Analyzing the Enemy: North Texas Mean Green (10/29/22)

Day: Saturday, October 29

Time: 2:30PM CST

Location: Houchens Industries–L. T. Smith Stadium

Network: Stadium

Betting line: WKU -10 | O/U: 70

History: The series is tied 4-4. This will be the Hilltoppers and Mean Green's first meeting since 2016.

Quarterbacks

WKU's Austin Reed is 224-of-318 (70.4%) for 2,442 yards (305.25 YPG), 7.7 yards per pass attempt, has 21 touchdowns (2.6 per game), 5 interceptions, and a QBR of 68.4. Facing one of the best coverages in college football, WKU's offense had to adjust. Going into the game, Reed averaged 42 pass attempts and 330.6 yards per game. During the UAB game, Reed went 14-of-23 (61.0%) for 128 yards, and 5.6 yards per pass attempt. But his two rushing touchdowns allowed the Tops to, first, tie things up in the second quarter, and then take the lead in the third quarter. Although uncharacteristic of a WKU quarterback to run, Reed has proven he is an aggressive playmaker who can be versatile when needed.

UNT's Austin Aune is 125-of-227 (55.1%) for 2,017 yards, (252.1 YPG), 8.8 yards per pass attempt, has 20 passing touchdowns (2.5 per game), 9 interceptions, and a QBR of 69.3. Against UTSA, Aune went 15-of-31 (48.4%) for 325 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. The Mean Green have a capable passing game, but when the run game is stifled and the offense is forced to pass, they are not as efficient or explosive.

Advantage: WKU

Running Backs

WKU has 257 carries (32.1 per game) for 1,235 net yards (154.4 YPG), 4.8 yards per carry, and 13 rushing touchdowns. Kye Robichaux leads the running back room with 68 carries, 458 net yards, 6.7 yards per carry, and 3 touchdowns. An injury during the MTSU game sidelined him during the UAB game. Cue the force that is L.T. Sanders. During the UAB game, Sanders had 16 carries for 120 yards and 7.5 yards per carry. It is not clear if Robichaux will return this Saturday or not.

Like last week, the Tops' defense will face a team whose success mostly hinges on the run. Ayo Adeyi and Oscar Adaway III might not be UAB's powerhouse DeWayne McBride, but they are an extremely talented duo. The two combine for 180 attempts, 1,107 yards, 6.15 yards per rush, and 7 touchdowns. Give them an inch, and they'll pave the way to 348, 300, and 475 yards on the ground. It should be no surprise that the top two rushing offenses in the conference are UAB and North Texas.

UNT is averaging 222.6 yards yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry. However, 63.1% of UNT's rushing yards and 76.9% of rushing touchdowns come against Texas Southern (FCS), FAU, and Louisiana Tech. In all other games, the Mean Green are 1-4 and averaging 131.6 rushing yards and 3.7 yards per carry. Last week, UNT rushed 21 times for 22 yards, 1.05 yards per carry, and a long of 5 yards. Simply put, teams that have been able to minimize UNT's run game have come out victorious.

There are a lot of points to consider. Will Robichaux be back? Will Sanders find success again? Clearly Adeyi and Adaway are big time playmakers; can WKU's respectable rushing defense be able to hold the duo at bay? Considering UNT's rushing defense allows a success rate of 53.0% and 0.308 EPA per rush...

Advantage: WKU

Receivers

Daewood Davis leads the Tops' receiver room with 47 receptions for 636 yards, 13.5 yards per catch and 5 touchdowns. Malachi Corley is close behind with 50 receptions for 604 yards, 12.1 yards per catch, and 6 touchdowns. Prior to and after the UAB game, the Blazers ranked #2 in PFF's grade for coverage. In a drastic response, WKU rushed for 44 times and had 14 total receptions. Corley led with 5 receptions for 77 yards while Davis accounted for 3 receptions and 26 yards. North Texas goes into this matchup ranked #82 in coverage, so it is likely that the Tops find more of a balance between the run and the pass.

Leading UNT receivers is Roderic Burns with 28 receptions for 541 yards, 19.32 yards per catch, and 1 touchdowns. His 139 yards against UTSA account for 25.7% of his receiving yards. But Jyaire Shorter and tight ends Var'Keyes Gumms and Jake Roberts are three playmakers to keep an eye on. Shorter has 15 receptions for 350 yards, 23.3 yards per catch, and 6 touchdowns. In the past two games, Shorter only has 1 reception per game, but for 51 and 58 yards, respectively. That kind of explosiveness can be incredibly timely and easily primes the offense to score. Gumms and Roberts combine for 29 receptions, 508 yards, 17.5 yards per catch, and 6 touchdowns. In the close loss to UTSA, they combined for 4 receptions for 111 yards and 1 touchdown each. Tight end play usually yields mismatches that WKU's defense will have to be aware of.

Aune may not be incredibly accurate, but WKU will have to respect the pass. When Aune connects with his receivers, he averages an average depth of target (ADOT) of 12.5 yards: good for fifth most in the nation (of passers with a minimum 100 passing attempts).

Advantage: WKU

Offensive Line

Heading into Week 9, WKU's offensive line ranks #4 nationally in pass blocking with a PFF grade of 84.5 and ranks #66 in run blocking with a 60.5. The o-line has allowed 32.0 tackles for loss, 9.0 sacks, and 11 quarterback hurries.

