Day: Saturday, October 9

Time: 6:00PM CST

Location: Houchens Industries - L. T. Smith Stadium

Network: Stadium

Betting line: WKU -3.5 | O/U: 71.0

History: This will be the second meeting between WKU and UTSA. In 2014, the Hilltoppers defeated the Roadrunners 45-7.

Quarterbacks

Through four games, WKU's Bailey Zappe has completed 133-of-183 pass attempts (72.7%) for 1,712 yards, 428 yards per game, 9.3 yards per pass attempt, and 16 touchdowns as well as and 2 interceptions. He ranks #5 in total passing yards, #1 in passing yards per game, #6 in completion percentage, tied for #5 in passing touchdowns, and boasts the eight best passer rating in the nation. In the conference, Zappe ranks #1 in total passing yards, passing yards per game, quarterback rating, touchdowns, and completion percentage. Against No. 17 Michigan State (now No. 11) , Zappe completed 46-of-64 pass attempts (71.9%) for 488 yards, 7.6 yards per pass attempt, and 3 touchdowns; he was thusly named Conference USA Offensive Player of the Week. The numbers speak for themselves, but Zappe continues to be poised, consistent, and explosive no matter the game, no matter the opponent.

Frank Harris leads the Roadrunners having completed 99-of-144 pass attempts (68.75%) for 1,126 yards, 225.2 yards per game, 7.8 yards per pass attempt, and 6 touchdowns as well as 2 interceptions. In the conference, Harris holds the second-best completion rate. Last week, against UNLV, Harris played his best game of the year completing 24-of-30 pass attempts (80.0%) for 278 yards, 9.2 yards per pass attempt, and 2 touchdowns. Like Zappe, Harris has been consistent all season.

Slowing Zappe and WKU's Air Raid offense has proven to be a difficult task for opponents each week.

Advantage: WKU

Receivers

WKU's success with its Air Raid attack is also a testament to the Hilltoppers' depth, reliability, and explosiveness at receiver. Zappe's go-to guy and fellow Houston Baptist transfer, Jerreth Sterns, has 40 receptions for 546 yards, 13.6 yards per reception, 136.5 yards per game, and 5 touchdowns. Sterns - recently named to the Biletnikoff Watch List- ranks #1 nationally in receptions per game and receiving yards per game as well as #6 in total receiving yards. Behind Sterns is Mitchell Tinsley and Malachi Corley who combine for 48 receptions, 599 yards, and 4 touchdowns. The numbers don't stop there. The receiving corps averages 13.2 yards per reception, 8 receivers have at least 1 touchdown, the unit ranks #8 in PFF's Grade for Pass Routes, Sterns and Tinsley rank in the Top 15 of PFF's Grade for Pass Routes of 20+ Yards, and the list goes on. The combination of seldom dropping the ball and explosiveness makes for a unit hard to contain.

UTSA has quality receivers in Zakhari Franklin, Joshua Cephus, and De'Corian Clark. Franklin leads the receiver corps with 29 receptions for 397 yards, 13.7 yards per reception, and 4 touchdowns. Cephus accounts for 34 receptions, 374 yards, 11.0 yards per reception and 2 touchdowns while Clark adds 17 receptions, 236 yards, 13.9 yards per reception and 2 touchdowns. Going into the game, Franklin is listed as having an undisclosed injury and will be a game-time decision on Saturday.

Advantage: WKU

Running Backs

Typical of an Air Raid offense, WKU is averaging a 32.7% rush rate. The Hilltoppers may not post 100+ yards per game, but they are making the most of each carry with a non-adjusted success rate around 60.0%. Through four games, the ground game has accumulated 90 carries for 316 yards (79.0 yards per game), 3.5 yards per carry, and 3 rushing touchdowns. The Tops' leading rushers - Noah Whittington and Adam Cofield - are averaging 4.4 yards per carry. Against Michigan State, Whittington and Cofield as well as Kye Robichaux, C.J. Jones and Jakairi Moses combined for 19 carries, 89 yards, and 4.7 yards per carry.

On Saturday, WKU's rushing defense will be facing the league's total rushing yards leader in Sincere McCormick (541 yards). Additionally, McCormick has 132 carries, 4.1 yards per carry, 108.2 yards per game, and 6 touchdowns. Behind McCormick is Brenden Brady with 38 carries for 140 yards, 3.7 yards per carry, and 2 touchdowns. Quarterback Frank Harris can also be a threat with his legs with 33 carries, 113 yards, 3.4 yards per carry, and 1 touchdown. McCormick, especially, primes Harris for success. WKU's defense will likely try to contain McCormick in an effort to force Harris into more passing situations.

Advantage: UTSA

Offensive Line

After not allowing a single sack on Zappe during the Indiana game, the Hilltoppers' o-line allowed 3 during the Michigan State game. Nonetheless, pass blocking still ranks #2 with a PFF Grade of 85.0 (the run block ranks #74 with a PFF Grade of 62.3). However, UTSA's pass rush is productive with 35.0 tackles for loss and 13.0 sacks. Zappe has proven he can beat the blitz, but he'll absolutely need the front five to be on their A-game.

Through five games, UTSA has allowed 6 sacks. UTSA's pass block ranks #83 with a PFF Grade of 55.6 and their run block ranks #56 with a PFF Grade of 65.8. Starting right guard Kevin Davis will be out with an ankle injury.

