C-USA Football Preview Recap

#14 Charlotte 49ers

Record: 1-11

Wins: UTEP

Losses: Stanford, Houston, FIU, Pittsburgh, Army, UTSA, LATech, UAB, Southern Miss., ODU, North Texas

From 2012-14, Rice posted three consecutive winning seasons, 3 bowl appearances, 2 bowl wins, 1 C-USA West Division champion, and 1 C-USA Championship. However, the program regressed after 2014, with three consecutive losing seasons: each season worse than the previous. In David Bailiff's 11th season, the Owls went 1-11: their worst record since 1988. On November 27, Bailiff was fired. Rice's lone win in 2017 was against an equally struggling UTEP (0-12).

The Owls had the second-worst turnover rate in the nation (-23) and the conference's third-worst offense (331.8 total yards per game).

On December 5, 2017, Stanford associate head coach and offensive coordinator - Mike Bloomgren - was hired as Rice's next head coach.

Quarterback

Quarterback remains up for grabs. In 2017, true freshman Miklo Smalls ultimately edged out Jackson Tyner and Sam Glaesmann for the starting gig. Smalls threw for for 623 yards, 57.3% completion rate, 8.31 yards per pass, 1 touchdown, and 5 interceptions. In addition, Smalls rushed for 308 yards, 3 touchdowns, and averaged 4.8 yards per carry.

First-year head coach Bloomgren stated that Tyner was the "leader in the clubhouse" at the end of the spring practice. During the spring game, Tyner completed 22-40 passes for 243 yards and 2 touchdowns. Smalls missed spring practice for personal reasons while Glaesmann was recovering from a shoulder surgery. In 2017, the three [combined] threw for 1,721 yards, 49.6% completion rate, 7.14 yards per pass, 6 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions.

Considering the current state of signal-caller, do not dismiss walk-on Evan Marshman or Shawn Stankavage, a graduate transfer from Vanderbilt, as possible candidates.

Bottom line: The Owls need a leader and playmaker at quarterback. Someone must emerge and separate themselves from the pack. Passing for 623 yards and 1 touchdown is not going to inch the Owls any closer to their 2018 goals. The good news is that what the quarterbacks' lack in consistency and accuracy, they make up for such setbacks with their mobility. In 2017, the quarterbacks averaged 42.6 carries, 174 rushing yards, 3.63 yards per carry, and 2.3 touchdowns on the season.

Running Back

The Owls' backfield looks to be in pretty good shape: returning their top two running backs. Nahshon Ellerbe ran for 409 yards, averaged 4.8 yards per carry, and 6 touchdowns. Austin Walter posted 400 rushing yards, averaged 5.8 yards per carry, and 4 touchdowns.

After the spring game, the Owls can expect Emmanuel Esukpa to be a contributor in the 2018 campaign. During the spring game, Esukpa carried the ball 17 times for 165 yards and one explosive 45-yard touchdown run.

If the Owls can find consistency at quarterback, the running corps could explode. But, there is the issue of the offensive line...

Receivers

Aaron Cephus returns after a record-breaking season for the Owls: setting a freshman mark with 622 receiving yards and tying Rice's freshman record of 5 touchdowns. Additionally, Cephus led the league with 24.9 yards per catch and was third in the nation with six 50-yard plus plays. He can be a big-play component if a quarterback has time and can get to him.

The previously mentioned Austin Walter, as well as Kylen Granson, will be factors at receiver. In 2017, Walter posted 219 receiving yards, 12.2 yards per reception, and 1 touchdown. Cephus and Walter were the only two receivers to score a touchdown. Granson had 241 receiving yards and 13.4 yards per reception.

Unfortunately, there are many unknowns at quarterback and receiver. The experience is there; however, everyone will have to do a lot more. Otherwise, 2018 could look like 2017.

Offensive Line

Simply put, Rice is replacing four starters on the o-line. That is a tough task for any program, let alone one that has been struggling for a while.

Key to the Offense in 2018

Do not give the ball away

This will be the only key. Yes, a quarterback must emerge. Yes, the running corps must remain reliable. Yes, receivers must make some big-plays. Yes, the offensive line must quickly rebuild.

Step 1 is to stop giving the ball away. Learn from the mistake and move on.

Secondary

Despite an early departure from safety J.T. Ibe, the Owls still have a veteran presence with Brandon Douglas-Dotson. Douglas-Dotson totaled 31 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 1 interception, 7 pass breakups, and 8 passes defended. D'Angelo Ellis should, also, play a larger role in 2018.

Although the aforementioned personnel return, the secondary should have a new look. The Owls only had 3 interceptions in 2017: second fewest in the nation. Newly hired defensive coordinator Brian Smith spent the 2016-17 seasons with Michigan as the secondary coach. It should be noted that Michigan's passing defense led the nation under Smith's direction.

Expect Smith to implement a 3-4 base but may use five defensive backs a healthy amount.

Linebackers

There will be a tall task of replacing strong-side linebacker Emmanuel Ellerbee, who had a team-high 120 tackles (6.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 2 passes defended, 1 quarterback hurry, and 1 fumble recovery).

Martin Nwakamma will return as the mike after totaling 40 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 1 pass breakup, and 1 pass defended in 2017. Dylan Silcox (interior) and Anthony Ekpe (strong-side) will step into a much larger role in 2018.

The depth is just not there.

Defensive Line

Tragedy struck the program in March 2018 when defensive end Blain Padgett passed away in his sleep.

Moving forward, the Owls return the likes of Zach Abercrumbia, Roe Wilkins, and Graysen Schantz.

In 2017:

-Abercrumbia posted 37 total tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 blocked kick.
-Wilkins totaled 32 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks, 2 quarterback hurries, and 1 forced fumble
-Schantz had 19 total tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, and 2 quarterback hurries

The pass rush was decent in 2017, registering 28.0 sacks; this statistic was good for #5 in the league. Overall, the defensive line gives Rice a bit of hope.

Key to the Defense in 2018

More takeaways

It will be difficult after losing their top 3 linebackers and top 2 safeties, but the Owls must force their foes into making more mistakes. 3 interceptions and 4 forced fumbles in 2017...that is all. To put it into perspective, UTEP (0-12) had 6 interceptions and 7 forced fumbles. East Carolina (AAC) - who was arguably one of the worst defenses in 2017 - posted 7 interceptions and 7 forced fumbles.

-Punter Jack Fox led C-USA with a 44.2-yard average. 17 of those punts were at least 50 yards.
-The Owls only attempted 5 field goals in 2017; Will Harrison went 2-of-4. Harrison was a perfect 21-21 on PATs.
-Returns were minimal with 659 total yards and an average of 17.8 yards per return.

Although a complete turnaround in 2018 does not seem probable, Mike Bloomgren seems to be a good fit at Rice. Give him a couple of years, and Rice may look vastly different. They are smart guys (high marks in APR) who can and will adapt to a new coach and scheme.

The trouble with 2018 will be replacing four of five starting offensive linemen. If the o-line is not at best "so-so," then the entire offense will be in a world of hurt. It all starts up front. The defense losing 3 of their best linebackers and 2 of their best safeties does not bode well from a depth-perspective, either.

Key to the 2018 Season

Stay in the game

No, it is not likely that you will see Rice with a winning 2018 campaign. A 5-7 or 4-8 season seems doubtful, as well. Improvement does not always come in the form of a winning record or a monumental win. In 2017, the Owls scored an average of 16.25 points while allowing 35.75. If Rice can simply stay in the game on both sides of the ball, 2018 will be a success.

August 25 vs. Prairie View
September 1 vs. Houston
September 8 @ Hawai'i
September 22 @ Southern Miss
September 29 @ Wake Forest
October 6 vs. UTSA
October 13 vs. UAB
October 20 @FIU
October 27 @ North Texas
November 3 vs. UTEP
November 10 @ LATech
November 17 @ LSU
November 24 vs. ODU

Projected Record: 3-10
Projected Wins: Prairie View, Hawai'i, ODU

The combination of Bloomgren, his hires, and a smart group of players points to the positive. They are fully capable of wins over Prairie View, Hawai'i, and a conference win: possibly UTEP or an upset over ODU.