Day: Saturday, October 3

Game Time: 4:00PM CST

Location: Floyd Stadium

Network: ESPN3

Series Record: MTSU leads the "100 Miles of Hate" rivalry 35-33-1. WKU has won four of the last five matchups. Last year, the Hilltoppers defeated the Blue Raiders by a score of 31-26.

Betting Line: WKU -7 | O/U: 54

Quarterbacks

During the Liberty game, "Piggy" went 18-of-25 (72%) for 181 yards, 7.24 yards per pass, and 3 passing touchdowns. He also had 14 carries for 74 yards and 5.3 yards per carry. Statistically, he had a drastically different and higher-graded game than against Louisville. However, two games is still an incredibly small sample size and there are still plenty of unknowns. During the bye-week, consistency and decision-making were likely topics-of-conversation.

With one more game under MTSU's belt, quarterback Asher O'Hara has gone 56-of-84 (66.7%) for 527 yards, 6.3 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. He's a gutsy, physical quarterback who fights for the yards. In last week's loss to UTSA, O'Hara went 31-of-47 (66.0%) for 372 yards, 7.9 yards per pass attempt, and threw for 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Until that game, O'Hara uncharacteristically struggled on the ground as well as through the air.

Piggy comes out with the higher passer rating when clean, higher passer rating under pressure, higher big-time throw percentage, and lower turnover-worthy pass play percentage. Additionally, he's got the better o-line to protect him.

But as seen against Louisville and Liberty, WKU's defense has had difficulty defending, both, the quarterback run and deep ball.

Neither quarterback has shown enough consistency to yield a clear advantage over the other.

Advantage: Even

Receivers

Before the season, the Hilltoppers lost Jacquez Sloan. Then, during the bye-week, it was announced that wide receiver Jahcour Pearson was no longer with the team. His departure affects depth. Still with the team are receivers Mitchel Tinsley, Craig Burt Jr., Dayton Wade and Xavier Lane as well as tight ends Joshua Simon and Dalvin Smith. Tinsley leads the team with 9 receptions for 107 yards, 11.89 yards per reception, and a pair of touchdowns. He's been an apparent early-on playmaker and even featured on ESPN's "You've Got Mossed" for his 36-yard reception that was caught over a defender for a touchdown. Ability is no question with those receivers remaining. As seen against Liberty, once WKU fed their playmakers, the win probability increased.

Leading the Blue Raiders is receiver and favored target Jarrin Pierce who has 22 receptions for 221 yards (10.0 yards per reception). Against UTSA, he had 7 receptions for 107 yards. In addition to Pierce, MTSU has plenty of weapons between receivers DJ England-Chisolm, Yusuf Ali, and Jimmy Marshall. Like the Tops, when MTSU finally feeds the ball to guys like Pierce, they look more competitive and stay in games.

Advantage: Even

Running Backs

Neither team has had much luck establishing the run (with exception to MTSU vs. UTSA). Both teams' dual-threat quarterbacks lead their respective squad in carries and yards...and that is saying a lot since, for the most part, O'Hara's ground game - his typical strength - has been subpar.

For WKU, just last season, Gaej Walker eclipsed 1,000 yards; but through 2 games, he's averaging 10 carries, 26.5 yards per game, and 2.7 yards per carry. Allowing Walker to carry the load (whilst addressing the lack of positive yardage on first down) could be the turning point. Thus far, WKU hasn't been successful with Piggy running the ball as much as he has. Piggy has to get comfortable with beating teams with his arm; otherwise, teams will just continue stacking the box.

Likewise, the Blue Raiders need someone to emerge to take some of the pressure off of O'Hara. The ground game did find some life against UTSA between Jayy McDonald, Chaton Mobley, and O'Hara. Combined, they rushed for 191 yards. Through the first two games, the Blue Raiders totaled 162 rushing yards.

Advantage: MTSU

Offensive Line

This week, PFF College ranked WKU as having the ninth-best offensive line after Week 4. PFF's Anthony Treash writes: "The Hilltoppers' offensive line is easily among the five best in the Group of Five. Only Clemson’s offensive line has played more pass-block snaps without allowing a sack or hit (68, Western Kentucky at 56). That’s helped them produce the sixth-best team pass-block grade in college football. And they’ve done that with perhaps their best offensive lineman, Cole Spencer, not playing up to his usual level."

