Day: Saturday, October 16

Time: 2:30PM CST

Location: S.B. Ballard Stadium

Network: ESPN3

Betting line: WKU -12.5 | O/U: 67.0

History: This will be the seventh meeting between WKU and ODU. The Hilltoppers' lead the series matchup 5-1. In 2020, WKU defeated ODU by a score of 20-3.

Quarterbacks

Through five games, WKU's Bailey Zappe has completed 171-of-243 pass attempts (70.4%) for 2,235 yards, 447 yards per game, 9.2 yards per pass attempt, and 21 touchdowns as well as and 3 interceptions. He ranks #2 in total passing yards, #1 in passing yards per game, #9 in completion percentage, tied for #2 in passing touchdowns, and boasts the tenth-best passer rating in the nation. In the conference, Zappe ranks #1 across the board: total passing yards, passing yards per game, quarterback rating, touchdowns, and completion percentage. He has one of the best EPAs and EPA/plays in the country and ranks #1 in PFF's Highest passing grades on deep pass attempts (98.8). Additionally, the passing game has a 54.0% success rate, PPA of 0.53, and explosiveness of 1.52.

Against UTSA , Zappe completed 38-of-60 pass attempts (63.3%) for 523 yards, 8.7 yards per pass attempt, and 5 touchdowns as well as 1 interception. After his Game 5 performance, Zappe was named to the Davey O'Brien Great 8 List. A rarity among college quarterbacks, Zappe is equal parts calm, explosive, quick, and consistent...all while posting astounding numbers and keeping the team in the game.

D.J. Mack Jr. leads the Monarchs having completed 86-of-167 pass attempts (51.5%) for 859 yards, 143.2 yards per game, 5.1 yards per pass attempt, and 5 touchdowns as well as 7 interceptions. In last week's OT loss to Marshall, Mack completed 9-of-22 pass attempts (40.9%) for 106 yards, 4.8 yards per pass, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. The mobile Mack also has 72 carries for 177 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns. The passing game has a success rate of 37.8%, PPA of 0.1, and explosiveness of 1.38.

Advantage: WKU

Receivers

Equally impressive as Zappe are the slew of reliable and explosive receivers at his fingertips. His go-to guy, Jerreth Sterns, ranks #3 nationally in total yards (741.0), #1 in receiving yards per game (148.2), tied at #3 in receiving touchdowns (7), #2 in total receptions (56), and #1 in receptions per game (11.2). Last week, Sterns amassed 16 receptions for 195 yards, 12.2 yards per reception, and 2 touchdowns. But the Hilltoppers' Air Raid attack likes to spread the ball out to multiple guys. Mitchell Tinsley has 26 receptions for 448 yards, 17.2 yards per reception, and 3 touchdowns. Malachi Corley has 29 receptions for 286 yards, 9.9 yards per reception, and 3 touchdowns. Daewood Davis and Craig Burt Jr. combine for 20 receptions, 417 yards, 20.85 yards per reception, and 3 touchdowns. Dalvin Smith and tight end Joey Beljan have started to become notable playmakers, as well, with 2 touchdowns each. As a unit, the receiving corps averages 13.3 yards per reception, 8 receivers have at least 1 touchdown, and ranks #17 in PFF's Grade for Pass Routes. Sterns, Tinsley, and Davis rank among the Top 50 in PFF's Grade for Pass Routes of 20+ Yards. WKU's opponents have proven that they inevitably know what is to come, but it is simply too difficult to stop the multi-headed beast that is the Hilltoppers' receiving corps.

ODU's receiver corps is led by tight end Zack Kuntz as well as wideout Ali Jennings III and quarterback-turned-receiver Stone Smartt. Kuntz leads with 27 receptions, 262 yards, 9.7 yards per reception, and 2 touchdowns. Jennings accounts for 16 receptions, 211 yards, 13.2 yards per reception, and 2 touchdowns. And through three games, Smartt has 12 receptions for 117 yards and 9.8 yards per reception. There's some issues surrounding inexperience, depth, and cohesion, but the unit as a whole is going through some restructuring pains. During the offseason, Kuntz transferred from Penn State while Jennings transferred from West Virginia. Otherwise, the next leading receivers (aside from Smartt and tight end Isaiah Spencer) are freshmen.

