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Published Sep 10, 2018
Stats & Facts: WKU's Offense
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Hannah Page  •  InsideHilltopperSports
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@hanalei91

Looking beyond standard statistics, let us take a look at some interesting stats and notes throughout the first two games.

Kyle Fourtenbary has three targets and three receptions

The TE has been targeted 3 times in 2 games, with three receptions, 15.7 yards per reception, and a 100% success rate. His receptions come in during the latter half of the ball game. Against Wisconsin, his 2 receptions were toward the end of the third quarter. Against Maine, his lone reception was with a little over two minutes left in the fourth.

Xavier Lane is the most targeted receiver

Lane has been targeted a total of 18 times: 6 more than the second-most targeted receiver. He has 5 receptions (2.5 per game) and a completion rate of 27.7%.

Success Rates for Receivers & Running Backs

The below tables illustrate position-specific stats as well as success rates. A play is "successful" if:

-On 1st down, 50% of the required yardage is gained
-On 2nd down, 70% of the required yardage is gained
-On 3rd/4th down, 100% of the required yardage is gained

For receivers, it is possible to have a low completion rate but high success rate and vice versa (excluding incompletes and plays with a penalty). If a receiver has a low completion rate but high success rate, they are not catching the ball at a constant clip, but when they do make the catch, they are gaining the required [or more] yardage. If a receiver has a high completion rate but low success rate, they are catching the ball consistently, but not gaining the required yardage.

Most Targeted Receivers and Tight Ends
TargetsRec.Comp. RateSuccess Rate of Receptions (excluding incompletes & plays w/ penalty)

Xavier Lane

18

5

27.7%

80.0%

Quin Jernighan

12

7

58.3%

71.4%

Lucky Jackson

11

8

72.7%

75.0%

Mik'Quan Deane

11

6

54.5%

83.3%

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Running Backs with Most Carries
CarriesYards Per CarryLongSuccess Rate of Carries (excluding plays w/ penalty)

Garland LaFrance

9

4.1

13

44.4%

Gino Appleberry

8

3.5

8

25.0%

Marquez Trigg

8

1.3

5

25.0%

D'Andre Ferby

6

4.7

15

33.3%

Joshua Samuel

6

3.7

6

50.0%

Garland LaFrance is the most balanced running back

Among running backs, LaFrance has the most carries, second most yards per carry, the second longest run, and the second best success rate.

LaFrance is, also, an option at receiver

Through two games, LaFrance has been targeted 7 times, with 7 receptions, 100% completion rate, and a success rate of 29%. LaFrance hauled in a 75 yard reception and touchdown against Maine with 7 minutes left in the fourth.

Lucky Jackson is the most reliable receiver

He has the third most targets, but the most receptions/completion rate, as well as a 75.0% success rate. He is responsible for 50.0% of the team's touchdowns.

Davis Shanley did not see the field against Maine

Against Wisconsin, Shanley looked to be a mobile quarterback with 3 carries, 31 rushing yards, and 10.3 yards per carry.

Kevaris Thomas saw the field once against Maine. He ran for 5 yards on 3rd & 4.

7 allowed sacks and 11 tackles for loss allowed

After only allowing 1 sack on QB Drew Eckels during the Wisconsin matchup, Maine sacked Eckels 6 times. Currently, the Tops rank #112 in allowed sacks.

Additionally, WKU has allowed 11 tackles for loss (5.5 per game).

3rd Down Conversions

WKU has 32 third down attempts, but only 8 conversions (25.0% conversion rate). This statistic puts them at #120 in the nation.

Redzone Offense

The redzone offense ranks last, nationally, with 4 redzone attempts, 0 redzone rushing touchdowns, 0 redzone passing touchdowns, 1 field goal made, and a total of 1 redzone score (FG).

There have been 5 explosive passing plays (20+ yards)

Through 2 games, there have been 5 explosive passing plays. Of those 5 plays, 3 were touchdown passes. 1 explosive play set the team up for a field goal, but the kick was blocked.

There have been 5 explosive running plays (10+ yards)

Through 2 games, there have been 5 explosive running plays. Of those 5 plays, 1 has been part of a scoring drive. Quarterbacks Drew Eckels and Davis Shanley were responsible for 3 of the 5 explosive running plays.

There have been 0 rushes with more than 15 yards.

Success Rate and Points Per Play (non-adjusted)

A positive correlation between successful AND points per play are crucial for a win (in addition to the drive-finishing battle, field position battle, and turnover battle). If you win the efficiency battle (success rate), you have an 83% chance of winning. If you win the explosiveness battle (points per play), you have an 86% chance of winning. Explosiveness is the leading determinate in winning percentage.

A correlation has yet to exist, because there have not been enough games played. However, data can still be analyzed. An average success rate would be over 0.416/41.6%.

If you exclude incompletes, WKU is averaging a success rate of 0.4655; however, with incompletes, that average drops to 0.3455. This is a 25.8% decrease. In other words, incomplete passes are damaging the success rate. In addition, WKU has a below average points per play.

To put it simply, if you have the success rate, but not the points per play, it means that the team is having difficulty scoring at a constant clip.

Success Rate and Points Per Play
SR (w/out incompletes)SR (w/ incompletes)PPP

0.468

0.344

0.046875

0.463

0.347

0.3888

Average: 0.4655

Average: 0.3455

Average: 0.217878

Tempo

If you were to isolate WKU's most up-tempo plays and drives (the first quarter and end of the fourth quarter) of the Maine game, they would have a success rate of, roughly, 72.7%.

During this up-tempo, WKU passed 54.5% and ran 45.5% of the time.

-91.6% of the passes were successful
-50.0% of the runs were successful.


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