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Published Oct 15, 2020
Analyzing the Enemy: UAB Blazers (10/17/20)
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Hannah Page  •  InsideHilltopperSports
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@hanalei91

Day: Saturday, October 17

Game Time: 12:30PM CST

Location: Legion Field

Network: Fox Sports/Stadium

Series Record: WKU leads the series matchup 4-3. Last season, the Tops defeated the Blazers by a score of 20-13.

Betting Line: UAB -13.5 | O/U: 44.5

Position Breakdown

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Passing Stats/Comparison
Pigrome (WKU)Thomas (WKU)Lucero (UAB)

CMP-ATT (%)

61-105 (58.1%)

9-18 (50.0%)

47-78 (60.3%)

Total Passing Yards (Passing Yards Per Game)

559 (139.75)

148 (148.0)

652 (163.0)

Yards Per Pass

5.3

8.2

8.4

Passing TDs

6

1

6

INTs (INTs Per Game)

0 (0)

0 (0)

3 (0.75)

Carries (Carries Per Game)

54 (13.5)

7 (7)

5 (1.25)

Rushing Yards (Rushing Yards Per Game)

225 (56.25)

30 (30)

2 (0.5)

Rushing TDs

0

1

0

PFF Grade (OFF/PASS/RUN)

62.2 / 60.6 / 61.4

69.5 / 72.0 / 58.7

78.7 / 79.1 / 58.0

Quarterbacks

During the WKU-Marshall game, with about 9:20 left in the 3rd quarter, backup QB Kevaris Thomas entered the game after Tyrrell Pigrome "Piggy" was unable to get anything going. To that point, Piggy had gone 12-of-21 for 61 yards, 2.9 yards per pass and totaled 7 carries for 28 yards. Additionally, Piggy has fumbled in each of the last three games. No matter if Marshall was giving up garbage time points or not, Thomas - a redshirt sophomore and 4-star recruit out of high school - showcased a spark with his arm and feet that the Tops' offense desperately needed then and moving forward. On his first touchdown drive, Thomas went 1-of-1 for 51 passing yards and had 2 carries for 6 yards including a 2 yard rushing touchdown. On the second touchdown drive, Thomas went 5-of-9 for 71 passing yards including a 26 yard touchdown pass and had 1 carry for 5 yards. When asked who would start against UAB, head coach Tyson Helton did not comment...meaning UAB has to prepare for both but with limited film on Thomas.

Since September 15, UAB's starting QB Tyler Johnston III has been out [indefinitely] with a shoulder injury. With Johnston III sidelined, redshirt freshman Bryson Lucero took over. Lucero saw some snaps against Central Arkansas and Miami before taking the reins against South Alabama and UTSA. As a starter, Lucero has gone 36-of-57 for 514 yards, 9.0 yards per pass and has totaled 5 passing touchdowns and 3 interceptions. While his decision-making could improve, he's been accurate and commands the offense well.

Advantage: UAB

Receiving Stats/Comparison of Top Performers
TGT-REC (%)YDSTDSPFF Grade (OFF / RECV)

Mitchell Tinsley (WKU)

26-16 (61.5%)

158

2

65.6 / 64.3

Xavier Lane (WKU)

17-13 (76.5%)

147

1

62.2 / 62.5

Dayton Wade (WKU)

24-15 (62.5%)

124

0

69.5 / 69.2

Myron Mitchell (UAB)

26-21 (80.8%)

306

2

73.9 / 74.8

Austin Watkins (UAB)

28-19 (67.9%)

301

2

72.9 / 73.1

Hayden Pittman (UAB)

13-9 (69.2%)

106

0

71.2 / 70.1

Gerrit Prince (UAB)

12-7 (58.3%)

85

4

61.3 / 65.8

Receivers

All things considered - two departures at the receiver position and inconsistency at QB - WKU's wide receivers and tight ends have been reliable. In a short amount of time, Thomas was able to spread the ball out to several playmakers.

-Xavier Lane was targeted twice and had 2 receptions for 64 yards.

-Mitchell Tinsley was targeted five times and had 3 receptions for 31 yards.

-Dayton Wade was targeted seven times and had 3 receptions for 27 yards.

-Dalvin Smith was targeted once and had 1 reception for 26 yards and a touchdown.

This is a solid group that will only get better once QB play improves.