Advantage: WKU

Running Backs

Against UTSA, WKU ran at a 32.5% clip: keeping pace with their season average (and typical of an Air Raid offense). Until that game, the Hilltoppers' ground game had one game of 100+ yards. Not breaking 100 was (and is not) of concern considering 1) they made the most of each carry with a non-adjusted success rate around 60.0% and 2) huge yardage was coming through the air. However, last Saturday, the ground game had 29 carries (6.5 more than their average) for 147 yards, 5.1 yards per carry, 1 rushing touchdown, and a non-adjusted success rate of 75.0%. Now through five games, the Tops' have 119 carries for 463 yards (92.6 yards per game), 3.9 yards per carry, and 4 rushing touchdowns. Leading rushers Noah Whittington and Adam Cofield are averaging 5.5 and 4.6 yards per carry, respectively. On the season, the ground game has a success rate of 58.0% (adjusted), PPA of 0.14, and explosiveness of 0.645.

While the numbers might be lacking through the air, most of ODU's productivity comes from their ground game. The Monarchs run at a 57.0% rate and have totaled 256 carries for 1,075 yards (179.2 yards per game), 4.2 yards per carry, and 10 touchdowns. Leading rusher Blake Watson has 67 carries for 339 yards, 5.1 yards per carry, and 1 touchdown. Against Marshall, Watson had an impressive game of 26 carries for 168 yards, and 6.5 yards per carry. Elijah Davis has 50 carries for 278 yards, 5.6 yards per carry, and 2 touchdowns. Jon-Luke Peaker adds 33 carries for 184 yards, 5.6 yards per carry, and 1 touchdown. Sprinkle in Mack's mobility, and the ground attack may be a tall task for the Hilltoppers' rushing dense to completely shut down. Nonetheless, they will attempt to do so and force Mack into more passing situations with the goal of exploiting his proclivity to inconsistent play. On the season, the Monarchs' ground game has a success rate 45.5%, PPA of 0.14, and explosiveness of 1.03.

Advantage: ODU

Offensive Line

Pass blocking has been a staple in the Hilltoppers' success through the air. Currently, WKU ranks #3 in PFF's Grade for Passing Blocking with an 83.7. Zappe & Co. are dangerous by themselves and only made more efficient and explosive by way of the front five buying the them time and room. After ranking #74 in PFF's Grade for Run Blocking, WKU jumped to #45 after their Game 5 performance: providing the ground attack lanes to pick up 5.0+ yards per carry. WKU's o-line allows a stuff rate of 13.6%.

In part a reflection of Mack's mobile tendencies, ODU's o-line has allowed 19 sacks. Their pass blocking ranks #95 with a PFF Grade of 51.0. Their run block ranks #93 with a PFF Grade of 59.3. ODU's o-line allows a stuff rate of 17.1%.

Advantage: WKU

Secondary

On the season, WKU's secondary has allowed 109-of-171 pass attempts (63.7%) for 1,344 yards (268.8 yards per game), 7.86 yards per pass attempt, and 10 passing touchdowns (2.0 passing touchdowns per game). They've allowed a success rate of 45.4%, PPA of 0.337, and explosiveness of 1.45 . Prior to the UTSA game, the Tops had 1 pick from Game 1. However, last Saturday, A.J. Brathwaite Jr. came up with a pick as the Roadrunners were at the Hilltoppers' 26-yard line (then, returned for 5-yards and QB Frank Harris forced the fumble to give the ball back to UTSA). WKU's rushing defense will aim to contain ODU's ground attack and force Mack into uncharacteristic passing situations; the secondary cannot let big plays get past them. ODU is fairly even keel in terms of time of possession, so turnovers will be key versus their run-heavy offense and undoubtedly give WKU an advantage given their high-octane offense.

Antwon Kincade, A.J. Brathwaite Jr., Kahlef Hailassie, Kaleb Oliver, Beanie Bishop, and Omari Alexander combine for 122 total tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 1.0 sack, 1-of-2 interceptions, 8 pass breakups, and 1 forced fumble. WKU ranks #105 in coverage with a PFF Grade of 57.4.

