Welcome to the ‘meat’ of WKU Football’s season.

Week One was...Week One. Week Two’s win over FIU was relieving in that 1) the Tops picked up an early conference win, and 2) the issues from Week One seemed to be quickly addressed. Week Three’s loss to Louisville was frustratingly entertaining as the matchup exposed, both, gaps and highlight-worthy, promising plays and playmakers.

To peg this season, thus far, is undoubtedly difficult. It is innate for football aficionados - no matter if a writer, analyst, commentator, fan, or even a coach or player - to want definite answers and/or an accurate representation of the team’s value at any given point.

While record, scoring margin, yards per game, etc. are important statistics, these numbers do not explain the who, what, when, where, why, and how. Fortunately, advanced stats are able to provide a bit more context: using a quantifiable approach to evaluate talent, team and individual ability, per play success, and situational decision making. The stats behind stats, if you will.

Before delving into the advanced stats, it is of utmost importance to note the following: 1) Football’s regular season (12 games) is already a small sample size (especially compared to basketball and baseball). 3 games is made even more minuscule. 2) Advanced stats do not account for intangibles. 3) In an effort to keep to-the-point, please reference "Hilltopper Index" for a more in-depth analysis of advanced stats and their calculations.

What you need to know: Success Rate (SR) is a tool used to measure the efficiency (success) of a play. A first down is considered successful if 50.0% of the needed yards are gained. A second down is successful if 70.0% of the needed yards are gained. Third and fourth downs are successful if 100.0% of the needed yards are gained.

4th downs are a bit of an outlier as most teams opt to punt or kick a field goal rather than go-for-it.

3rd Down SR

1st and 2nd downs give teams a bit of leeway. However, 3rd down conversions are key in keeping a drive alive. What is WKU doing when it matters "most?"

Through the first three games, WKU's offense has a success rate of 40.0% on 3rd downs. The defense is allowing a success rate of only 26.3%; in other words, the defense is coming up clutch and preventing 3rd down conversions.

What you need to know: Explosiveness or explosive plays are exactly as the name indicates: big plays. An explosive play in college football is, typically, a 16+ yard pass or 12+ yard run.

Explosive plays [usually] increase win probability as well as increase expected points. Currently, WKU is averaging 7.3 explosive plays per game and allowing 6 explosive plays per game from opponents.

However, explosive plays are easier said than done as they do not account for attempted explosive plays (e.g., incomplete downfield passes). WKU has attempted several explosive plays, however, the execution was not there. Given time, I would anticipate this average to change.

Pass Yards/Attempt

What you need to know: Historically - in the NFL and college football - pass yards/attempt is [consistently] one of the most highly significant determinants of scoring margins. This is determined by running a multiple regression using eight independent variables (return touchdown differential, penalty yards differential, pass yards/attempt, rush yards/attempt, turnovers, allowed pass yards/attempt, allowed rush yards/attempt, and defensive turnovers).

*Note: The 2019 passing stats are those of Steven Duncan. After a foot injury, Duncan is out for an indefinite time period.*

Currently, WKU is averaging 6.64 pass yards per attempt. Looking at WKU's two best seasons in their FBS career (2015 and 2016), the Hilltoppers' passing attack averaged 9.4 and 10.0 pass yards per attempt, respectively.

Adjusted Pass Yards/Attempt

Expounding upon pass yards per attempt, we can look at adjusted pass yards per attempt. The formula is as follows:

Total passing yards + 20 * touchdowns - 45 * interceptions / pass attempts

Adjusted pass yards per attempt (and adjusted net pass yards per attempt) puts a numerical value to the quarterback's contributions.

Duncan averaged 6.64 PY/A and 6.0 AY/A. The four interceptions throughout Game 1 and Game 2 affected the AY/A. By comparison, Duncan averaged 5.2 PY/A and 5.5 AY/A against Louisville.

What you need to know: Air yards are the total distance that a football is thrown behind the line of scrimmage to the point of reception. Air yards are calculated by taking total passing yards and subtracting the yards after catch. The purpose of analyzing air yards is twofold: 1) it puts a numerical value to who - between the QB and receiver - is contributing most to the play and 2) it reveals if the passing attack is relying on yards after catch.

For the sake of time, I have isolated explosive pass plays.

Through 15 explosive pass plays which totaled 422 yards, Duncan posted 178 air yards (42.2% of explosive pass play yardage). If the Longest Completed Air Distance (LCAD) is accounted for, Duncan threw for 267 yards.

40.0% of explosive pass plays were thrown into tight coverage. 40.0% of explosive pass plays were thrown behind the 1st down marker.

"A coach's proclivity in certain situations, like 2nd-and-short, illustrates his optimization strategy. Essentially, is the coach trying to score or extend the drive (get the first down)? Is he risk-averse or risk-taking? Does he mostly favor the run (first down) or does he choose the pass despite the short yardage (more yards that primes the team to score at a faster clip)? There is a time and place for each. Nothing is ever quite as black and white as we would like it to be." (Hilltopper Index)

Through three games, there are not enough substantial occurrences of 2nd-and-short to determine any tendencies of the coaching staff. If, both, 2nd and 3rd-and-shorts are combined, WKU averages a run rate of 48.0% and a pass rate of 52.0%.

Again, context is important.

As the season progresses, this proclivity can be analyzed from the perspective of pass/run rate per quarter, per scoring margin, and conversion rate based on whether it was a pass or run.

Until then, we can compare per down run and pass rates.

-WKU ranks last in the league in punt returns. Of opponents' 17 punts, only 3 have been returned for -6 yards (-2 per game).

-WKU ranks #3 in the league in punting: averaging 44.8 yards per punt. John Haggerty has averaged 47 yards per punt with 5 inside of the 20.

-WKU has gone-for-it on 30.4% of 4th downs. They have converted 1-of-7 4th down attempts (14.3%). Although is a low conversion rate, data shows that teams should go-for-it more than they do. 4th down conversions increase both expected points and win probability.

-WKU's offensive line ranks #45 in power success rate and #14 in sack rate.

-WKU's defensive line ranks #45 in line yards, #38 in standard downs line yards, #23 in stuff rate, #22 in sack rate, and #20 in standard downs sack rate.