Advantage: WKU

Secondary

Against Indiana and Michigan State, WKU's secondary has allowed 55-of-83 pass attempts (66.3%) for 700 yards (350 yards per game), 8.4 yards per pass attempt, and 1 touchdown. Through four games, the Tops only have 1 pick. If the rushing defense aims to contain McCormick and force Harris into more passing situations, the secondary cannot afford to give up big plays. The Roadrunners rank #13 nationally in time of possession (33:10), so forcing and winning the turnover battle is key versus a run-heavy offense like UTSA. While UTSA runs at a rate of nearly 60.0%, the secondary has to cash in on every opportunity. Antwon Kincade, A.J. Brathwaite Jr., Kahlef Hailassie, Kaleb Oliver, and Beanie Bishop combine for 99 total tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 1.0 sack, 3 pass breakups, and 1 forced fumble. WKU ranks #83 in coverage with a PFF Grade of 64.0.

Through five games, the Roadrunners have allowed 83-of-149 pass attempts (55.7%) for 1,135 yards (227.0 yards per game), and 8 touchdowns as well as forced 3 interceptions. UTSA opponents have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game; now, they'll be facing an aerial attack that averages 45.75 pass attempts per game. Preparing for a 53.5% increase in pass attempts as well as a highly efficient and explosive passing game would be a challenge for any secondary. Rashad Wisdom, Clifford Chattman, Tariq Woolen, Antonio Parks, and Corey Mayfield Jr. combine for 82 total tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 0.5 sacks, 2 interceptions, 8 pass breakups, 1 quarterback hurry, and 2 forced fumbles. UTSA ranks #89 in coverage with a PFF Grade of 63.4

Advantage: WKU

Linebackers

Against Michigan State, WKU linebackers Will Ignont and Demetrius Cain accounted for 8 total tackles and 1 pass breakup. Through four games, they have totaled 42 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 0.5 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 1 quarterback hurry, and 1 fumble recovery. They will need to put an emphasis on run support and force Harris into passing situations but, also, need to be prepared for Harris' mobility.

UTSA's deep linebacker corps has totaled 136 tackles, 20.0 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 9 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 2 forced fumbles. To this point, they have not faced a team that passes at this rate. Trevor Harmanson and Jamal Ligon combine for 43 total tackles, 1.0 tackle for loss, 1 pass breakup, and 1 quarterback hurry. Dadrian Taylor, Clarence Hicks, and Charles Wiley are active with a combined 13.0 tackles for loss, and 7 sacks.

This will be the most productive linebacker corps the Tops have faced so far.

Advantage: UTSA

Defensive Line

Through four games, WKU's rushing defense has allowed 216.0 yards per game, 13 touchdowns, and 4.7 yards per carry. Opponents and their ground attack are consistently able to score as well as control the game and the clock. Like Michigan State's Kenneth Walker III, UTSA will try to exploit WKU's rushing defense with McCormick (and Harris).

However, WKU has been able to consistently put pressure on quarterbacks at the most opportune times. On the season, the d-line has totaled 126 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, 4 pass breakups, 8 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 2 forced fumbles. The Hilltoppers' rushing defense ranks #89 with a PFF Grade of 63.4 and the pass rush ranks #78 with a PFF Grade of 72.7.

UTSA's rushing defense has allowed the fifth fewest yards per game (71.2) in addition to allowing an average of 2.3 yards per carry and 2 touchdowns. The Roadrunners' rushing defense ranks #21 with a PFF Grade of 82.8 and the pass rush ranks #9 with a PFF Grade of 86.8. The d-line has totaled 55 total tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, 4.0 sacks, 12 quarterback hurries, 4 fumble recoveries, and 1 forced fumble. Taking on a reliable Hilltopper o-line and a quarterback who makes quick, accurate decisions will be no easy feat; however, putting pressure on Zappe will be 99.9% of the defense's job Saturday night.

Advantage: UTSA

Special Teams

Punter John Haggerty has punted 6 times for a total of 308 yards, 51.33 yards per punt, and has 3 punts land inside of the 20-yard line. Kicker Brayden Narveson is 5-of-5 on field goals and 19-of-19 on extra point kicks. Jerreth Sterns has 3 punt returns for an average 11.0 yards per return. Beanie Bishop and Joey Beljan total 7 kickoff returns for 170 yards and 24.29 yards per return.

UTSA's Lucas Dean has punted 17 times for a total of 762 yards, 44.82 yards per punt, and with 6 punts inside of the 20-yard line. Kickers Hunter Duplessis and Everett Ornstein are a combined 11-of-15 on field goals, have 1 blocked kick, and Duplessis is 20-of-20 on extra point kicks. Sheldon Jones has 7 punt returns for an average 15.73 yards per return as well as a punt return touchdown. Dadrian Taylor has 4 kickoff returns for 127 yards and 31.75 yards per return.

Advantage: WKU

UTSA is off to a hot 5-0 start while WKU is looking at a 1-3 record. However, the Hilltoppers lost to Army and Indiana by a combined 5 points. Even with a losing record, they remain in PFF's Top 50 Overall Performance Grade. Simply put, WKU may have a 1-3 record, but they don't play like a 1-3 team.

It is a difficult matchup to predict. Will Zappe & Co. be too much for UTSA's defense? Can WKU's defense come up with some timely stops and turnovers? Or is UTSA so balanced and consistent on most fronts that they will continue to churn out win-after-win?

WKU - 38

UTSA - 33

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