Day: Saturday, October 15

Time: 2:30PM CST

Location: Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

Network: ESPN+

Betting line: WKU -8.0 | O/U: 67.0

History: The "100 Miles of Hate" series is currently split evenly, 35-35-1. WKU has won the last three games. In 2021, the Tops defeated the Blue Raiders by a score of 48-21, and came away with six interceptions and one pick six.

Quarterbacks

Through six games, Reed is 178-of-248 (71.77%) for 2,036 yards (339.33 YPG), 8.2 yards per pass attempt, has 19 touchdowns (3.2 per game), 4 interceptions, and a QBR of 68.4. During the UTSA game, the Roadrunners struck first with a Frank Harris/quarterback keeper. WKU responded with a 12-yard run and a 2-yard rushing touchdown, both from Reed. He finished the game 35-of-49 (71.4%) for 373 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 11 carries, 43 yards, 3.9 yards per carry, and 1 rushing touchdown. Reed is, now, #3 nationally in total passing yards, #4 in passing touchdowns, and #8 in completion rate. Of quarterbacks with at least 175 pass attempts, Reed ranks #7 in EPA and #7 in explosive play rate.

MTSU's Chase Cunningham is 146-of-219 (66.7%) for 1,564 yards, (260.7 YPG), 7.14 yards per pass attempt, has 9 passing touchdowns (1.5 per game), 2 rushing touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and a QBR of 57.0. Cunningham took over the starting job in 2021, but suffered a season-ending injury before playing WKU.

Reed has been consistent game to game while Cunningham's performance varies. At Cunningham's best, he went 16-of-25 for 408 yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 1 rushing touchdown, and a QBR of 90.8 against Miami. At his worst, he went 18-of-32 for 110 yards, 1 touchdown, and a QBR of 12.2 against James Madison.

Advantage: WKU

Running Backs

WKU has 177 carries (29.5 per game) for 846 net yards (141.0 YPG), 4.8 yards per carry, and 9 rushing touchdowns. Kye Robichaux leads the running back room with 60 carries, 380 net yards, 6.3 yards per carry, and 2 touchdowns. Prior to the UTSA game, WKU seemed to opt for a running back by committee approach between Robichaux, Davion Ervin-Poindexter, and Jakairi Moses. However, against the Roadrunners, only Robichaux and Reed contributed to the ground game with 24 carries, 108 net yards, 4.5 yards per carry, and 2 touchdowns.

MTSU's Frank Peasant is the most utilized player on each down, which includes first, second, third, standard, passing, and overall. On the season, Peasant has 76 carries for 342 net yards, 4.5 yards per carry, and 6 touchdowns. 36.0% of his yardage and 50.0% of his touchdowns come from the Tennessee State game on September 17. Darius Bracy adds 31 carries for 116 net yards, 3.7 yards per carry, and 2 touchdowns. The ground attack has 207 total carries (34.5 per game) for 672 net yards (112.0 YPG), 3.2 yards per carry, and 10 rushing touchdowns.

Both teams are going to do more through the air, but advanced stats like success rate, EPA, rush stuff rate, and line yards lean advantage Tops.

Advantage: WKU

Receivers

Of receivers and tight ends with at least 30 receptions, WKU's Daewood Davis ranks among the nation's Top 5 in explosive play rate (EPA > 2.4). He's Reed's go-to threat with 42 receptions, 596 yards, 14.2 yards per catch, 5 touchdowns, and three 100+ yard games. Malachi Corley and Michael Mathison are just as dangerous. Corley makes big, clutch plays down the stretch and, often, elicits a level of shock value and gasps from the crowd. Corley has 35 receptions for 427 yards, 12.2 yards per catch, and 5 touchdowns while Mathison has quietly emerged on the scene with 31 receptions for 300 yards, 9.7 yards per catch, and 2 touchdowns. The Hilltoppers' tight ends were noticeably quiet against UTSA and Troy, but Josh Simon and Joey Beljan are key playmakers and red zone threats.

Like WKU's Reed-Davis-Corley, there's an obvious connection between Cunningham, Jaylin Lane, and Izaiah Gathings. Lane headlines the receiving unit with 30 receptions for 469 yards, 15.6 yards per catch, and 2 touchdowns. Gathings is MTSU's most reliable receiver with 92.3% of targets caught and has 36 receptions for 310 yards, and 8.6 yards per catch. DJ England-Chisolm was out last week, but it would be criminal not to mention his 2.0 receptions for 169 yards, 84.5 yards per reception, and 2 touchdowns vs. Miami.

Both teams have a talented receiver room, but WKU's entire passing game is more stable and can do more consistent damage downfield.

Advantage: WKU

Offensive Line

Heading into Week 7, WKU's offensive line ranks #4 nationally in pass blocking with a PFF grade of 86.0 and ranks #90 in run blocking with a 56.2. The o-line has allowed 25.0 tackles, 8.0 sacks, and 9 quarterback hurries. Of linemen with a minimum 100 offensive snaps, tackle Gunner Britton and guard Quantavious Leslie rank #11 and #12, respectively,

MTSU's o-line has allowed 51.0 tackles for loss, 14.0 sacks, and 16 quarterback hurries. They rank #122 in pass blocking with a PFF grade of 39.6and #131 in run blocking with a 39.8.

