Day: Saturday, November 23
Time: 2:30 PM CST
Location: M.M. Roberts Stadium
Network: ESPN+
Betting line: USM -4.0 | O/U: 51.5
History: This will be the third meeting between the Hilltoppers and Golden Eagles. WKU leads the matchup 2-0. In 2015, WKU defeated Southern Miss. in the C-USA Football Championship by a score of 45-28.
Position Breakdown
Quarterback
USM's Jack Abraham leads the league in total passing yards, yards per game, and efficiency. Through ten games, Abraham has completed 217-of-312 pass attempts (69.6%) for 2,924 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 10 picks. The redshirt junior has also been fairly mobile this season with 62 carries for 105 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns. Abraham has played extremely well at home with a passer rating of 187.66, completion rate of 72.8%, and a touchdown/interception rate of 9/1. The last interception he threw at home was was Game 1 versus Alcorn State.
The headline after WKU's dominant 45-19 win over Arkansas was Ty Storey's production against his previous team. Storey had a big day: going 22-of-32 (68.8%) for 213 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 17 carries, 77 rushing yards, and 2 rushing touchdowns. Through seven games as starter, Storey has gone 163-of-234 (69.7%) for 1,690 yards, 8 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 87 carries for 176 rushing yards, and 6 rushing touchdowns. He finds ways to score.
Both quarterbacks have a reliable and explosive receiving corps as well as similar offensive lines. Against a typically stingy UAB defense, Abraham went 17-of-22 (77.3%) for 164 yards and 2 passing touchdowns. Prior to the LA Tech game, Abraham had only thrown 4 picks. At LA Tech, Abraham doubled his season total of interceptions. Star cornerback Amik Robertson was responsible for 3-of-4 picks during the game.
Abraham will take some deep shots downfield while WKU's defense will have a tall task of forcing Abraham into uncharacteristic mistakes on his home turf.
Advantage: USM
Receivers
The Golden Eagles' receiving corps is arguably the best in the league. A connection between Abraham and wideout Quez Watkins is undeniable. Watkins - a big play threat and league leader - has totaled 44 receptions for 921 yards, 20.9 yards per catch, and 5 touchdowns. Complementing Watkins are Tim Jones and Jaylond Adams. Jones has 52 receptions for 615 yards and 2 touchdowns. Adams has 48 receptions for 483 yards and 2 touchdowns. Last week, Adams did not play due to an undisclosed injury. If he is unavailable Saturday, USM will be without a key to both their passing and return game.
As of late, WKU wideouts Lucky Jackson and Jahcour Pearson have taken the top off of defenses. Between Charlotte, Marshall, and FAU, Lucky Jackson totaled 30 receptions, 503 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Against Arkansas, it was Jahcour Pearson who put up big numbers after 10 receptions for 120 yards and hauling in a 69-yard touchdown. Given what the Golden Eagles allow through the air, if the speedy Jacquez Sloan or tight ends Joshua Simon or Kyle Fourtenbary step up in a big way, WKU's passing attack could be just as lethal as USM's.
Advantage: USM
Running Backs
WKU's Gaej Walker remains the fourth leading rusher in the league and spearheads the Hilltopper ground attack with 192 carries for 912 yards, 4.8 yards per carry, and 7 rushing touchdowns. He, now, has had six games in which he ran at least 100 yards. Against Arkansas, Walker posted 23 carries for 129 yards, 5.6 yards per carry, and 1 rushing touchdown. The mobile Storey, while not explosive on the ground, has been able to extend plays and drives using his legs. Also against Arkansas, Storey had 17 carries for 77 yards, 4.5 yards per carry, and 2 rushing touchdowns. Of five fourth down conversions during that game, Storey converted three on quarterback keeps.
Where Walker is WKU's cemented go-to guy, USM has relied on the likes of Kevin Perkins (RB) and De'Michael Harris (WR) in the ground game. Perkins leads with 88 carries for 509 yards, 5.8 yards per carry, and 3 touchdowns. Utility-man Harris has 92 carries for 456 yards, 5.0 yards per carry, and 5 touchdowns. Like Storey, Abraham can extend plays with his feet; on the season, he has 62 carries for 105 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Both teams have a veteran offensive line that has opened up lanes for the ground game as well as a rushing defense in the league's top five.
Advantage: Even
Offensive Line
After allowing 9 sacks during a three game stretch, WKU's offensive line dominated the line of scrimmage against Arkansas. They did not allow a single sack and the ground game totaled 47 carries for 265 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Likewise, the Golden Eagles' o-line had a strong performance against UTSA: only allowing 1 sack and the ground game had 39 carries for 203 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Statistically, WKU's o-line leads in the following statistical categories: line yards, standard downs line yards, opportunity rate, power success rate, stuff rate, sack rate, and passing downs sack rate.
Both lines will face strong defenses. USM leads the league in sacks (35) while WKU brings the heat from defensive ends DeAngelo Malone and Juwuan Jones.
