Success Rate for Receivers & Running Backs

The below tables illustrate position-specific stats as well as success rates. A play is "successful" if:

-On 1st down, 50% of the required yardage is gained
-On 2nd down, 70% of the required yardage is gained
-On 3rd/4th down, 100% of the required yardage is gained

For receivers, it is possible to have a low completion rate but high success rate and vice versa (excluding incompletes and plays with a penalty). If a receiver has a low completion rate but high success rate, they are not catching the ball at a constant clip, but when they do make the catch, they are gaining the required [or more] yardage. If a receiver has a high completion rate but low success rate, they are catching the ball consistently, but not gaining the required yardage.

The following stats exclude incompletes and plays with penalties.

The emergence of Joshua Samuel

Samuel has quietly emerged as the team's lead running back. After four games, he has accumulated 161 rushing yards, 5.2 yards per carry, a long of 17 yards, and 1 touchdown. 57.7% of his total rushing yards came from the Ball State game in which Samuel ran for 93 yards.

Reliable Quarterbacks

WKU has now seen three different starting quarterbacks: Drew Eckels, Davis Shanley, and Steven Duncan. Each has started due to one another's injuries. However, each has proven to be deeply dependable. Throughout the Louisville game and first half of the Ball State game, Shanley was responsible for 398 passing yards, a completion rate of 67.55%, 1 passing touchdown, 24 rushing yards, and 1 rushing touchdown. He is a tenacious quarterback: one that can take a hit and deliver the next play. After Shanley's injury during the Ball State game, Duncan stepped up and went 12-16 (75.0%), threw for 94 yards, 2 passing touchdowns, and rushed for 55 yards. The game ball was given to Duncan after such a performance.

Improved Ground Attack: Continued

The Hilltopper ground attack has, now, posted back-to-back 100+ yard games. The only game in which WKU did not near 100 rushing yards was against Maine (42 yards). Keeping in mind last year's statistics (last, nationally), WKU is ranked #93 in total rushing yards, #102 in yards per game, and #109 in yards per attempt. If Maine is to be an outlier, the Tops would average 162 yards per game and rank around the #86 mark.

3rd Down Conversions

Through three games: WKU has 49 third down attempts, and 17 conversions (34.7% conversion rate). This statistic puts them at #99 in the nation: jumping 21 spots from week two.

Through four games: WKU has 64 third down attempts, and 26 conversions (40.6% conversion rate). This statistic puts them at #63 in the nation: jumping 36 spots from week three.

Redzone Offense

The redzone offense no longer ranks last nationally. They move up 4 spots to #125 with 12 redzone attempts, 3 redzone rushing touchdowns, 3 redzone passing touchdowns, 2 redzone field goals made, 8 total redzone scores, and a redzone percent of 66.7%.

13 explosive passing plays (20+ yards)

Through 4 games, the Tops have posted 13 explosive passing plays. Of those 13 plays, 4 were touchdown passes. 2 explosive plays were part of a touchdown drive. 3 explosive plays set the team up for a field goal, but the kicks were blocked.

15 explosive running plays (10+ yards)

Through 4 games, the Tops have posted 15 explosive running plays. Of those 15 plays, 7 have been part of a scoring drive.

QB Steven Duncan is responsible for the team's sole 20+ yard rush.

Success Rate and Points Per Play (non-adjusted)

A positive correlation between successful AND points per play are crucial for a win (in addition to the drive-finishing battle, field position battle, and turnover battle). If you win the efficiency battle (success rate), you have an 83% chance of winning. If you win the explosiveness battle (points per play), you have an 86% chance of winning. Explosiveness is the leading determinate in winning percentage.

An average success rate would be over 0.416/41.6%. WKU's correlation between SR and (non-adjusted/nonEqPPP) PPP: 0.56365. This is a moderate positive, correlation, which means there is a tendency for high X variable scores (success rate) to go with high Y variable scores (points per play) and vice versa.

If you exclude incompletes, WKU is averaging a success rate of 0.533; however, with incompletes, that average drops to 0.423. This is a 20.6% decrease. In other words, incomplete passes impact success rate. In addition, WKU has a below average points per play.

To put it simply, if you have the success rate, but not the points per play, it means that the team is having difficulty scoring at a constant clip.

Tempo

If you were to isolate WKU's most up-tempo plays and drives (3rd quarter, 13 plays) of the Ball State game, they would have a success rate of, roughly, 69.23%.

During this up-tempo, WKU passed 38.46% and ran 61.54%.

-80.0% of the passes were successful
-62.5% of the runs were successful.