74.5% Post Game Win Probability

According to Bill Conley's "Week 3 college football Five Factors box scores," WKU had a post game win probability of 74.5%. The Hilltoppers had 1 more drive, 22 more plays, 136 more yards, 0.33 more yards per play, and a 10% better success rate than Louisville.

Success Rates for Receivers & Running Backs

The below tables illustrate position-specific stats as well as success rates. A play is "successful" if:

-On 1st down, 50% of the required yardage is gained
-On 2nd down, 70% of the required yardage is gained
-On 3rd/4th down, 100% of the required yardage is gained

For receivers, it is possible to have a low completion rate but high success rate and vice versa (excluding incompletes and plays with a penalty). If a receiver has a low completion rate but high success rate, they are not catching the ball at a constant clip, but when they do make the catch, they are gaining the required [or more] yardage. If a receiver has a high completion rate but low success rate, they are catching the ball consistently, but not gaining the required yardage.

The following stats exclude incompletes and plays with penalties.

Quin Jernighan and D'Andre Ferby's Success Rate

Jernighan (WR) and Ferby (RB) improved their success rate the most out of any skill position players.

Prior to Louisville, Jernighan had 12 targets, 7 receptions, and a success rate of 71.4%. After the Louisville game, he had 17 targets, 11 receptions, and improved his success rate to 81.8%. Jernighan was responsible for 4 receptions, 66 receiving yards, 16.5 yards per reception, and a long of 28 yards. His 28 yard reception set QB Davis Shanley up for a 3 yard touchdown run.

Before the game, Ferby had 6 carries, 3.7 yards per carry, a long of 15 yards, and a success rate of 33.3%. After the game, Ferby had 22 carries, 4.6 yards per carry, and greatly increased his success rate to 47.6.%. During WKU's first touchdown drive versus Louisville (a 9 yard touchdown pass from Shanley to Fourtenbary), Ferby accounted for 29 yards, 4.1 yards per carry, and a success rate of 57.14%.

194 yards

Both Garland LaFrance and Lucky Jackson account for 194 total yards each. The multifaceted, scatback LaFrance is responsible for 71 rushing yards, 123 receiving yards, and 1 touchdown. Jackson has 193 receiving yards, 1 rushing yard, and 2 touchdowns.

Improved Ground Attack

The aforementioned running backs averaged 3.46 yards per carry through two games. After the Louisville game, this number improved to 3.86. As a team, WKU is averaging 3.1 yards per carry. Two backs - Garland LaFrance and Joshua Samuel - are averaging over 5.0 yards per carry. Through three matchups, WKU has averaged 111.3 yards per game.

Additionally, four out of five running backs improved their success rate.

3rd Down Conversions

Through first two games: WKU had 32 third down attempts, but only 8 conversions (25.0% conversion rate). This statistic put them at #120 in the nation.

Through three games: WKU has 49 third down attempts, and 17 conversions (34.7% conversion rate). This statistic puts them at #99 in the nation: jumping 21 spots.

Redzone Offense

The redzone offense still ranks last nationally, with 8 redzone attempts, 1 redzone rushing touchdowns, 1 redzone passing touchdowns, 2 field goal made, and a total of 4 redzone scores.

There have been 8 explosive passing plays (20+ yards)

Through 3 games, there have been 8 explosive passing plays. Of those 8 plays, 3 were touchdown passes. 1 explosive play was part of a touchdown drive. 3 explosive plays set the team up for a field goal, but the kicks were blocked.

There have been 9 explosive running plays (10+ yards)

Through 3 games, there have been 9 explosive running plays. Of those 9 plays, 2 have been part of a scoring drive.

There have been 0 rushes with more than 20 yards.

Success Rate and Points Per Play (non-adjusted)

A positive correlation between successful AND points per play are crucial for a win (in addition to the drive-finishing battle, field position battle, and turnover battle). If you win the efficiency battle (success rate), you have an 83% chance of winning. If you win the explosiveness battle (points per play), you have an 86% chance of winning. Explosiveness is the leading determinate in winning percentage.

A correlation has yet to exist, because there have not been enough games played. However, data can still be analyzed. An average success rate would be over 0.416/41.6%.

If you exclude incompletes, WKU is averaging a success rate of 0.5113; however, with incompletes, that average drops to 0.397. This is a 22.4% decrease. In other words, incomplete passes are damaging the success rate. In addition, WKU has a below average points per play.

To put it simply, if you have the success rate, but not the points per play, it means that the team is having difficulty scoring at a constant clip.

Tempo

If you were to isolate WKU's most up-tempo plays and drives (the fourth quarter) of the Louisville game, they would have a success rate of, roughly, 77%.

During this up-tempo, WKU passed 46% and ran 54% of the time.

-83.3% of the passes were successful
-71.4% of the runs were successful.