Day: Saturday, September 28

Time: 6:00 PM CST

Location: Houchens Industries - L.T. Smith Stadium

Network: ESPN+

Betting line: UAB -3 | O/U: 47

History: The Hilltoppers and Blazers have faced each other six times since 1993 with the series tied 3-3. WKU won in 1993, 1994, and 1995. UAB won in 1996, 1997, and 2014.

Quarterbacks

Although WKU's Steven Duncan is out for the remainder of the season, the quarterback comparison table is still posted.

During Monday's press conference, head coach Tyson Helton announced that starting quarterback Steven Duncan will be out for the remainder of the year following a season-ending foot injury and surgery. Although Helton has yet to name the starting quarterback - and mentioned that he does not think it will be a one-man show - Arkansas transfer Ty Storey is the perceived front-runner. Davis Shanley and Kevaris Thomas are, also, candidates and/or will have playing time.

Through three games, UAB's Tyler Johnston III has completed 45-of-70 pass attempts for 746 yards, 10.7 yards per pass (11.7 adjusted yards per attempt), 2 interceptions, and 8 touchdowns. Additionally, he has totaled 27 carries, 114 rushing yards, 4.2 yards per carry, and 1 rushing touchdown.

On 1st and 2nd downs, The Blazers run at a rate of 65-66%. On 3rd downs, they pass at a rate of 57.89% Call it Marty Ball, but it works for UAB. Johnston is a large reason why it works. His efficiency (64.3% completion rate, 45.8% success rate), mobility, and deep ball threat primes UAB to score (and score quickly).

Advantage: UAB

Receivers

Receivers

WKU's passing attack is a bit in limbo with the uncertainty surrounding the quarterback position. If the QB - Storey, Shanley, or Thomas - can come out slinging and maintain a rhythm, then the receivers will shine. The dominoes will fall into place one way or another; if the QB cannot deliver the ball, the receivers are at his mercy. At the same rate, no matter the quarterback, they will have a group of experienced playmakers at their disposal.

It is apparent, by way of interviews and pressers, that the coaching staff still values and aims for the maximization of big, explosive plays; however, so far, WKU has not taken many deep shots. 58% of explosive pass play yardage has come from yards after catch (e.g., 77-yard touchdown pass against Louisville where Josh Simon was responsible for 68 YAC). WKU's tight ends have been the most difficult for teams to contain. Kyle Fourtenbary and Josh Simon have combined for 211 yards, 4 explosive plays, and 3 touchdowns. Jahcour Pearson and Jacquez Sloan have emerged as the most dependable and impressive wideouts.

While the timing of the bye-week was perfect for WKU, it is untimely that the new starting quarterback and his receiving corps will have to face one of the league's best passing defenses.

Meanwhile, WKU's passing defense will have their hands full with the trio threat that is Austin Watkins, Kendall Parham, and Myron Mitchell. Watkins and Parham are responsible for 236 and 224 receiving yards, respectively. Parham leads the nation with 28 yards per catch. Markus Grossman, although only targeted 5 times, has a catch rate of 100% and a success rate of 80%.

Advantage: Even

Running Back

After Gaej Walker's back-to-back 100(+) yard games, the he was shut down by Louisville: totaling 14 carries, 41 yards, and 2.9 yards per carry. KeShawn McClendon had 2 carries in the 4th quarter for 15 yards and 7.5 yards per carry. Statistically, UAB's rushing defense is better than Louisville's: allowing 286 yards off of 92 carries (30.6 per game), 3.1 yards per carry, 2 rushing touchdowns, and 95.3 yards per game. Especially given the quarterback situation/unknowns, WKU will have to establish the run early.

The Blazers are averaging 153.3 yards and 3.7 yards per game. Last week, UAB posted 201 rushing yards and 4.5 yards per carry against South Alabama. Spencer Brown leads the team with 192 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. Lucious Stanley leads the team in yards per carry with 6.8. WKU will be, statistically, best rushing defense they have faced thus far. The Hilltoppers have allowed 377 yards off of 125 carries (41.6 per game), 3.0 yards per carry, 3 rushing touchdowns, and 125.7 yards per game.