The line has been with its obvious flaws and missteps, but against Liberty, the o-line statistically improved from the Louisville game.

MTSU has a big, viable veteran o-line, but has not exactly lived up to expectations throughout the years or presently. Through three games, MTSU has allowed 20.0 tackles for loss, 5.0 sacks, and 11 quarterback hurries. Should they block better, and if WKU's defense continues to show vulnerability, O'Hara could be lethal.

Advantage: WKU

Defensive Backs

WKU's passing defense and running defense flip-flopped between the Louisville and Liberty games. Against Louisville, the secondary was burned deep and had a difficult time defending the pass. In week 2, the defensive front was torched on the ground. Liberty's Malik Willis didn't have to air it out when he could get the job done with his feet. O'Hara has made some questionable throws that have resulted in 5 interceptions. This might be good news for a WKU secondary that only has 1 takeaway on the season. Overall, blown coverage is still one of the biggest concerns on this defense.

MTSU's passing defense has allowed 52-of-85 (61.2%), 196.7 yards per game, 6.9 yards per pass attempt, and 5 touchdowns. Additionally, they've had 2 takeaways this season.

Despite WKU's lack of offensive production, the silver-lining is that Piggy has not thrown an interception, yet. If WKU decides to me more aggressive in the passing game, free safety Reed Blankenship - a threat in the open field and good tackler - could be chomping at the bit to pick-off Piggy.

Advantage: Even

Linebackers

WKU's Kyle Bailey, Eli Brown, and Damon Lowe have combined for 33 total tackles and 3.0 tackles for loss. Brown has had individual, notable moments but the unit has been rather pedestrian and have graded on the low-end per PFF. They are, typically, a solid group if they remain healthy.

MTSU's DQ Thomas, Brett Shepherd, and Cody Smith have combined for 41 total tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 3.0 sacks, 3 pass breakups, 2 quarterback hurries, and 1 forced fumble. Statistically, they've been more productive than WKU.

Advantage: MTSU

Defensive Line

Last week, WKU allowed 354 rushing yards (nearly 500 yards through two games). QB Malik Willis was responsible for 168 (47.5%) of those yards and forced 14 missed tackles on his rushing attempts. The lack of production was not typical of WKU's defensive line, and star end DeAngelo Malone had a "quiet" day with 9 total tackles and 0.5 tackles for loss. As it was the case last season, O'Hara's strength is in his legs. Against the Tops in 2019, O'Hara had 29 carries for 144 yards.

Through three games, MTSU has allowed an average of 222.7 rushing yards per game, 4.6 yards per carry, and 10 rushing touchdowns. They haven't been overwhelmingly productive in terms of the pass rush, either. A veteran WKU o-line and Piggy making better decisions could give the Blue Raider d-line fits.

Advantage: WKU

Special Teams

WKU's John Haggerty continues to be a bright spot on the team, averaging 47.0 yards per punt with 4 punts inside of the 20. Kicker Brayden Narveson has gone 1-of-1 on FG attempts and 6-of-6 on extra point kicks. Dayton Wade has averaged 16.0 yards on 7 kick returns. Omari Alexander and Dayton Wade each have 1 punt return: Alexander for 23 yards and Wade for -1 yards.

MTSU's Kyle Ulbrich has averaged 41.58 yards per punt with 4 punts inside of the 20. Kicker Crews Holt has gone 1-of-1 on FG attempts and 4-of-4 on extra point kicks. Between Jaylin Lane, Jayy McDonald, and Quincy Riley, the kick return game has averaged 17.67 yards on 9 kick returns. Lane and Riley averaged 5.33 yards on 3 punt returns.

Advantage: WKU

In more ways than their winless start, WKU and MTSU face some similar situations on both sides of the ball, and both teams showed signs of improvement and life in their last loss. WKU has the added advantage of a timely bye-week, but MTSU has home field advantage (19-14-1 when playing "100 Miles of Hate" at home). WKU might be considered the better, more talented team on paper, but this rivalry has taught us that anything goes.