Kickoff is finally here! In just five days the Hilltoppers will open up the 2020 campaign against in-state rival Louisville as they look to avenge last season's 38-21 loss against the Cards in the Music City Showdown at Nissan Stadium.
The Cardinals return much of their talent from last season's roster with the only notable loss being offensive tackle Mekhi Becton who was selected in the first round of this past spring's 2020 NFL Draft.
Below, I took a look at what Louisville does schematically and what Tyson Helton and company can expect from the Cards this Saturday when they kickoff in the 502.
Offense
Scott Satterfield has really turned this program around offensively in just one year. The Cards towards the end of last season were one of the best in the country at generating chunk plays. Satterfield's offense presents many issues for teams defensively with multiple backs and tight ends in the back field. Louisville is a run-first football team.
They'll attack the perimeter with option looks and pound defenses with stretch, power, off tackle, you name it. If you go back and look at last year's tape of when the Tops and Cards squared off, Louisville did what they could to put pressure on the edges with the read option.
Senior safety Devon Key did a really great job of being the "alley player", meaning the guy who takes the quarterback/running back pitch/keep read and limiting what the Cards gained on those types of plays. If Key takes the same angles that he did and plays as physical as last time, the Hilltoppers will be in great shape against Satterfield's option calls.
However, Louisville owned the ground the last time out against the Hilltoppers. Louisville offensive line coach Dwayne Ledford has done a great job instilling the nastiness and run-you-over mentality in such a short amount of time.
Louisville's offensive line did a great job last season of creating big plays in the zone running game by moving slanting defensive linemen last season. They'll continue to look to do the same Saturday.
The Cards are left more vulnerable this year with the loss of Becton to the NFL. At 6'7 364 pounds, Satterfield constantly tried to ensure that the strong side of most formations were to the left so the explosive backs Louisville has could walk into the second levels of defenses untouched due to Becton's super-human ability to bulldoze guys in the run game.
With Becton gone, Louisville loses their best run blocker from a season ago. Adonis Boone Jr. is projected to fill Becton's spot and has the physical makeup to be a force in Louisville's ground game at 6'5, 298 pounds. Across the board Louisville will look to dominate the four down lineman for the Hilltoppers then have one man from the backside of their formation as well as the tight end/H-back climb to the second level to seal off the linebackers to make it Javian Hawkins/Hassan Hall vs the Tops DBs. As I said, hat on a hat.
The passing game on the other hand is no where near as dynamic as the running game. Redshirt Junior quarterback Micale Cunningham last season finished with the highest passing efficiency in Louisville history at 194.45 by completing 112 of his 179 attempts for 2,065 yards and 22 scores. Louisville is run-first so they can set up Cunningham in comfortable passing situations (i.e. 2nd & medium, 2nd & short, 3rd & short, etc.). Cunningham is a guy who is great when his receivers create space with their speed and route running but isn't as great when it's on him to throw guys open in tight windows.
The bread and butter of the Louisville passing game is play action with a bootleg to give Cunningham the opportunity to complete easy throws with guys moving sideline to sideline or to take off if the defense is playing man to man across the board. Satterfield variates his concepts out of play action; it typically consists of a corner/flat or a levels/read concept with a receiver or tight end running naked in the flat as a check down option.
However, the simplicity of the Louisville passing game lulls its opponents to sleep thus creating opportunities to hit big on shot plays downfield. See the Louisville/Wake Forest game from last season if you need examples of the Cards catching opposing secondaries napping before hitting a big play downfield.
Defense
This Louisville defense is also really, realllyyyy fast.
Bryan Brown's 3-4 defensive front consists of a lot of freak, compact athletes who can be moved all across the field. Brown is not afraid to send his guys in multiple kinds of pressure packages or let his linebackers sit back and play hook/curl zones (middle level of the field) or play Tampa 2 and let the leader of the defense, Dorian Etheridge, fill the middle in between two-high safety looks.
The three down linemen for Louisville's defense are "undersized" per say, but eat up a lot of blocks so the athletic linebacking group can make plays in space/in the backfield. I believe that the WKU offensive line is experienced enough to ensure they get a hat on a hat to prevent the Louisville defense from wrecking havoc early like Rodjay Burns did last year in Music City.
Louisville did not generate a lot of sacks last year as a team, but they have the pieces in Yassir Abdullah Jr. and Rodjay Burns to become the pass rushing outside backers that the Cards did not necessarily have last season. Both are quick twitch athletes who I'm sure on Saturday will have many chances to drop down at the line of scrimmage and play one on one with Cole Spencer and who I assume will be the right tackle for the Tops, Mason Brooks.
The Cards' secondary was really physical with the WKU receiving corps last time out and I expect nothing less with a very experienced DB group returning for the Cardinals. Starting outside corner Chandler Jones returns for the Cards and is expected to be the guy shutdown guy on one half of the field after recording a team-high 10 pass breakups a season ago.
The secondary got left hanging out to dry often last season, primarily because of the lack of ability to generate a pass rush up front. Jones and a few of the other perceived starters for Louisville's defensive backfield are lengthy guys which I believe will present a unique challenge to the inexperienced and undersized WKU receivers.
Overall
The Tops have their hands full this Saturday. This is their best opponent maybe outside of BYU (ask Navy) on the 2020 schedule. Louisville will try to impose their will in the run game, take shots downfield when the time is right, and play fast and physical on defense. To avoid getting hit in the mouth first, the Tops are going to have to take control of the game early and establish their own ground game. If Louisville does it first, it might be a long night in Derby City for the Hilltoppers.