Day: Saturday, November 13

Time: 1:00PM CST

Location: Rice Stadium

Network: ESPN+

Betting line: WKU -18.0 | O/U: 61.5

History: This will be the third meeting between WKU and Rice with the Tops leading the series 2-0. They last met in 2016 and WKU won by a score of 46-14.

Quarterbacks

Through nine games, WKU's Bailey Zappe has completed 308-of-441 pass attempts (69.8%) for 3,688 yards, 409.7 yards per game, 8.4 yards per pass attempt, and 37 touchdowns as well as 6 interceptions. He ranks #1 in total passing yards, #1 in passing yards per game, #12 in completion percentage, #1 in passing touchdowns, and has the eleventh-best passer rating in the nation. Zappe claims all of Conference USA's statistical passing categories. Of passers with at least 50 [deep pass] attempts, he ranks #1 in PFF's Highest passing grades on deep pass attempts (96.7). He ranks #3 of passers with at least 40 attempts as well as 30 attempts.

Against Middle Tennessee, Zappe went 29-of-50 (58.0%) for 281 yards, 5.62 yards per pass attempt, and 4 touchdowns. Additionally, he posted an 8-yard touchdown with his legs. The Middle game saw Zappe with his first "pedestrian" stats in terms of completion percentage, yards, and yards per pass. However, his adjusted completion percentage (67.4%) indicates what was seen if watching the game: MTSU's defense did have some success as the secondary dialed up its coverage and WKU's receivers had difficulty finding separation at times.

WKU's passing game has a success rate of 50.8%, PPA of 0.484, and explosiveness of 1.6.

Jake Constantine leads the Owls having completed 84-of-131 pass attempts (64.12%) for 1,059 yards, 176.5 yards per game, 8.1 yards per pass attempt, and 5 touchdowns as well as 3 interceptions. In Rice's 24-31 loss to Charlotte, Constantine went 19-of-35 (54.3%) for 253 yards, 7.2 yards per pass attempt, and posted 1 interception.

Rice's passing game has a success rate of 44.0%, PPA of 0.302, and explosiveness of 1.6.

Advantage: WKU

Receivers

WKU's receiver corps is led by Jerreth Sterns who ranks #2 nationally in total yards (1,276), #2 in receiving yards per game (140.7), tied at #1 in receiving touchdowns (11), #1 in total receptions (104), #1 in receptions per game (11.5), and tied at #1 in PFF's Grade for Pass Routes of 20+ Yards. Last week, Sterns had 11 receptions for 110 yards and 10.0 yards per reception.

Mitchell Tinsley has 43 receptions for 680 yards, 15.8 yards per reception, and 6 touchdowns. Malachi Corley has 54 receptions for 520 yards, 9.6 yards per reception, and 5 touchdowns. Daewood Davis adds 25 receptions for 416 yards, 16.6 yards per reception, and 6 touchdowns. Davis had 4 targets, 2 receptions, and 2 touchdowns against MTSU. On the season, the receiving corps averages 12.1 yards per reception, 9 receivers have at least 1 touchdown, and ranks #33 in PFF's Grade for Pass Routes.

Rice's receiver corps is led by receivers Jake Bailey and Cedric Patterson III as well as tight end Jordan Myers. Bailey leads with 46 receptions for 576 yards, 12.5 yards per reception, and 2 touchdowns. Patterson has 24 receptions for 341 yards, 14.2 yards per reception, and 2 touchdowns. Myers - also utilized in the running game - has 25 receptions for 266 yards, 10.6 yards per reception, and 1 touchdown. The Owls' receivers average 11.86 yards per reception, 6 receivers have at least 1 touchdown, and the group ranks #80 in PFF's Grade for Pass Routes.

Heading into week 11, it is pretty safe to say that the depth, efficiency, and explosiveness of WKU's receivers continues to stress defenses. With their proven consistency, look for them to continue their dominance.

Advantage: WKU

Running Backs

The Tops' ground attack is led by Adam Cofield and Noah Whittington who combine for 124 carries, 638 net yards, 5.14 yards per carry, and 5 touchdowns. Although WKU runs at a 33.2% clip, they are certainly efficient with a conference-best 52.5% success rate. Through nine games, the entire unit has 220 carries for 879 yards, 97.6 yards per game, 4.0 yards per carry, and 8 touchdowns. They add a PPA of 0.07 and explosiveness of 0.64.