Advantage: Even
Secondary
The Hilltopper secondary is [statistically] led by Devon Key, Antwon Kincade, Ta'Corian Darden, and Trae Meadows. The four have combined for 208 total tackles, 10 TFLs, 4-of-8 INTs, 17 pass breakups, 2 quarterback hurries, and 1 fumble recovery. Against Arkansas, Kincade picked off John Stephen Jones on the Razorbacks' first drive. Later in the game, Key picked off K.J. Jefferson and returned the ball for a 25 yard touchdown. The passing defense ranks third in the league: allowing 1,815 total passing yards, 181.5 yards per game, a completion rate of 53.5%, 7.1 yards per pass attempt, and 12 touchdowns. Saturday, they will be up against the best aerial attack in the conference which has a tendency to take deep shots: something WKU has prepared for over the bye-week. Even without Adams, Abraham still has Watkins and Jones.
USM is led by D.Q. Thomas, Ky'el Hemby, Shannon Showers, Rachuan Mitchell, and Ty Williams. Combined, they have 240 total tackles, 17.5 TFLs, 8 sacks, 9-of-9 INTs, and 23 pass breakups. The Golden Eagles' passing defense ranks tenth: allowing 2,475 total passing yards, 247.5 yards per pass attempt, a completion rate of 58.9%, 8.3 yards per pass attempt, and 19 touchdowns. Despite what the defensive backs are allowing through the air, they are finding ways to put pressure on the quarterback elsewhere.
A slight edge goes to WKU's consistency defending against the pass and allowed yardage. However, USM has forced some big turnovers, and those can really be momentum changers.
Advantage: WKU
Linebackers
Six USM linebackers account for 17.5-of-35 sacks. Those six players have, also, combined for 154 total tackles, 21.5 TFLs, 10 quarterback hurries, 3 fumble recoveries, and 1 forced fumble.
Kyle Bailey and Clay Davis lead the Hilltoppers' linebacking corps. The two have combined for 109 total tackles, 5.5 TFLs, 2-of-8 INTs, 1 pass breakup, and 7 quarterback hurries. Georgia transfer Jaden Hunter had 2 total tackles, 1.0 TFL, and 1.0 sack against the Razorbacks. They still need to improve in the areas of big plays and forcing turnovers.
Advantage: USM
Defensive Line
Hilltopper defensive end DeAngelo Malone leads the defensive front with 76 total tackles, 18.0 TFLs, 9.0 sacks, and 15 quarterback hurries. He leads the league in, both, TFLs and sacks, and is third nationally in TFLs. Against Arkansas, Malone had 5 total tackles, 1.0 TFL, and 2 quarterback hurries. USM will have their hands full as Malone is able to make tackles all over the field. His counterpart, Juwuan Jones has 45 total tackles, 9.0 TFLs, 4.5 sacks, and 8 quarterback hurries. The talented ends will put a lot of pressure on a usually unfazed Abraham.
USM's defensive line is led by Jacques Tuner, Delmond Landry, and Demarrio Smith. Combined, they are responsible for 72 total tackles, 17.5 TFLs, and 6.5 sacks. In last week's win over UTSA, Smith had 4 total tackles, 1 forced fumble, and 1 quarterback hurry.
Advantage: WKU
Special Teams
On the season, WKU's Cory Munson has gone 13-of-20 on field goals and 29-of-30 on extra points. Punter John Haggerty leads the league with 46.4 yards per punt with 11 inside of the 20 yard line. Roger Cray has returned 3 punts for an average of 8.33 yards per return. The kick return game has seen Garland LaFrance, Jacquez Sloan, and Dayton Wade with impressive returns. Combined, they average 20.03 yards per return.
USM placekicker Andrew Stein has gone 16-of-19 on field goals and 30-of-32 on extra points. Punter Zac Everett averages 40.91 yards per punt with 13 inside of the 20 yard line. Adams leads both punt and kick returns (9.17 yards and 30.8 yards respectively per return). He has scored once on a punt return and twice on kick returns. De'Michael Harris has also contributed on kick returns with 7 returns for 200 yards, 28.57 yards per return, and 1 kick return for a score. Simply put, the return game gives the Golden Eagles an added dimension in which the Hilltoppers have to prepare.
Advantage: USM
Summary and Prediction
WKU's bye-week was timely given USM's recent dominance. Through three games, the Golden Eagles have outscored opponents 93-25. In many regards, it is a must-win game for both teams. In addition to USM's senior day, a win against WKU and a LA Tech loss to UAB would put the Golden Eagles atop the C-USA West Division. WKU - although bowl eligible - could use another win to secure an invite. Both teams matchup very well which should make for a good game. However, USM has not lost at home since September 8, 2018. WKU has been headed in the right direction, but it is hard to imagine that USM does not capitalize on a huge opportunity.
Prediction
USM 27, WKU 24