The Blazers' receiving corps is led by receivers Myron Mitchell and Austin Watkins. The go-to targets (and deep threats) are responsible for 54 receptions, 607 receiving yards, and 4 touchdowns. To make the receiving corps even lethal, the Blazers also have two reliable tight ends who have combined for 16 receptions, 191 yards, and 4 touchdowns.

Advantage: Even

Rushing Stats/Comparison of Top Performers
CARRIESYDS (YPC)TDSPFF Grade (OFF / RUN)

Tyrrell Pigrome (WKU)

54

225 (4.1)

0

62.2 / 61.4

Gaej Walker (WKU)

28

73 (2.7)

1

52.0 / 53.2

Jakairi Moses (WKU)

12

66 (5.5)

0

70.9 / 75.8

Spencer Brown (UAB)

86

450 (5.2)

5

78.9 / 78.2

Jermaine Brown Jr. (UAB)

38

142 (3.7)

1

72.4 / 72.3

Running Backs

Week in and week out WKU's Gaej Walker - a 1,000+ yard rusher in 2019 - has been without production. Through four games, Walker has just 73 yards, 2.7 yards per carry, 1 touchdown, and 1 fumble. That struggle was on display, yet again, against Marshall. Around the same time of Thomas replacing Piggy (through the end of the game), Jakairi Moses had 6 carries for 22 yards, 3.7 yards per carry, and 1 fumble. Thomas had 7 carries for 30 yards and a 2-yard rushing touchdown. Thomas is, likely, not as mobile as Piggy, but he showed that he can use his feet when needed (see 13 yard run on 4th & 7). If Thomas were to start, Walker could look different, but Moses has been more successful. The Tops are looking at a low success rate and have to establish the run.

For back-to-back games, WKU's questionable rushing defense will face one of the best running backs in the conference. UAB's Spencer Brown has been the linchpin of the Blazers' already solid offense. Through four games, the program record holder has totaled a whopping 86 carries, 450 rushing yards, 112.5 rushing yards per game, 5.2 yards per carry, and 5 touchdowns. Jermaine Brown Jr. and Lucious Stanley provide consistent balance and relief for Brown, making this unit hard to stop.

Advantage: UAB

Offensive Line

The Blazers' offensive line has only allowed 2 sacks this season: 1 on Tyler Johnston III and 1 on Bryson Lucero. They are a veteran group who bullies defenses and paves the way for Brown.

On paper, WKU's offensive line has underwhelmed with the ground game seemingly going no where and "allowing" 8 sacks on Piggy. However, much could be attributed to Piggy's decision making in RPOs, unwarranted scrambles or leaving the pocket. WKU has the same veteran offensive line from 2019, and lack of offensive production from skill players cannot lie solely on the offensive line.

Both teams have an impressive number of linemen ranked in PFF's Top 40.

Advantage: Even

Secondary Stats/Comparison of Top Performers
TOTPFF GRADE (DEF / COV)

Devon Key (WKU)

33

66.6 / 77.2

Antwon Kincade (WKU)

27

61.6 / 52.5

Dionté Ruffin (WKU)

8

66.4 / 63.5

Roger Cray (WKU)

9

63.6 / 70.2

Omari Alexander (WKU)

9

64.1 / 59.3

Will Boler (UAB)

23

65.4 / 71.5

Dy’jonn Turner (UAB)

15

64.4 / 66.5

TD Marshall (UAB)

12

53.1 / 52.0

Brontae Harris (UAB)

9

63.5 / 62.7

Secondary

The Tops' secondary has allowed 213.8 yards per game, 15 pass deflections, and 1 interception. However, to this point, WKU's opponents have not had to play pass-happy when the ground game was easily getting the job done. Their production will depend on if the struggling rushing defense can stop Brown and if the pass rush can rattle Lucero into making similar mistakes as he made against UTSA.

UAB - led by safety Will Boler and a deep cornerback group - is fifth in the nation in passing yards allowed with 152.3 allowed passing yards per game. On the season, the Blazers' DBs are also responsible for 1-of-3 interceptions and 9-of-16 pass breakups.