The Tops will face a solid MTSU defensive line - and will be shifting players around - but WKU's d-line is quietly effective and could exploit the Blue Raiders' issues at offensive line.

Advantage: WKU

Secondary

On the season, WKU's secondary has allowed 140-of-227 pass attempts (61.2%) for 1,469 yards, (244.83 per game), 6.47 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdowns, and account for 7-of-9 interceptions as well as 16-of-20 pass breakups. Last year, WKU forced six interceptions against MTSU; however, that was with Cunningham out. Kahlef Hailassie leads the DBs with 36.0 total tackles, 5.0 tackles for loss, 3.0 sacks, 1 interception, 6 pass breakups, and 1 quarterback hurry. Kaleb Oliver adds 28 total tackles, 2 interceptions, and 1 pass breakup.

WKU has been reliable in coverage but, once again, the Tops will have to face a talented receiving unit. MTSU might largely utilize Peasant per down, but if Cunningham can connect with Lane, it could pose a problem

MTSU's secondary has allowed 130-of-207 pass attempts (62.8%) for 1,700 yards (283.33 per game), 8.21 yards per pass attempt, and 14 touchdowns as well as forced 6-of-9 interceptions. Teldrick Ross and Tra Fluellen lead the DBs and defense in total tackles. The combo of Ross, Fluellen, and Decorian Patterson account for 117 total tackles, 3.0 tackles for loss, 5 interceptions (4 to Patterson), 9 pass breakups, and 1 quarterback hurry. In conference play - against UTSA and UAB - MTSU has allowed 45-of-64 pass attempts (70.3%) for 701 yards (350.5 YPG), 11.0 yards per pass attempt (15.6 yards per catch), 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.

Advantage: WKU

Linebackers

JaQues Evans, Derrick Smith, and Will Ignont lead the linebacking corps and defense with a combined 112 total tackles, 10.0 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks, 1 interception, 3 pass breakups, 2 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 forced fumble. Despite the Roadrunners rushing over 200+ yards, there were no runs of more than 14 yards.

The Blue Raiders' Devyn Curtis, Raquon Hartley, and Christian Dixon combine for 78 total tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, 7 quarterback hurries, and 1 forced fumble. Jalen Davis adds 19 total tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, 1 interception, and 1 forced fumble.

Advantage: Even

Defensive Line

WKU's defensive line has totaled 88 total tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, 4.0 sacks, 1 pick-six, and 16 quarterback hurries. Juwuan Jones leads the group with 25 total tackles, 3.0 tackle for loss, 1.5 sacks, 1 pick six, and 2 quarterback hurries. Terrion Thompson has 11 total tackles, 3.0 tackles for loss, 1.0 sack, and 2 quarterback hurries. The Tops' rushing defense has allowed 236 carries for 780 yards (130.0 per game), 3.3 yards per carry, and 8 touchdowns. Against UTSA, individually, everyone did their part. However, the Tops were unable to bring enough consistent pressure to thwart QB Frank Harris and, also, gave up 200+ yards rushing.

The Blue Raiders have allowed 234 carries for 842 yards, 140.3 yards per game, 3.6 yards per carry, and 10 rushing touchdowns. But their bread and butter is dialing up pressure. They've totaled 141 total tackles, 29.5 tackles for loss, 14.5 sacks, 3 interceptions, 8 pass breakups, 4 quarterback hurries, 3 fumble recoveries, and 4 forced fumbles. Jordan Ferguson has 34.0 total tackles, 6.0 tackles for loss, 3.0 sacks, 3 pass breakups, 1 quarterback hurry, and 2 forced fumbles. In CUSA, MTSU leads in total sacks as well as red zone defense.

Advantage: MTSU

Special Teams

Punter Tom Ellard punted 19 times for 838 yards, 44.11 yards per punt, with 7 landing inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Brayden Narveson is 7-of-10 on field goal attempts and 32-of-32 on extra point kicks. Upton Stout has returned 5 punts for 29 yards (5.8 yards per return) and Michael Mathison has 5 kick returns for 120 yards and 24.0 yards per return.

MTSU punter Kyle Ulbrich has punted 31 times for 1388 yards, 44.77 yards per punt, and has 10 punts land inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Zeke Rankin is 6-of-6 on field goal attempts and 23-of-23 on extra point kicks. Lane has 7 punt returns for 70 yards and 10.0 yards per return. He also leads kickoff returns with 7 returns for 164 yards, and 23.43 yards per return. Ferguson and Sudderth add 2 blocked kicks.

Advantage: MTSU

Since 2011, the 100 Miles of Hate Rivalry has gone into overtime four times. Both teams are 3-3, have lost their last two games, and are itching to get back into the win column. It will likely be a heated back n' forth contest, but WKU - without stepping on their own feet - has the tools necessary (and a few tricks up their sleeve) to outlast MTSU.

WKU - 37
MTSU - 28

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