Through six games, the Monarchs have allowed 103-of-166 pass attempts (62.0%) for 1,194 yards (199.0 yards per game), and 13 touchdowns as well as forced 2 interceptions. They've allowed a success rate of 41.7%, PPA of 0.301, and explosiveness of 1.5. ODU opponents have averaged 27.6 pass attempts per game as well as 7.2 yards per pass attempt; now, they will face an aerial attack that averages 49.0 pass attempts per game as well as 9.3 yards per pass attempt. Not only does ODU's secondary have to prepare for a 77.5% increase in pass attempts, they have to prepare for WKU's highly efficient and explosive quarterback and receivers. R'Tarriun Johnson, Harrell Blackmon, Tre Hawkins III, Joe Joe Headen, and WKU transfer Roger Cray combine for 134 total tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, 2 interceptions, 9 pass breakups, and 1 forced fumble. ODU ranks #86 in coverage with a PFF Grade of 61.9.

Advantage: Even

Linebackers

Against UTSA, WKU linebackers Will Ignont and Demetrius Cain accounted for 10 total tackles and 1 pass breakup. Through five games, they have totaled 52 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 0.5 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 1 quarterback hurry, and 1 fumble recovery. As it is the case most games, they will need to put an emphasis on run support, but with the Mack's ability to create plays with his legs, the linebackers will need to pay close attention to his scrambling tendencies even during passing downs.

ODU's linebacker corps has totaled 127 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, 1 pass breakup, and 3 quarterback hurries. Jordan Young, Ryan Henry, and Jason Henderson combine for 106 total tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 1.0 sack, and 2 quarterback hurries.

Neither group can afford missed gap assignments. Of course, ODU has proven to break runs, but WKU showed a lot of flashes last week, as well.

Advantage: ODU

Defensive Line

Through five games, WKU's rushing defense has allowed 211.6 yards per game, 13 touchdowns, and 4.8 yards per carry. They've allowed a rushing success rate of 54.9%, PPA of 0.268, and explosiveness of 0.865. And, normally able to put consistent and providential pressure on quarterbacks , WKU came up with 1 tackle for loss, 0 sacks, and 3 quarterback hurries against UTSA. On the season, the d-line has totaled 154 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, 4 pass breakups, 11 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 3 forced fumbles. The Hilltoppers' rushing defense ranks #104 with a PFF Grade of 56.7 and the pass rush ranks #99 with a PFF Grade of 69.0. Defensive ends DeAngelo Malone and Juwuan Jones lead the d-line with 63 total tackles, 7.0 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 4 quarterback hurries, and 2 forced fumbles.

ODU's rushing defense has allowed 131.5 yards per game, 3.3 yards per carry, and 7 touchdowns. They've allowed a rushing success rate of 38.6%, PPA of 0.05, and explosiveness of 0.82. The Monarchs' rushing defense ranks #46 with a PFF Grade of 75.6 and the pass rush ranks #128 with a PFF Grade of 58.9. The d-line has totaled 130 total tackles, 19.0 for loss, 10.0 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 13 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 forced fumble. Despite the TFLs, sacks, and quarterback hurries, those numbers aren't translating when it matters most. They'll be challenged with a reliable WKU o-line and a quarterback who possesses the intangibles, physicality, and stats to win the game.

Advantage: Even

Special Teams

Punter John Haggerty has punted 8 times for a total of 430 yards, 53.75 yards per punt, and has 3 punts land inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Brayden Narveson is 7-of-8 on field goals and 23-of-23 on extra point kicks. Jerreth Sterns has 4 punt returns for an average 8.5 yards per return. Beanie Bishop and Joey Beljan total 13 kickoff returns for 314 yards and 24.15 yards per return.

ODU's Ethan Duane has punted 30 times for a total of 1,171 yards, 39.03 yards per punt, and with 5 punts inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Nick Rice is 8-of-10 on field goals, has 1 blocked kick, and is 16-of-17 on extra point kicks. Roger Cray and Isiah Paige combine for 16 punt returns for an average 10.0 yards per return. AC White adds a punt return touchdown. Stone Smartt, LaMareon James, and Darius Savedge has 11 kickoff returns for 252 yards and 22.9 yards per return.

Advantage: WKU

WKU's offense has remained steadfast and explosive no matter the opponent. Now, WKU's defense has an opportunity to exploit and capitalize on an ODU offense with some gaps. However, ODU has kept their past three matchups close: never losing each game by more than a touchdown. Will Zappe, his deep set of receivers, and a ground game showing some flashes be too much for ODU?

WKU - 41

ODU - 28

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