Rice's ground game is intriguing with Myers - a listed tight end - leading in carries (89) and rushing touchdowns (8). He's primarily used in red-zone situations while Ari Broussard and Khalan Griffin handle the rest. Broussard and Griffin combine for 176 carries, 818 yards, 90.8 yards per game, 4.64 yards per carry, and 3 touchdowns. Opposite that of WKU, Rice's production is from the ground and they run at a 61.3% rate. The unit has 364 carries for 1,337 net yards, 148.56 yards per game, 3.7 yards per carry, and 13 touchdowns. The Owls' ground attack has a success rate of 37.3%, PPA of 0.07, and explosiveness of 0.94.

Advantage: Even

Offensive Line

For three consecutive weeks, WKU remains #1 in PFF's Grade for Pass Blocking. Now with a grade of 91.9m the gap between the Tops and #2 grew to a 5.9 difference. No matter the opponent, the big guys up front have been unyielding and instrumental in Zappe & Co.'s success. They also rank #59 in PFF's Grade for Run Blocking with a 68.5. WKU's o-line has allowed 10 sacks as well as a stuff rate of 15.1%.

Rice's pass blocking ranks #92 with a PFF Grade of 54.8 while run blocking ranks #112 with a grade of 55.7. The Owls' o-line has allowed 23 sacks as well as a stuff rate of 13.3%.

Advantage: WKU

Secondary

WKU's secondary has allowed 196-of-322 pass attempts (60.9%) for 2,288 yards (254.22 yards per game), 7.11 yards per pass attempt, and 13 passing touchdowns (1.4 passing touchdowns per game). During the Middle game, the Tops allowed 27-of-46 pass attempts (58.7%) for 226 yards, 4.9 yards per pass attempt, and 2 touchdowns. The headline of the day, though, was the Hilltopper defense forcing 7 turnovers...6 of which were interceptions. DB Beanie Bishop had 2 interceptions (1 pick-six) while Kahlef Hailassie and Davion Williams each had 1 pick. They allowed an EPA per pass of -0.46 and success rate of 0.32 on passing plays.

Antwon Kincade, A.J. Brathwaite Jr., Kahlef Hailassie, Miguel Edwards, Kaleb Oliver, Beanie Bishop, and Omari Alexander combine for 228 total tackles, 8.0 tackles for loss, 1.0 sack, 7-of-11 interceptions, 17 pass breakups, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 forced fumble. As of Monday, WKU moved up from #55 to #9 in coverage with a PFF Grade of 89.7. They allow a passing success rate of 41.1%, PPA of 0.20, and explosiveness of 1.5.

Rice has allowed 161-of-258 pass attempts (62.4%) for 2,122 yards (235.78 yards per game), 8.22 yards per pass attempt, and 13 touchdowns as well as recorded 8 interceptions. They also allow a 41.3% success rate, PPA of 0.32, and explosiveness of 1.6. Through Rice's nine games, opponents have averaged 28.6 pass attempts. Against WKU, they'll face a 72.0% increase in efficient pass attempts.

Naeem Smith, Gabe Taylor, Kirk Lockhart, George Nyakwol, and Miles McCord combine for 164 total tackles, 4.0 tackles for loss, 7-of-8 interceptions, 16 pass breakups, 3 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 2 forced fumbles. Safety Naeem Smith leads the secondary with 48.0 total tackles, 1.0 tackle for loss, 1.0 sack, 2 interceptions, 4 pass breakups, and 1 quarterback hurry. Rice ranks #78 in coverage with a PFF Grade of 66.7. Zappe and his receivers have likely learned and grown from their game against MTSU. Unless Rice 'copies + pastes' MTSU's coverage, there's no reason to believe Zappe & Co. do not perform as they have all season.

Advantage: WKU

Linebackers

Against Middle, WKU linebacker Will Ignont had 3 tackles and 1 pass breakup. One of the three tackles left MTSU's quarterback seeing ghosts thereafter. Demetrius Cain had 2 tackles, 1 interception, and 1 quarterback hurry. This season, Ignont and Cain have totaled 76 tackles, 6.0 tackles for loss, 4.0 sacks, 3 interceptions, 6 pass breakups, 3 quarterback hurries, and 1 fumble recovery. At the rate of which Rice runs, the Tops' linebacking corps needs to prioritize defending the run first, then force Constantine to use his arm to lead the offense.