Advantage: UAB

Linebacker Stats/Comparison of Top Performers
TOTPFF GRADE (DEF / TACK / COV)

Eli Brown (WKU)

22

60.9 / 69.6 / 72.0

Kyle Bailey (WKU)

33

45.7 / 57.9 / 53.2

Damon Lowe Jr. (WKU)

11

56.7 / 45.1 / 57.3

Noah Wilder (UAB)

28

55.6 / 70.9 / 62.4

Kris Moll (UAB)

26

68.9 / 54.8 / 77.5

Jordan Smith (UAB)

17

79.2 / 70.0 / 50.6

Linebackers

WKU regularly utilizes a 4-2-5 alignment which may be one reason why the defense has been getting foiled on the ground. Individually, guys like Eli Brown and Kyle Bailey have some nice stats and highlights. But, overall, they've been flat and too much is getting past the second level.

Noah Wilder and Kris Moll lead the UAB linebackers and defense with a combined 54 total tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, 1.0 interception, 3 pass breakups and 3 quarterback hurries. Pass-rush production comes by way of outside linebackers Jordan Smith and Alex Wright. Smith is responsible for 17 total tackles, 5.0 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, 1 pass breakup, and 4 quarterback hurries.

Advantage: UAB

Defensive Line Stats/Comparison of Top Performers
TOTPFF GRADE (DEF / RDEF / PRSH)

DeAngelo Malone (WKU)

29

68.0 / 52.1 / 79.4

Ricky Barber (WKU)

23

66.5 / 63.9 / 66.0

Jeremy Darvin (WKU)

10

52.2 / 46.9 / 61.9

Juwuan Jones (WKU)

10

50.6 / 44.3 / 57.5

Jalen Madden (WKU)

3

43.0 / 38.4 / 55.3

Tony Fair (UAB)

10

65.1 / 70.1 / 56.0

Tyree Turner (UAB)

10

88.3 / 89.8 / 73.2

Antonio Moultrie (UAB)

9

64.4 / 67.4 / 68.1

Defensive Line

As mentioned previously, the defense has struggled against the run despite their experience. Last week, Marshall's Brenden Knox was unstoppable: 15 carries, 107 yards, and 3 touchdowns. On the season, they've allowed 195.5 rushing yards per game, 4.6 yards per carry, and about 2.75 rushing touchdowns per game. This performance could be chalked up to - at least in part - the offensive woes which force the defense to spend more time on the field.

In terms of pass-rush, most of it comes from defensive end DeAngelo Malone. On the season, Malone is responsible for 29 total tackles, 6.0 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, 1 forced fumble, and 1 blocked kick. Defensive tackle Ricky Barber has stepped up, as well. Barber has 23 total tackles, 1.0 tackle for loss, 1.0 sack, 2 quarterback hurries, and 1 forced fumble.

But, undoubtedly, the defensive front will have their hands full with a strong UAB offensive line and stout ground game.

UAB's Tony Fair steadies the middle with 10 total tackles and 1 tackle for loss. Grad transfer Tyree Turner has made an instant impact with 10 total tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 1.0 sack, 1 quarterback hurry, and 1 fumble recovery. Like WKU, UAB's rushing defense could use some work. So far, they've allowed 193.5 yards per game, 5.4 yards per carry, and 5 touchdowns.

Advantage: WKU

Special Teams

WKU's John Haggerty has averaged 43.95 yards per punt with 5 punts inside of the 20. Kicker Brayden Narveson has gone 3-of-3 on FG attempts and 10-of-10 on extra point kicks. Against MTSU Narveson made a 43 and 53 yard kick. Dayton Wade has averaged 15.75 yards on 8 kick returns. Omari Alexander and Dayton Wade have totaled 3 punt returns for an average of 6.25 yards per return.

UAB's Kyle Greenwell has averaged 42.4 yards per punt with 7 punts inside of the 20. Kicker Matt Quinn has gone 1-of-2 on FG attempts and 17-of-17 on extra point kicks. Mitchell has totaled 3 kick returns for an average of 22.3 yards per return and 2 punt returns for an average of 7.0 yards per return.

Advantage: WKU

Prediction

With an active home-winning streak of 20 games, the Blazers are a hard team to beat on their own turf. Meanwhile, it feels as if WKU is back at square one: who is the starting quarterback?...will Moses lead the way on the ground?...where did the stout defense go?

Prediction
1st Half2nd HalfScore

WKU

7

13

20

UAB

14

20

34

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