Advantage: UAB

Offensive Line

WKU's o-line has only allowed 2 sacks through 3 games and, for the most part, opened up lanes for the run game. They have an 80.0% power success rate, meaning that on third or fourth downs, two yards or less to go, the ground attack was able to achieve the first down and/or score [at a rate of 80.0%].

UAB's o-line has only allowed 1 sack and allow a stuff rate of only 16.0%. The Blazers have a power success rate of 33.3%.

Both teams allow a 40.65% opportunity rate.

As both lines are so statistically similar, this will come down to the more veteran, experienced group as well as the better defensive front.

Advantage: WKU

Secondary

Again, the Blazers have one of the best passing defenses in the league. UAB has only allowed 557 passing yards from 92 attempts (30.6 per game), 6.1 yards per pass attempt, and a completion rate of 56.5%. They have totaled 10 pass breakups and forced 1 turnover in Game 1 against Alabama State. Safety Will Boler leads the secondary with 13 total tackles, 0.5 tackles for loss, 1 interception, and 2 pass breakups.

WKU has allowed 679 passing yards from 64 attempts (21.3 per game), 10.6 yards per pass attempt, and a completion rate of 57.8%. The Hilltopper secondary has totaled only 4 pass breakups and have yet to force a turnover. They have struggled against the deep ball...which UAB's Johnston can throw: allowing 13 explosive pass plays for 471 total yards. Safety Devon Key leads WKU's secondary with 25 total tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, and 1 fumble recovery.

Advantage: UAB

Linebackers

Other than Kyle Bailey, the Hilltopper linebacking corps has been fairly quiet. Bailey leads the team [along with DE DeAngelo Malone] with 27 total tackles and, also, has 1 tackle for loss. Louisville transfer Malik Staples has 8 total tackles.

UAB's Noah Wilder leads the team in total tackles with 21 and is responsible for 3 tackles for loss and 0.5 sacks. Kristopher Moll has 11 total tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 1 sack, and 1 quarterback hurry. Weak and strongside linebackers Fitzgerald Mofor and Jordan Smith have combined for 6.5 tackles for loss.

Advantage: UAB

Defensive Line

WKU defensive ends Juwan Jones and DeAngelo Malone combine for 44 total tackles, 11 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, and 4 quarterback hurries. Defensive tackles Jaylon George and Jeremy Darvin have 24 combined total tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, 3 quarterback hurries, and 1 forced fumble.

Garrett Marino leads the Blazers' defensive line with 16 total tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 2 quarterback hurries, and 1 forced fumble. UAB runs a 3-4 defense: the same defense that gave WKU trouble against Louisville.

Both teams' defensive fronts will be a nuisance to the opponent. They have mostly done a good job of maintaining the line of scrimmage and putting pressure on the quarterback.

Advantage: Even

Special Teams

For two consecutive games, placekicker Cory Munson perfectly executed an onside kick. Additionally, the freshman is 2-of-3 on field goals and 9-of-9 on extra points. Punter John Haggerty can absolutely boot the ball, averaging 47 yards per punt and putting 5 inside of the 20 yard line. The punt return game has not been as impressive. Punt return man Clayton Bush has averaged -2.0 yards per punt return.

UAB placekicker Nick Vogel is 2-of-5 on field goals and 12-of-12 on extra points. Punter Kyle Greenwell averages 40.1 yards per punt and 4 inside of the 20. Myron Mitchell leads on, both, kick and punt returns. On punt returns, Mitchell has 6 returns for 18 yards (3 yards per return). On kick returns, Mitchell has 5 returns for 171 yards, 34.2 yards per return, and 1 return touchdown.

Advantage: Even

The defending 2018 C-USA Champions are off to a hot, 3-0 start. You would not know that UAB had to replace over 30 seniors this year. They are defensively sound and have a productive offense. Even so, and like WKU, UAB has looked a bit different each game. Different enough to make predicting the outcome of this game very difficult.

WKU is hungry for a 2-0 start in conference play whilst replacing their starting quarterback. The offense still struggles to execute consistently, but they showed signs of perseverance in the Louisville game.

You cannot count either team out. This game could come down to the trenches.

UAB 28, WKU 24

1st Half: 14-14

2nd Half: 14-10