.25 yards per carry.

Neither team has seen a dominant ground attack this season, but for WKU it has been a major improvement from 2017. For MTSU, there has been a bit of a step back (compared to last year's numbers).

Both team's rushing defenses are almost statistically identical.

Advantage: Tie

Receivers

Junior wideout Ty Lee leads the Blue Raiders with 382 receiving yards, 10.6 yards per reception, and 3 touchdowns. Additionally, Patrick Smith and running back/wideout Brad Anderson account for 300+ yards each.

Lucky Jackson still leads the Hilltoppers' receivers with 420 yards, 11.1 yards per reception, and 2 touchdowns. However, Jacquez Sloan is knocking at the door with 406 receiving yards and 15.0 yards per reception. The sophomore's emergence has been steady and he is proving to be a reliable option, especially on explosive plays. Last week, Sloan accounted for 69 receiving yards: 48.0% of the team's total receiving yards.

Hilltopper tight ends Kyle Fourtenbary and Mik'Quan Deane give the receiving corps an extra dimension. Deane is responsible for 263 yards, 10.5 yards per reception, and 4 touchdowns. Fourtenbary accounts for 250 yards, 8.3 yards per reception, and 2 touchdowns. Against FIU, Duncan passed to Fourtenbary for a two-point conversion to make the score 31-17.

Advantage: WKU

Offensive Line

Both ground attacks are averaging 3.6 yards per rush while MTSU is averaging only 1.6 more yards per game.

Both o-lines have allowed 21 sacks on the season (2.625 per game).

Ok, next.

Given each team's pass rush, MTSU's o-line will probably be more apt to withstand WKU's pass rush than the other way around.

Advantage: MTSU by a smidgen

Secondary

WKU's secondary is led by Devon Key and Ta'Corian Darden. Key has accumulated 52 total tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 1 interception, and 5 pass breakups. Darden accounts for 49 total tackles, 2.0 tackles for loss, 1 interception, 9 pass breakups, 2 quarterback hurries, and 1 forced fumble. According to the NCAA's "Passes Defended" leader board, Darden ranks in the top 35. On the season, the Tops have come up with 5 interceptions and 37 pass breakups.

Last week Blue Raiders' Reed Blankenship had a stellar game with 17 total tackles and returning an interception for a touchdown. On the season, Blankenship has 63 total tackles, 5.0 tackles for loss, 1.0 sack, 1 interception, and 2 pass breakups. Wesley Bush is responsible for 38 total tackles, 2.0 tackles for loss, 0.5 sacks, 3 interceptions, 2 pass breakups, and 1 quarterback hurry. On the season, MTSU has come up with 9 interceptions (1.125 per game) and 27 pass breakups.

Advantage: MTSU

Linebackers

Last week, WKU's Ben Holt put together a record-tying performance after accumulating 19 tackles: the most in the program's FBS tenure. The redshirt junior is responsible for 75 total tackles, 7.0 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, 3 pass breakups, 6 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 forced fumble. Masai White has 49 total tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 3.0 sacks, 1 interception, 2 pass breakups, and 1 quarterback hurry.

Darius Harris leads MTSU's linebacker corps with 58 total tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, 4.0 sacks, 3 pass breakups, 4 quarterback hurries, and 1 forced fumble. Khalil Brooks has accumulated 47 total tackles, 10.0 tackles for loss, 3.0 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 8 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 forced fumble. Closely behind is DQ Thomas with 41 total tackles, 8.0 tackles for loss, 5.0 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 2 quarterback hurries, and 1 fumble recovery.

The Blue Raiders' linebackers are very efficient and will likely put a lot of pressure on Shanley to make quick decisions and not allow him any time in the pocket.

Advantage: MTSU

Defensive Line

DeAngelo Malone leads the Hilltopper line with 37 total tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, 1 interception, and 6 quarterback hurries. Juwuan Jones accounts for 25 total tackles, 4.0 tackles for loss, 3.0 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 3 quarterback hurries, and 1 forced fumble.

Trae Philpots leads MTSU's defensive line with 27 total tackles, 5.0 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, and 1 quarterback hurry.

Advantage: WKU

Special Teams

WKU's kicking woes continue. Ryan Nuss and Alex Rinella are each 3-of-6 on FGs. Likewise, MTSU's Crews Holt is 4-of-8 on FGs.

Rinella is, also, on punting duties and averages 35.39 yards per punt with 13 inside the 20 yard line. Blue Raiders' Matt Bonadies averages 43.97 yards per punt with 16 inside the 20.

Advantage: MTSU

Prediction

While WKU is looking at their worst record since 2010, MTSU is 2nd in C-USA East. It is hard to see WKU’s three-win streak against MTSU (2015-17) carrying any weight. WKU is playing for pride as a bowl game is off the table. MTSU is playing to become bowl eligible. Sure, the rivalry has seen four games go into overtime since 2010 (most recently 2016 and 2017). However, there is a glaring mismatch between the two teams this season.

MTSU 40
WKU 21