We now enter the top 3 of our C-USA Football Preview series.
To preface...
Before feelings get hurt and complaints from die hard fans are sure to ensue, it should go without saying that the top 3 and even 4 in our countdown are talented teams. At this point, it is anyone's game…but someone has to be #1 and someone has to be #14.
So, without further ado, we bring you the…
#3 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (I believe the kids say these days “Don’t @ me.”)
2016 Recap
Wins: Alabama A&M, Bowling Green, Louisiana Tech, North Texas, Missouri, FIU, Charlotte, FAU
Losses: Vanderbilt, WKU, UTSA, Marshall, Hawaii
MTSU was flying high as of October 29, 2016. They were 6-2 and their only losses were against Vanderbilt and an overtime loss to WKU (the eventual C-USA Champions). However, back-to-back losses on November 5 and November 12 to UTSA and Marshall inevitably sealed the Blue Raiders fate: no C-USA East title...ergo, no C-USA Championship appearance. MTSU still ended their season 8-5 and appeared in the 2016 Hawaii Bowl against Hawaii; however, the Blue Raiders lost to the Rainbow Warriors 52-35.
In many ways it was both a good and disappointing season. The 8-5 record was a Blue Raider best since 2013 (also 8-5). However, it felt like – at times – that MTSU was more of a 10-2 or 9-3 team. The win against Missouri certainly made headlines, but the Blue Raiders’ losses to UTSA and Marshall ultimately overshadowed the win against Missouri a bit. The Brent Stockstill injury obviously did not help matters either.
Will 2017 provide more stability? Will 2017 be the Blue Raiders best chance at a crown?
2017 Preview
Offense
If you have not heard of quarterback Brent Stockstill, where have you been?
Stockstill (along with a certain WKU quarterback) is regarded as one of the two best quarterbacks in C-USA. His name appears in several national award watch lists for the upcoming season. In 2016, Stockstill threw for 3,233 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Not only is that impressive, but those numbers are through 10 of the 13 games. Against UTSA, Stockstill suffered from a broken collarbone that kept him out of the rest of the game as well as against Marshall, Charlotte, and FAU. A shoulder surgery on his left [throwing] shoulder sidelined him during spring ball and he was on a pitch count at the beginning of the fall training camp. Stockstill is now "100%" and definitely has some solid weapons to choose from.
The dynamic duo of Stockstill and Richie James returns this season. James is not only Stockstill's best target, but one of the nation's best receivers, as well. As a freshman in 2015, James accumulated 1,346 receiving yards, 8 receiving touchdowns, 146 rushing yards, and 1 rushing touchdown; in 2016, he posted 1,625 receiving yards, 12 receiving touchdowns, 339 rushing yards, and 4 rushing touchdowns. Like Stockstill, the awards and watch lists have been accumulating for James. Ty Lee will be another name to know. In 2016, Lee put up 699 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns. In a Tweet, James said of Lee:
Patrick Smith also returns. Smith had 332 receiving yards and 4 receiving touchdowns in 2016.
While the other position groups are stacked, there is an intriguing battle between Terelle West* and Shane Tucker at running back. The departure of star running back I'Tavius Mathers led to the competition, and it will be extremely difficult to replace the first player in the history of the FBS to have 1,500 rushing yards, 500 receiving yards and 60 catches in a single season. Mathers, as well as Richie James and Brent Stockstill had more rushing yards than West in 2016 (187 yards and 1 touchdown). Tucker spent 2015 as the starting running back, transitioned to wide receiver in the spring of 2016, and missed the entire 2016 regular season due to a broken leg.
*West has a right knee injury and underwent arthroscopic surgery on Aug. 15. With West out for the time being, that leaves Desmond Anderson, Maurice Gordon, as well as Tucker.
The Blue Raiders offensive line returns all-conference candidate (RG) Chandler Brewer and starting RT Carlos Johnson. However, they must replace second-team All - C-USA pick Daniel Stephens.
Defense
The newly hired defensive coordinator - Scott Shafer - inherits a defense with six starters. However, the Blue Raiders have lost their top five defensive linemen from the 2016 campaign. Tyshun Render and tackle Malik Manciel have some experience, and Walter Brady - a transfer from Missouri - also joins the defensive line. Overall, the line is a bit undersized and will have to play even more aggressively to make up for the fact.
While there may be some concern with the defensive line, there is very little to be worried about at linebacker. Chris Melton returns after a 2016 campaign as the team's leading tackler (102) as well as accumulated 6.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 2 quarterback hurries, 1 forced fumble, and 1 fumble recovery. Melton, D.J. Sanders, Myles Harges, and Darius Harris all have started at least 7 games.
Likewise, the secondary should be fine with the starting experience of
-corner Mike Minter (49 total tackles, 2 interceptions, 10 pass breakups, 2 quarterback hurries, 1 fumble recovery)
-safety Jovante Moffatt (76 total tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 3 pass breakups)
-safety Alex Dale (61 total tackles, 0.5 tackles for loss, 5 pass breakups, 1 forced fumble)
-safety Darryl Randolph (63 total tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 2 pass breakups)
Charvarius Ward will likely fill the vacant corner spot (26 total tackles, 2 interceptions, 5 pass breakups, 1 quarterback hurry, 1 fumble recovery).
Special Teams
Kicker Canon Rooker earned first-team all-conference after his 2016 performance: converting 16/19 field goal attempts and making 64/66 extra points. Punter Matt Bonadies also returns, but took a slight step back in 2016. As a freshman, Bonadies averaged 41.3 yards per punt, and as a sophomore he averaged 38.8 yards. 16 of his 58 punts landed inside the 20 yard line.
Summary
It is undeniable that the Blue Raiders return a lot of talent. But like any other team, there are the concerns, as well. On offense, they have to replace the likes of I'Tavius Mathers: the lead rusher and #2 receiver in 2016. Replacing Mr. Everything can be a daunting task. However, having Richie James will more than suffice. On defense - after allowing nearly 200 rushing yards per game (#83 in the nation) - the Blue Raiders are going to have to stop the run while continuing to strengthen their defensive front. Finally, special teams - especially punting, kickoff returns, and punt returns - will have to improve from their #100 in the nation efficiency rating in 2016.
Coach Stockstill and Company certainly have the right pieces. Now, they are tasked with putting that puzzle together with a more difficult schedule than last season.
Schedule & Prediction:
Sept. 2 vs Vanderbilt
Sept. 9 @ Syracuse
Sept. 16 @ Minnesota
Sept. 23 vs Bowling Green
Oct. 30 @ FAU
Oct. 7 vs FIU
Oct. 14 @ UAB
Oct. 20 vs Marshall
Nov. 4 vs UTEP
Nov. 11 @ Charlotte
Nov. 17 @ WKU
Nov. 25 vs Old Dominion
Record: 8-4
Projected Wins: Syracuse, Bowling Green, FIU, UAB, Marshall, UTEP, Charlotte, and Old Dominion
Projected Losses: Vanderbilt, Minnesota, FAU, WKU
Previous Rankings:
