As our countdown nears its end we get the final in a long line of birds of prey in CUSA. Which also means our awful flying puns continue as the Golden Eagles of Southern Miss soar in at our #2 position.
Success Overnight
As we finish off the final two teams in our predictions we get to potential division champions. While the East division of C-USA is loaded at the top with talent with teams like WKU, Marshall, and MTSU. Southern Miss seems like a near can't miss prospect as favorites in the West division. The Golden Eagles have always been near the top of the conference standings aside from a few years here or there.
On paper the 2016 version of Southern Miss looks to be one that should strike fear into most of the opponents on it's schedule. The Golden Eagles finished 2015 with a 9-5 record losing only 1 regular season conference game. Of course we all know Southern Miss was decidedly edged out by WKU in the C-USA Championship game 45-28. Still to finish the season 9-5 after only winning 3 games in 2014 was a major jump.
All seemed to be going the right direction for the Golden Eagles. Although Head Coach Todd Monken's name was being brought up in discussion for other jobs it seemed like he was ready to return to Southern Miss for 2016. However, in January with national signing day looming in the coming weeks. Monken chose to become the new offensive coordinator for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and take is college success to the NFL level.
Enter new Jay Hopson as the new head coach. Hopson, who spent 6 seasons at Southern Miss under then head coach Jeff Brower, makes the move from the FCS ranks at Alcorn St. Hopson led ASU to a respectable 28-10 record in his final 3 seasons to go along with 2 SWAC titles. Hopson inherits a solid group of returning players in 2016. Even with the coaching change expectations are high for the Golden Eagles.
On Offense
In 2015 the Golden Eagle offensive attack was a sight to behold. QB Nick Mullens is back after throwing for 4,476 and 38 touchdowns in 2015. Mullens does lose a lot of his supporting cast. Southern Miss had two 1,000+ yard rushers in 2015. While Jalen Richard is gone to graduation the Golden Eagles do return junior Ito Smith who finished 2015 with 1,128 yards on the ground.
Mullens did a good job of spreading the wealth to his receivers last season. Completing passes to 13 different players in 2015. The top 2 targets in Mike Thomas (LA Rams) and Casey Martin (CFL) are gone though. Thomas and Martin combined for 21 touchdowns and 2,316 receiving yards in 2015, which is over half of the total yards and touchdowns the Golden Eagles accumulated through the air. It will be up to senior D.J. Thompson to shoulder more of a load in 2016. Thompson finished the 2015 season with 55 catches for 779 yards and 6 touchdowns. It will be up to other players like junior Marquise Ricard who will be returning from injury and sophomore Korey Robertson to elevate their game to the next level.
Along the offensive front the Golden Eagles should be solid along the interior offensive line with 3 starters returning including all conference center Cameron Tom. However, starting tackles Rashod Hill and Norman Price who combined for 57 career starts are both gone. Junior Jerry Harris has 4 career starts and is the only returning tackle with any starting experience. Southern Miss is high on freshman Ty Pollard at left tackle with senior Jacob Fleming battling at right tackle. QB protection could be more of an issue this season then it was in 2015.
The Bottom Line
With experience play makers in Mullens and Ito Smith back along with some depth on the interior of the offensive line the USM offense should once again be a dynamic unit. However, with the head coaching change and a few key players gone the offensive could still see a step back from last seasons production.
On Defense
The Golden Eagles relied on creating "Havoc" in 2015. The aggressive defensive philosophy was meant to force opponents into 3rd and long situations. New coach Jay Hopson chose not to retain defensive coordinator David Duggan. Instead Hopson brought defensive coordinator Tony Pecoraro with him from Alcorn St. While new coordinators can sometimes signal a change in the defensive identity. Hopson and Pecoraro actually ran a more aggressive defense at Alcorn St which resulted in 46 sacks and 119 tackles for a loss. Alcorn St also finished with a 23.2% havoc rate. That would have been #1 in FBS last season. The downside to the aggressive defense is giving up big plays and penalties....lots and lots of penalties. Pecoraro's defense last season amassed and amazing 118 penalties in 2015. The Golden Eagles will give Hopson and Pecoraro a lot of experience to work with in 2016 returning a large protion of their defensive line and secondary.
The defensive front will be anchored by defensive ends Dylan Bradley and Xavier Thigpen. Bradley may be moved to an interior line position to help negate the loss of nose tackle Andrew Bolton. This would allow Thigpen to pair with one of junior Naim Mustafaa or Darian Yancey at the end spots. Bradley and Thigpen combined for 11 sacks and 17 tackles for a loss in 2015. Having those two back will keep the defensive front dangerous.
Linebacker is where Southern Miss could see a lapse in production from 2015. 3 of the top 4 are gone including MLB Brian Anderson who anchored the unit with 83 total tackles. Senior OLB Elijah Parker returns however. Parker finished with 47 tackles and 7.5 tackles for a loss in 2015. The Golden Eagles should also receive help from Jordan Harris who transferred from Iowa St and will be eligible to play immediately.
The Golden Eagles secondary returns pretty much everyone. Though it does have one big hole to fill with the departure of Kalan Reed (Mr Irrelevant in 2016 NFL draft). The loss of Reed cannot be overstated. This guy was an absolute ball hawk. Reed finished 2015 with 4 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles, 2 fumbles recovered, 19 pass break ups, 23 passes defended, to go along with his 56 tackles. That is a lot of production to try and fill the void of. The return of safety D'Nerius Antoine brings back the team leader in total tackles with 103. Safety Picasso Nelson of the all C-USA name team also returns with his 59 total tackles which were 3rd on the team. Guys like Cornell Armstrong, Curtis Mikell, Trae Collins, and Devontre Parnell (Louisville grad transfer) will be expected to take big strides this season to help avoid big plays with an extremely aggressive front 7.
Bottom Line
The Golden Eagle defense does return a lot of experience and play making ability. Overcoming the loss of Kalan Reed in the secondary could prove difficult, but several players are ready for their turn to step up and prove themselves. This ultra aggressive unit will most surely give up a lot of big plays in 2016. The Golden Eagles will struggle against teams with superior athleticism. Though that should not be a problem with most of their schedule.
Schedule & Prediction:
Sept. 3 @Kentucky
Sept. 10 Savannah St.
Sept. 17 Troy
Sept. 24 @UTEP
Oct. 1 Rice
Oct. 8 @UTSA
Oct. 15 @LSU
Oct. 29 Marshall
Nov. 5 Charlotte
Nov. 12 @Old Dominion
Nov. 19 @North Texas
Nov. 25 La Tech
Prediction: 10-2 with wins over Kentucky, Savannah St, Troy, UTEP, Rice, UTSA, Charlotte, Old Dominion, North Texas, La Tech.
Coaching changes are always difficult to project how they will affect teams. The defense will be solid. The offense will depend on how well Mullens get's along with his new coach and whether or not other play makers step up to help out. I think the Golden Eagles have enough returning they are the clear favorite to win the west division crown for the second year in a row and get back to the C-USA Championship game.
