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Published Aug 31, 2018
Analyzing the Enemy: Wisconsin Badgers (8/31/18)
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Hannah Page  •  InsideHilltopperSports
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@hanalei91

Day: Friday, August 31

Time: 8:00PM CST

Location: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI

Network: ESPN

Series Record: Wisconsin leads 1-0. The two last played on September 29, 2001 and Wisconsin won 24-6.

Betting Line: Wisconsin by 36.5 according to ESPN

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Position Group Predictions

Quarterback

There is no fair way to compare Drew Eckels to Wisconsin's Alex Hornibrook. Since 2015, Eckels has completed 15 passes out of 24 attempts (62.5%), 214 passing yards, 9.2 yards per pass, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, and his longest pass being 74 yards. Eckels simply has not taken the field enough for us to even begin gauge what he will look like by Game 1. Based on previous interviews, we can anticipate Eckels - or any WKU quarterback - to run a bit more than 2017 (27 yards, 2.3 yards per carry). The Wisconsin defense is far from bad, but the silver lining for Eckels is that the Badgers are rebuilding at cornerback and defensive end.

Since 2016, Hornibrook has averaged 152 completed passes out of 249.5 attempts (60.9%), 1,953 passing yards a season, 7.65 yards per pass, 17 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions a season. In 2017, the [now] junior quarterback completed 198 passes out of 318 attempts (62.3%), 2,644 passing yards (188.9 yards per game), 8.3 yards per pass, 25 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, and his longest touchdown being 61 yards. His mobility is pretty terrible: running on 29 attempts for -101 yards. Hornibrook is good for Wisconsin: a game manager that does not make huge mistakes, however, the team does not necessarily [consistently] win because of his performance. Think of Hornibrook like an upper Tier 2 quarterback.

Advantage: Wisconsin

Running Back

It is too difficult to anticipate how well the Toppers' run game will perform. You know the numbers from 2017 are nothing they want to repeat. There have been questions swirling Wisconsin's defensive line, but they should still be a strong group. Sanford has indicated that the Hilltoppers plan on using five running backs during this matchup to fuel the ground attack.

The Badgers return Jonathan Taylor who led the team in rushing yards and touchdowns as a freshman. In 2017, Taylor ran for 1,977 rushing yards, 6.6 yards per carry, and 13 touchdowns. If you have never watched Taylor, his numbers are comparable to that of FAU's David Singletary. Although WKU's defensive line and linebackers should be experienced and hungry for more major stops, Taylor will be near impossible to contain.

Oh...and Taylor is a top Heisman candidate.

Advantage: Wisconsin

Receivers

From a pure statistical standpoint, WKU's Lucky Jackson accumulated more receiving yards (600) than Wisconsin's A.J. Taylor (475) or Kendric Pryor (179) in 2017. Taylor and Pryor are slotted to start as Quintez Cephus and Danny Davis III are suspended due to sexual assault allegations.

Obviously, fewer receiving yards does not mean a whole lot. While one of the nation's best offensive lines is protecting Hornibrook, he will be able to connect with Taylor, Pryor, or whomever.

WKU's Jackson, Quin Jernighan, Xavier Lane, Jacquez Sloan, and Mik'Quan Deane all had 100+ yard 2017s and return, this season.

Advantage: Wisconsin

Offense Line

ESPN and Athlon Sports ranked Wisconsin's offensive line as...drumroll...#1. Need I say more?

Advantage: Wisconsin

Secondary

Wisconsin will see three defensive backs suit up as first-time starters against WKU. In an interview with Badger 247, Safety Scott Nelson said of the Hilltoppers: "They havea lot of speed at the skill positions. Very fast. A lot of motion, spread em' out, a lot of verticals." In the last five seasons, the Badgers have led all schools in passing efficiency defense.

Meanwhile, WKU's secondary is possibly the best position group and the most veteran group on the team. They return four of five starters from 2017, including Drell Greene (S), Devon Key (S), DeAndre Farris (CB), and Ta'Corian Darden (NB). In 2017, Key registered the second-most tackles on the team with 94. He also had 4.5 tackles for loss, 1 interception, 2 pass breakups, and 1 quarterback hurry. Farris ranked #19 nationally with 14 pass breakups. He totaled 54 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, and 1 interception.

This is the game in which WKU's veteran defense can seize a moment. If WKU's pass rush can exploit Hornibrook's lack of mobility and force him into more deep passes (without two of his best targets), WKU's secondary could create a turnover.

Advantage: looking at purely experience...WKU

Linebackers

The Badgers' inside linebackers are set. T.J. Edwards (2017 Butkus Award runner-up), Ryan Connelly, and Chris Orr have 68 combined starts and have played in 103 games. They are, obviously, experienced playmakers. However, outside linebacker is a different story. The top three players on the outside have 0 starts and only 40 combined games played.

Despite losing lead tackler Joel Iyiegbuniwe, the linebackers are still in a decent position heading into 2018. WKU returns the likes of Ben Holt and Masai Whyte. Additionally, they received a huge pick up from Kentucky transfer and Bowling Green native Eli Brown. This is a solid group with a lot of speed an athleticism. With the return of Demetrius Cain from injury, the Tops' have decent depth at the position. All of the aforementioned will play on Friday: subbing one another to remain fresh and avoid injury.

Advantage: Wisconsin

Defensive Line

Again, there are a few questions swirling about Wisconsin's defensive line. Redshirt sophomore end Isaiahh Loudermilk underwent surgery and could be ready to play by September 22. Junior end Garrett Rand suffered a torn Achilles in June and he is expected to miss the entire 2018 season. It is likely that four freshmen will see playing time.

WKU welcomes back end Carson Jordan and tackle Evan Sayner from season-ending injuries in 2017. While their return is much needed, this does not negate the fact that the Hilltoppers' pass rush and, overall rushing defense, need to improve. In 2017, the Tops only posted 69 tackles for loss and 12 sacks: an obvious drop off from 2016's 87 tackles for loss and 34 sacks.

Advantage: Wisconsin

Special Teams

WKU will be without punter Jake Collins (transferred to Nortwestern), their two best kickoff returners (Cam Echols-Luper and Kylen Towner), and their lead punt returner. Place kicker Ryan Nuss returns after starting in 2017; he connected 10 of 16 FGs and 39 of 40 PATs.

Wisconsin kicker Rafael Gaglianone converted 16 of 18 FGs and 59 of 59 PATs. Badgers' punter Anthony Lotti averaged 40.0 yards per punt with 25 inside of the 20 yard line. Like WKU, Wisconsin will be replacing their primary kickoff and punt returners.

Advantage: Wisconsin

Prediction

Don't expect Wisconsin's ones to play the entire game. After the first half, I would expect WKU to have a bit more opportunity to score.

1st Half

Wisconsin - 27
WKU - 7

2nd Half

Wisconsin - 21
WKU - 10

Wisconsin wins 48-17

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