UNT's o-line has allowed 35.0 tackles for loss, 8.0 sacks, and 22 quarterback hurries. They rank #88 in pass blocking with a PFF grade of 59.3 and #36 in run blocking with a 68.3.

Advantage: WKU

Secondary

On the season, WKU's secondary has allowed 177-of-290 pass attempts (61.0%) for 1,793 yards, (224.13 per game), 6.2 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdowns, and account for 9-of-11 interceptions as well as 22-of-29 pass breakups. Kahlef Hailassie - a playmaker all over the field - leads the DBs with 48 total tackles, 8.0 tackles for loss, 3.0 sacks, 2 interceptions, 8 pass breakups, 1 quarterback hurry, 1 fumble recovery, and 2 forced fumbles. With 5 total tackles, 0.5 tackles for loss, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 key interception, Hailassie earned CUSA's Defensive Player of the Week for his performance against UAB. Kaleb Oliver adds 36 total tackles, 0.5 tackle for loss, 2 interceptions, 1 pass breakup, and 1 quarterback hurry. Despite allowing two early passing touchdowns vs. UAB, the Tops ultimately made the Blazers passing game a non-factor: allowing just 5-of-12 pass attempts (41.6%) for 96 yards and 1 interception.

UNT's secondary has allowed 184-of-294 pass attempts (62.6%) for 2,267 yards (283.4 per game), 7.71 yards per pass attempt, and 16 touchdowns as well as forced 4-of-4 interceptions. Allowing such only plays into WKU's favor. DeShawn Gaddie, Quinn Whitlock, Keelan Crosby, and Ridge Texada combine for 117 total tackles, 3.0 tackles for loss, 4 interceptions, 20 pass breakups, 6 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 forced fumble.

Advantage: WKU

Linebackers

JaQues Evans, Derrick Smith, and Will Ignont lead the linebacking corps and defense with a combined 148 total tackles, 12.0 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks, 1 interception, 6 pass breakups, 2 quarterback hurries, 2 fumble recoveries, and 1 forced fumble. Against UAB, Evans, Jaden Hunter, and Smith combined for 20 total tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 pass breakup.

One of UNT's best qualities, defensively, is its pass rush: ranking #49 with a PFF grade of 75.8. KD Davis, Larry Nixon III, Mazin Richards, and Sean-Thomas Faulkner lead the entire defense with 233 total tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks, 4 pass breakups, 8 quarterback hurries, and 1 forced fumble. Davis leads in tackles with 84 while Richards leads in tackles for loss (8.5) and sacks (6.5). Against UTSA, Mean Green linebackers totaled 5.0 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks.

WKU's #4 pass blocking has been able to withstand pressure, but North Texas won't make it easy.

Advantage: UNT

Defensive Line

WKU's Juwuan Jones leads the group with 30 total tackles, 3.0 tackle for loss, 1.5 sacks, 1 pick six, 2 quarterback hurries, and 1 fumble recovery. Terrion Thompson has 14 total tackles, 3.0 tackles for loss, 1.0 sack, and 2 quarterback hurries. Brodric Martin came up big against UAB with 3 total tackles, 1.0 tackle for loss, 1.0 sack, and 1 forced fumble. The Tops' rushing defense leads the conference and has allowed 301 carries for 1,071 yards (133.9 per game), 3.6 yards per carry, and 9 touchdowns.

The Mean Green have allowed 325 carries for 1,508 yards, 188.5 yards per game, 4.6 yards per carry, and 15 rushing touchdowns. Fatafehi Vailea leads with 28.0 total tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, 0.5 sacks, 1 quarterback hurry, and 1 forced fumble. Defensive tackle Roderick Brown has 4.0 tackles for loss and 4.0 sacks. A stuff rate of 8.8% and nearly 4.0 line yards could mean the Tops' rushing attack gets things rolling and opens up the passing game.

Advantage: WKU

Special Teams

Punter Tom Ellard has punted 29 times for 1,247 yards, 43.0 yards per punt, with 12 landing inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Brayden Narveson is 9-of-13 on field goal attempts and 39-of-39 on extra point kicks. Upton Stout and Jaylen Hall combine for 9 punt returns for 83 yards (9.2 yards per return) and Michael Mathison has 8 kick returns for 173 yards and 21.63 yards per return.

UNT punter Bernardo Rodriguez has punted 30 times for 1,210 yards, 40.33 yards per punt, and has 9 punts land inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Ethan Mooney is 12-of-13 on field goal attempts and 31-of-31 on extra point kicks. Burns has 9 punt returns for 45 yards and 5.0 yards per return. Kaylon Horton has 14 kick returns for 378 yards and 27.0 yards per return, and 1 return touchdown during the UNLV game.

Advantage: UNT

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Don't confuse the number of "Advantage: WKU" for a blowout or assured win. UNT ranks #23 in yards per game and #13 in yards per play. When their offense is able to run full tilt, they average 50.3 points per game and give up 27.3 points per game.

Both teams enter the matchup 3-1 in conference. Their lone conference loss? UTSA. With such record and both in CUSA's top 4 standings, there is a lot at stake.

WKU - 35

UNT - 24

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