Rice's defense and linebacker corps is led by Antonio Montero at Mike. Desmyn Baker and Myron Morrison are at Will. Montero sits atop the Owls' leaderboard with 60.0 total tackles, 9.0 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 1 quarterback hurry, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 forced fumble. Baker and Morrison combine for 55 total tackles, 4.0 tackles for loss, 0.5 sack, 2 pass breakups, 3 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 2 forced fumbles.

Statistically, Rice looks better on paper. However, the challenge of getting past WKU's #1 pass blocking unit and throwing Zappe off outweighs those stats.

Advantage: Even

Defensive Line

WKU's rushing defense has allowed 366 carries to go for 1,518 yards, 168.7 yards per game, 4.1 yards per carry, and 19 touchdowns. Last week, they allowed 35 carries for 123 yards, 3.5 yards per carry, and 1 touchdown from MTSU's ground game. Meanwhile, the entire line continued to disrupt and bring consistent pressure.

On the season, the d-line has totaled 280 tackles, 32.0 tackles for loss, 15.0 sacks, 1 interception, 12 pass breakups, 15 quarterback hurries, 4 fumble recoveries, and 7 forced fumbles. The Hilltoppers' rushing defense ranks #87 with a PFF Grade of 61.9 and the pass rush ranks #72 with a PFF Grade of 73.6. They allow a rushing success rate of 49.8%, PPA of 0.23, and explosiveness of 0.92. Defensive end DeAngelo Malone leads the line and defense with 62 total tackles, 11.0 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 4 quarterback hurries, and 3 forced fumbles. Between the likes of Malone, Juwuan Jones, Jaden Hunter, and Michael Pitts, Constantine will need to anticipate from when and where the pressure will come and make plays with the chaos around him.

Rice's rushing defense has allowed 308 carries to go for 1,611 yards, 179.0 yards per game, 5.2 yards per carry, and 25 touchdowns. They've allowed three 200+ yard games and one 400+ yard game. In conference, they've allowed 695 yards, 139.0 yards per game, 4.5 yards per carry, and 9 touchdowns. Their rushing defense ranks #107 with a PFF Grade of 53.6. To this point, they've allowed a rushing success rate of 41.3%, PPA of 0.32, and explosiveness of 1.6. The d-line has totaled 171 total tackles, 20.5 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 8 quarterback hurries, and 3 forced fumbles. Elijah Garcia leads the line with 49.0 total tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, 1 pass breakup, and 1 quarterback hurry. The pass rush ranks #44 with a PFF Grade of 79.2.

Advantage: WKU

Special Teams

Punter John Haggerty has punted 21 times for 1,062 yards, 50.57 yards per punt, and has 7 punts land inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Brayden Narveson is 15-of-17 on field goals and 43-of-43 on extra point kicks. Jerreth Sterns and DeAngelo Wilson combine for 11 punt returns, 134 return yards, and 12.18 yards per return. Beanie Bishop, Joey Beljan, and Jakairi Moses total 21 kickoff returns for 485 yards and 23.1 yards per return.

Rice's Charlie Mendes has punted 45 times for 1,991 yards, 44.24 yards per punt, and has 12 punts inside of the 20-yard line. Kickers Christian VanSickle and Collin Riccitelli are 5-of-11 on field goals and are 21-of-23 on extra point kicks. Sean Fresch and Kenneth Orji combine for 9 punt returns for 41 yards and 5.5 yards per return. Fresch, Juma Otoviano, and Jordan Myers combine for 20 kickoff returns for 468 yards, and 23.4 yards per return.

Advantage: WKU

Rice is more than capable of upsetting a heavy favorite as evident by their 30-24 win over UAB. However, WKU has been dominant in their four-game win streak: defeating opponents by an average 24.25 points per game. The Owls' will try to grind down the clock, but their defense has been rocky and without key takeaways, which should prime and provide Zappe & Co. a platform to flex their aerial attack.

WKU - 45

Rice - 21

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