Day: Friday, October 20

Time: 5:00 PM CST

Location: S. B. Ballard Stadium, Norfolk, VA

Network: CBS Sports

Series Record: WKU leads 3-0. In their last matchup, the Hilltoppers defeated the Monarchs 59-24.

Betting Line: WKU by 10 via ESPN (as of Thursday, October 19)

Position Group Predictions

Quarterbacks

Look, Mike White is going to win this battle every single week. White looked like his old self against Charlotte: 33-47 for 398 yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 5 touchdowns, and 8.47 yards per pass.

Old Dominion has had little consistency at quarterback between Blake LaRussa and Steven Williams. Combined, the two have posted 861 yards, 6 passing touchdowns, and 9 interceptions.

Both passing defenses have playmakers that force turnovers and put their offenses in a good position. WKU ranks #25 as a passing defense while Old Dominion ranks #42.

Do not expect White to put up the exact same numbers from the Charlotte game, because Old Dominion's pass defense will be the best WKU faces, thus far.

For a comparison, FAU ranks #24 in pass defense. Against FAU, Steven Williams was 16-39 (41.0%), 163 yards, 2 TD, and 4 interceptions.

Advantage: WKU

If you exclude the 21 yard sack on Nacarius Fant, WKU would have averaged 4.3 rush yards per attempt against Charlotte. Looking strictly at running backs, that number would increase to 4.9 rush yards per attempt. This is a vast improvement from previous games.

Against FAU's weak rushing defense, the Monarchs rushed for 248 yards and averaged 6.9 rush yards per attempt. Jeremy Cox accumulated 202 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. However, against a better rushing defense (Marshall), the Monarchs ran for 94 yards and, averaged 3.1 rush yards per attempt, and 0 touchdowns (this data excludes qb Steven Williams).

Looking strictly at numbers, Jeremy Cox of Old Dominion is the clear-cut leader. Cox has totaled 431 rushing yards, averaged 4.2 rush yards per attempt, and 2 touchdowns. 347 rushing yards separates Cox from the second leading rusher.

Although WKU has 4 different players with 100+ rushing yards, as a whole, they have accumulated just 63 more rushing yards than Old Dominion's Jeremy Cox.

With the return of D'Andre Ferby and Quinton Baker against Charlotte, WKU's run game proved to be healthier and more consistent. But, Old Dominion has a workhorse in Jeremy Cox.

One glaring statistical category, however, is that WKU has allowed 149.17 rush yards per game while Old Dominion has allowed 227.5 rush yards per game.

This position seems a little up in the air. If Cox is on, in addition to a healthy Ray Lawry [may be out], the advantage would go to Old Dominion. If WKU's run game continues to improve and they are able to exploit a weak Monarch rushing defense, the advantage would got to WKU.

Advantage: Tie

Receivers

WKU has seen 4 different receivers have at least one 90+ yard game:

-Lucky Jackson - 144 yards and 1 touchdown against EKU

-Deon Yelder - 92 yards and 1 touchdown against Charlotte

-Nacarius Fant - 110 yards against Illinois

-Kylen Towner - 111 yards and 1 touchdown against Charlotte

Old Dominion has seen 2 receivers have at least one 90+ yard game:

-Travis Fulgham - 102 yards and 1 touchdown against North Carolina

-Jonathan Duhart - 97 yards and 1 touchdown against Albany

Against Charlotte, 15 Hilltoppers tallied a reception. It is clear that WKU has options while Old Dominion relies heavily on their run game.

Advantage: WKU

Offensive Line

WKU's offensive line improved a smidgen against Charlotte: allowing 2 sacks rather than the average 3. Overall, they looked better: opening the field for the running corps and giving Mike White more time to find his receivers.

Old Dominion's offensive line is relatively experienced and only allows about 1.67 sacks per game. However, against FAU and Marshall, the Monarchs allowed more sacks than average: 2 from FAU and 3 from Marshall. They have opened up the field for Jeremy Cox to have 2 big running games:

-@ UMass: Cox ran for 97 yards

-vs FAU: Cox ran for 202 yards and 2 touchdowns.

In addition, WKU's pass rush averages 1 sack per game, while Old Dominion's pass rush averages 3.33 sacks per game.

I do believe that WKU's offensive line will continue to improve, but I will still give the advantage to Old Dominion for the time being.

Advantage: Old Dominion

Secondary

WKU's secondary is stout. Between Devon Key's 43 total tackles, DeAndre Farris' 10 pass breakups, and the secondary averaging almost 1 interception per game, fans could not ask more from the position.

The Hilltoppers have allowed 1,185 passing yards (#25), 197.5 passing yards per game (#34), 4 passing touchdowns (#3) and a quarterback rating of, about, 110 (#20). The Monarchs have allowed 1,256 passing yards (#42), 209.3 passing yards per game (#52),8 passing touchdowns, and a quarterback rating of, about, 130 (#79).

Old Dominion has yet to face a quarterback like Mike White, but Old Dominion will be the best pass defense the Hilltoppers face to this point.

Like I said with Mike White, it has become a point where you can almost expect me to give the advantage to WKU for this position.

Advantage: WKU

Linebackers & Defensive Line

Statistically, WKU and Old Dominion come out with similar numbers in terms of linebackers. However, in terms of overall pass rush, Old Dominion dominates the conference. Monarch defensive linemen Oshane Ximine, Bunmi Rotini, and Miles Fox account for 62.5% of Old Dominion's 20 total sacks. WKU's pass rush has only totaled 6 sacks.

The Monarchs will face an improving, but still with error, Hilltopper offensive line. WKU will face an experienced Monarch offensive line that has, however, shown signs of weakness against FAU and Marshall.

I will give the edge to Old Dominion, but this could end up a tie.

Advantage: Old Dominion

WKU has not played well on the road (lost to Illinois 20-7 and defeated UTEP 15-14). On the road, the Hilltoppers have averaged 11 points per game. Defensively, they have done well on the road: allowing 17 points per game. But at the same time, it is not fair to judge WKU based on only 2 road games. During the past 3 games (and 3 straight wins), the Hilltoppers have averaged 31 points per game and allowed 16.3 points per game.

Playing at home, the Monarchs have averaged 27.3 points per game and have allowed 42.6 points per game. Against the two C-USA opponents they have faced, Old Dominion has averaged 15.5 points per game and allowed 46.5 points per game.

Although this should be a Hilltopper victory, in many ways, this is a trap game. We saw how WKU looked against a [now] 0-7 UTEP , but we also saw what they looked like against a 0-7 Charlotte. A 2-4 Old Dominion team will put up a game, especially playing at home.

Ultimately, it is my belief that this game will be determined by the trenches.

Prediction
1st Half: 21-14

2nd Half: 17-7

WKU wins 38-21